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UNI

Northern Iowa 9 at Iowa State 30

ISU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadUNI aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreUNI score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:10 · Noah Pettinger punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Home team on offense+7.8Score differential+2.8Pregame prior+17.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Garbage-time factor+0.4Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:21: Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK) — ISU win probability +3.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 10:27: Timeout Iowa State, clock 10:27 — ISU win probability +5.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:48: Tyler Moore 14 Yd pass from Rocco Becht ( PAT failed) — ISU win probability +5.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:08: Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 36 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK) — ISU win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:30: Desmond Hutson 3 Yd pass from Theo Day (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — UNI win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UNI has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UNI made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 11:17UNI 4th & 2 at UNI 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:21UNI 4th & 6 at UNI 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:21ISU 4th & 1 at UNI 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    70.7%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:13UNI 4th & 10 at UNI 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:07ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 19, up 14
    Close callPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:39UNI 4th & 11 at UNI 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:42ISU 4th & 4 at UNI 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:10UNI 4th & 8 at UNI 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:15ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:45UNI 4th & 2 at UNI 39, down 14
    Close callPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:03UNI 4th & 10 at ISU 14, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:29ISU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54UNI 4th & 20 at midfield, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:34ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 19, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:54ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:56UNI 4th & 4 at ISU 33, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:57UNI 4th & 8 at ISU 26, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:30UNI 4th & 10 at ISU 10, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:21ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNI made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:45ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:21ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:48ISU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:08ISU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:30UNI Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNIDrive 1INT TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:1523% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
77.4%
(15:00) DAY, Theo pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for MORANCY, Sergio thrown to the ISU43, clock 14:55. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on FREYLER, Beau enforced 15 yards to the UNI40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
77.4%
Aidan Dunne pass complete to Tyjahree Edwards for 9 yds to the UNI 49Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
77.2%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 4 yds to the ISU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
77.0%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 3 yds to the ISU 44Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-58
77.3%
Jeremiah Cooper 58 Yd Interception Return (Chase Contreraz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2823% → 23%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.5%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.5%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 9 yds to the UNI 34Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
77.4%
Tyjahree Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNI 33Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
77.5%
Noah Pettinger punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 3:0678% → 78%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
77.5%
Iowa State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ISU 19Similar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
77.5%
(10:41) BECHT, Rocco pass short to the left complete for 10 yards to KLOTZ, Stevo caught at the ISU21 and advanced to the ISU29 (STALEY, Dalesean), clock 10:36. PENALTY ISU Holding on SIMMONS, Darrell enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the ISU19 to the ISU10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+5
77.5%
Cartevious Norton run for 5 yds to the ISU 15Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+4
77.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 4 yds to the ISU 19Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+9
77.1%
Rocco Becht run for 9 yds to the ISU 28Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
77.8%
Tyler Perkins punt for 70 yds, downed at the UNI 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:3322% → 22%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
77.6%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 3 yds to the UNI 5Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
77.9%
Northern Iowa Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the UNI 3Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+2
78.0%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 2 yds to the UNI 5Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+1
77.8%
Theo Day run for 1 yd to the UNI 6Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
78.2%
Noah Pettinger punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:4779% → 81%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
78.7%
Cartevious Norton run for 4 yds to the UNI 17Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
78.8%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the UNI 15Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+9
78.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Easton Dean for 9 yds to the UNI 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
78.5%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the UNI 3Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
78.5%
Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the UNI 1Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.1%
Eli Sanders run for no gain to the UNI 1Similar
Q1 1:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.3%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0720% → 19%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
80.3%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 9 yds to the UNI 39Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+8
80.1%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 8 yds to the UNI 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
80.1%
Theo Day pass complete to Desmond Hutson for 4 yds to the ISU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-4
80.0%
Harrison Bey-Buie run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNI 47Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
80.3%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
80.8%
Noah Pettinger punt for 42 yds, downed at the ISU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5884% → 84%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
84.0%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the ISU 11Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
84.2%
Cartevious Norton run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 10Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+9
84.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Easton Dean for 9 yds to the ISU 19Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
84.2%
Tyler Perkins punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2118% → 18%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
81.6%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
81.7%
Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 7 yds to the UNI 29Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-8
81.7%
Theo Day sacked by Caleb Bacon for a loss of 8 yards to the UNI 21Similar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
82.4%
Noah Pettinger punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4588% → 86%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
87.6%
Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the ISU 49Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-1
87.6%
J.J. Kohl pass complete to Jaylin Noel for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 48Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+5
87.4%
J.J. Kohl run for 5 yds to the UNI 47Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
86.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2716% → 15%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.9%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 3 yds to the UNI 23Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
84.0%
Tyjahree Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNI 22Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
84.5%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
84.8%
Noah Pettinger punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4988% → 88%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
87.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Tyler Moore for 5 yds to the ISU 40Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
88.5%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
88.2%
Tyler Perkins punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2314% → 13%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
85.9%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 11 yds to the UNI 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
85.9%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 5 yds to the UNI 36Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
85.8%
Harrison Bey-Buie run for 4 yds to the UNI 40Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-1
85.7%
Harrison Bey-Buie run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNI 39Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
86.8%
Noah Pettinger punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:5189% → 96%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
89.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Easton Dean for 3 yds to the ISU 32Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
89.3%
Abu Sama III run for 8 yds to the ISU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
90.2%
Abu Sama III run for 26 yds to the UNI 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
90.1%
(01:44) SAMA, Abu rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the UNI27 (BOYD, Khristian;GOVERNOR, Woo), clock 01:38. PENALTY ISU Holding on HUFFORD, Jarrod enforced 10 yards from the UNI34 to the UNI44 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+15
90.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Aidan Bitter for 15 yds to the UNI 29Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+15
90.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 15 yds to the UNI 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
95.6%
Tyler Moore 14 Yd pass from Rocco Becht ( PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 14INT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:276% → 5%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
94.5%
Theo Day sacked by Will McLaughlin for a loss of 1 yard to the UNI 28Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+19
94.7%
Theo Day pass complete to Logan Wolf for 19 yds to the UNI 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
94.2%
Northern Iowa Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNI 42Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
94.6%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
94.7%
Theo Day pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15FG
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+56
96.2%
Chase Contreraz 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:4794% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
94.4%
Northern Iowa Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Woo Governor) to the ISU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
94.7%
(14:36) BECHT, Rocco pass deep to the left incomplete intended for NOEL, Jaylin thrown to the UNI30, clock 14:32. PENALTY UNI Roughing the Passer on CROOK-JONES, Cartez enforced 15 yards from the ISU31 to the ISU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
94.9%
Iowa State Penalty, False Start (Dimitri Stanley) to the ISU 41Similar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+6
94.7%
Eli Sanders run for 6 yds to the ISU 47Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+17
95.0%
Cartevious Norton run for 17 yds to the UNI 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
98.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 36 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 17FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:041% → 1%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.8%
Theo Day pass complete to Layne Pryor for 2 yds to the UNI 27Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
98.8%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 6 yds to the UNI 33Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
98.9%
Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 6 yds to the UNI 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
99.0%
Harrison Bey-Buie run for 15 yds to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.0%
Harrison Bey-Buie run for 4 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+18
99.0%
Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 18 yds to the ISU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
98.9%
Harrison Bey-Buie run for 4 yds to the ISU 20Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+6
99.0%
Harrison Bey-Buie run for 6 yds to the ISU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.1%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
99.0%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
99.2%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
98.8%
Matthew Cook 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:3299% → 100%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.1%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
99.1%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 34Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+9
99.4%
J.J. Kohl run for 9 yds to the ISU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.4%
J.J. Kohl pass complete to Jaylin Noel for no gain to the ISU 43Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
99.5%
J.J. Kohl pass complete to Abu Sama III for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 42Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+8
99.5%
J.J. Kohl run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 3
50
0
99.5%
Tyler Perkins punt for 38 yds, downed at the UNI 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:250% → 0%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
99.6%
Harrison Bey-Buie run for 1 yd to the UNI 13Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+2
99.6%
Theo Day pass complete to Naran Buntin for 2 yds to the UNI 15Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+10
99.7%
Theo Day run for 10 yds to the UNI 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Josh Jenkins run for 5 yds to the UNI 30Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
99.7%
(01:30) DAY, Theo pass short to the right incomplete intended for MCCULLOUGH, Brady broken up by HOWARD, Trevon at the UNI35; QB hurried by ELLIS, Jacob, clock 01:27. PENALTY ISU Roughing the Passer on ELLIS, Jacob enforced 15 yards from the UNI30 to the UNI45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.7%
Theo Day pass complete to Layne Pryor for 15 yds to the ISU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Tyjahree Edwards run for no gain to the ISU 40Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-10
99.7%
Theo Day sacked by Myles Purchase for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
50
0
99.8%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 20
50
0
99.8%
Noah Pettinger punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.7%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ISU 14Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
99.7%
J.J. Kohl pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 5 yds to the ISU 19Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
99.7%
J.J. Kohl pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
99.7%
Tyler Perkins punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 21TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:550% → 2%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+36
99.8%
Theo Day pass complete to Jaiden Ellis-Lahey for 36 yds to the ISU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
99.8%
Theo Day pass complete to Layne Pryor for 11 yds to the ISU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
99.8%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 7 yds to the ISU 3Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.8%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.4%
Desmond Hutson 3 Yd pass from Theo Day (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
99.7%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the ISU 10Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+3
99.7%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the ISU 13Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
99.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 4
OWN 13
-5
99.7%
Iowa State Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the ISU 8Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 9
OWN 8
0
99.7%
Tyler Perkins punt for 46 yds, downed at the UNI 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 23DOWNS
17 plays · 59 yds · 6:231% → 1%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
98.9%
Theo Day run for 10 yds to the UNI 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
98.9%
Tyjahree Edwards run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 6
50
+11
99.0%
Theo Day pass complete to Alex Allen for 11 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.0%
Theo Day pass complete to Tyjahree Edwards for 6 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
98.8%
Harrison Bey-Buie run for no gain to the ISU 33Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
99.0%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+5
99.1%
Theo Day pass complete to Logan Wolf for 5 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.1%
Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 3 yds to the ISU 25Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
99.2%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-1
99.3%
Theo Day sacked by Trent Jones II for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 26Similar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+16
99.3%
Theo Day pass complete to Logan Wolf for 16 yds to the ISU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.4%
Harrison Bey-Buie run for no gain to the ISU 10Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.4%
Theo Day run for 5 yds to the ISU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
99.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 5 yds to the ISU 10Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+3
99.9%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the ISU 13Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the ISU 13Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-6
99.6%
Theo Day sacked by Caleb Bacon for a loss of 6 yards to the UNI 21Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 16
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Harrison Bey-Buie run for no gain to the UNI 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:48
Tyler Moore 14 Yd pass from Rocco Becht ( PAT failed)
+5.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 10:27
Timeout Iowa State, clock 10:27
+5.2
TD · Q3 13:08
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 36 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com