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UTSA

UTSA 14 at Houston 17

HOU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:54 · Jack Martin 51 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Home team on offense+1.4Pregame prior−4.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:49: Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the UTSA 31 — HOU win probability +9.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:54: Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 6 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +13.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:42: Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 20 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — UTSA win probability +18.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:35: Tony Mathis Jr. run for 5 yds to the HOU 15 — HOU win probability +11.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:45: Timeout Houston, clock 02:45 — HOU win probability +12.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:32HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:43UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:19HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:16UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:35HOU 4th & 1 at UTSA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−0.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:09UTSA 4th & 15 at UTSA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:54HOU 4th & 5 at UTSA 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:54UTSA 4th & 11 at HOU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:59HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:26UTSA 4th & 8 at HOU 36, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:37HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:23HOU 4th & 2 at UTSA 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−1.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:53UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.4%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:49UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:56HOU 4th & 13 at UTSA 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:56UTSA 4th & 10 at HOU 46, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−1.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    14.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:54HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:26UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:54HOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:42UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2844% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
44.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 6 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
44.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-3
44.2%
Donovan Smith sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 26Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
44.5%
Laine Wilkins punt for 54 yds, downed at the UTSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4956% → 55%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
44.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 19Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
44.6%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
44.6%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
45.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2445% → 45%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
45.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
44.9%
Donovan Smith run for 6 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
45.0%
Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the HOU 47Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
45.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 3:0355% → 54%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
45.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the UTSA 16Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
45.2%
Frank Harris run for 5 yds to the UTSA 21Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+5
45.3%
Frank Harris run for 5 yds to the UTSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
45.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
45.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-6
45.2%
Frank Harris sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 6 yards to the UTSA 24Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
46.3%
Lucas Dean punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 1:2247% → 50%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
46.8%
Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the UTSA 21Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+13
46.8%
Donovan Smith run for 13 yds to the UTSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
50.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2351% → 55%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
49.4%
HARRIS, Frank pass deep to the left complete for 13 yards to OGLE-KELLOGG, Tykee caught at the TSA37 and advanced to the TSA33 (BROOKS, Antonio). PENALTY TSA Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HAYNES, Terrell enforced 5 yards from the TSA20 to the TSA15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+4
49.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 4 yds to the UTSA 19Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+11
49.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the UTSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
49.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 13 yds to the UTSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
49.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 16 yds to the HOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
48.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 17 yds to the HOU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
48.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+20
48.2%
David Amador Ii run for 20 yds to the HOU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
45.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:5147% → 49%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
47.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 47 yds to the UTSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
48.7%
Houston Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UTSA 33Similar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
48.4%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+1
48.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the UTSA 32Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+13
47.5%
Donovan Smith run for 13 yds to the UTSA 19Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
48.7%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for no gain to the UTSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:5653% → 51%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
47.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 5 yds to the UTSA 24Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+15
47.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 15 yds to the UTSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
46.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Robert Henry for 2 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
46.4%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-10
46.9%
HARRIS, Frank pass to the right complete for 16 yards to CEPHUS, Joshua caught at the HOU45 and advanced to the HOU43 (FLEMING, Malik). PENALTY TSA Holding on TATAFU, Venly enforced 10 yards from the TSA41 to the TSA31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+3
48.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UTSA 34Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 15
OWN 34
0
48.9%
Lucas Dean punt for 26 yds, downed at the HOU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:1551% → 51%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
50.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 21 yds to the UTSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
51.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 5 yds to the UTSA 34Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
51.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
51.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+51
50.5%
Jack Martin 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:0052% → 52%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.8%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
48.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UTSA 37Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+13
48.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
50
0
46.2%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
50
+13
46.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for 13 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
46.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+10
45.7%
Frank Harris run for 10 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
45.6%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the HOU 25Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
45.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the HOU 24Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-2
46.4%
Frank Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 26Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
47.6%
Tate Sandell 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:5551% → 51%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
51.2%
Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+13
51.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 13 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
52.7%
Joseph Manjack IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 42Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
51.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+12
50.9%
Donovan Smith run for 12 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
53.4%
Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the UTSA 46Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
53.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-5
51.8%
Donovan Smith sacked by Nnanna Anyanwu and Nick Booker-Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 49Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
50.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:3352% → 53%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
48.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 7 yds to the UTSA 27Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
47.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 7 yds to the UTSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+28
47.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 28 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
45.5%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
45.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the HOU 38Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+2
45.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the HOU 36Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
47.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the HOU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 1:2652% → 60%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
52.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 8 yds to the HOU 20Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+5
52.7%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
52.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 10 yds to the HOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
52.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
54.8%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 41Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+13
53.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 13 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
55.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 1 yd to the UTSA 45Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+1
54.7%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the UTSA 44Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+19
53.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 19 yds to the UTSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
56.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Brandon Campbell for 3 yds to the UTSA 22Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-6
56.0%
Donovan Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the UTSA 28 for a 1ST down UTSA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Donyai Taylor) to the UTSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+31
60.3%
Jack Martin 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14INT
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:2245% → 47%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
55.3%
UTSA Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ALMARAZ, Ernesto enforced (-5 Yards) to the UTSA 11Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+24
55.5%
Frank Harris run for 24 yds to the UTSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.6%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+44
55.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 44 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
50.7%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the HOU 18Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-5
50.7%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (Terrell Haynes) to the HOU 23Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+1
51.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the HOU 22Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
53.2%
Frank Harris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5457% → 57%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
57.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Samuel Brown for 9 yds to the HOU 26Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+12
58.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 12 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
58.4%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the HOU 39Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
57.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
57.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, downed at the UTSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
57.3%
Frank Harris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:0862% → 61%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
50
+17
62.1%
Stacy Sneed run for 17 yds to the UTSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
63.3%
Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
63.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 5 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
61.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 2
OPP 25
-10
61.0%
Donovan Smith sacked by Donyai Taylor for a loss of 10 yards to the UTSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3443% → 45%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
57.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the UTSA 39Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
55.2%
Frank Harris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:5565% → 79%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
64.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the UTSA 31Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-1
64.7%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 32Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+5
63.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 5 yds to the UTSA 27Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+5
61.6%
MARTIN, Jack field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at TSA35], score nullified by penalty, clock 04:50. PENALTY Before the snap, TSA Illegal Formation on MATTERSON, Brandon enforced 5 yards from the TSA27 to the TSA22 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
65.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+16
65.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 16 yds to the UTSA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
65.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
79.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 6 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:0423% → 19%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
77.2%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UTSA 7Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+14
77.6%
Robert Henry run for 14 yds to the UTSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
76.7%
Robert Henry run for 6 yds to the UTSA 27Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-5
75.6%
Frank Harris run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTSA 22Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+7
78.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+11
77.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 11 yds to the UTSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
74.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 4 yds to the UTSA 44Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-1
78.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
79.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
81.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:5381% → 83%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
81.1%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 21Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
80.8%
SMITH, Donovan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for COBBS, Joshua thrown to the TSA45. PENALTY TSA Pass Interference on FORTUNE, Nicktroy enforced 15 yards to the HOU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
82.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+21
82.9%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 21 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
83.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 31 yds to the UTSA 6 Houston Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UTSA 40Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 13
OPP 40
0
83.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+3
82.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson Jr. for 3 yds to the UTSA 37Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-3
82.3%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTSA 40Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
82.8%
Laine Wilkins punt for 34 yds, downed at the UTSA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22TD
16 plays · 94 yds · 5:1416% → 40%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
84.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 4 yds to the UTSA 10Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+6
84.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the UTSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
83.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the UTSA 21Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
83.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the UTSA 24Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+20
83.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Houston Thomas for 20 yds to the UTSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
80.6%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
81.2%
Devin Mccuin run for 10 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
79.4%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the HOU 46Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
79.8%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
81.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 10
OPP 46
+11
83.1%
Frank Harris run for 11 yds to the HOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
77.8%
UTSA Penalty, False Start (Venly Tatafu) to the HOU 40Similar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+20
80.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 20 yds to the HOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
77.2%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
77.8%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
59.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 20 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23END OF GAME
14 plays · 33 yds · 5:3572% → 95%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
71.6%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 5 yds to the HOU 15Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+10
71.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 10 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.1%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 6 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
85.4%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the HOU 32Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
84.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 6 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
88.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 3 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
88.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+3
88.0%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
89.9%
Kneel down by SMITH, Donovan at HOU47 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
89.1%
Kneel down by SMITH, Donovan at HOU45 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 45
0
95.4%
Kneel down by SMITH, Donovan at HOU43 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:42
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 20 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
-18
TD · Q3 3:54
Donovan Smith pass complete to Matthew Golden for 6 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
+13.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:45
Timeout Houston, clock 02:45
+12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com