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TXST

Texas State 42 at Baylor 31

BAY
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:25 · Blake Shapen pass complete to Jonah Burton for 15 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Pregame prior+7.6Home team on offense−27.6Score differential−10.3Garbage-time factor−11.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:48: Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +12.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:21: Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 53 yds for a TD (Blake Shapen pass to Ketron Jackson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — BAY win probability +10.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:18: TJ Finley run for 16 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +13.4 pts (now 48%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:52: TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 26 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +22.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:52: Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +17.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:17TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17BAY 4th & 6 at TXST 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:32BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:26BAY 4th & 19 at TXST 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:59BAY 4th & 19 at BAY 16, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:59TXST 4th & 5 at BAY 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−0.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:11TXST 4th & 4 at BAY 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:59TXST 4th & 2 at BAY 36, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:18TXST 4th & 3 at BAY 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−8.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:56BAY 4th & 1 at TXST 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−3.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:56BAY 4th & 11 at TXST 36, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:47BAY 4th & 7 at TXST 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−8.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:54BAY 4th & 8 at TXST 44, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−1.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    10.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:28TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−4.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:25BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 28, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:49TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 28, up 11
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:33TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:21TXST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:11TXST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:06BAY Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:48TXST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:21BAY Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:18TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:52TXST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:52BAY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:324% → 5%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
95.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 3 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
95.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
95.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:17
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
95.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:5096% → 95%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
95.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 40 yds to the TXST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
95.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TXST 24Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+8
95.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 8 yds to the TXST 16Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+15
95.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 15 yds to the TXST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
95.1%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (Drake Dabney) to the TXST 6Similar
Q1 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
95.0%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 7Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
94.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jake Roberts for 1 yd to the TXST 6Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
94.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
94.8%
Isaiah Hankins 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:395% → 7%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.7%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
94.7%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
94.6%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
94.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+21
94.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 21 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
94.1%
Baylor Penalty, Illegal Substitution (5 Yards) to the BAY 33Similar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+21
94.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Konner Fox for 21 yds to the BAY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
94.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the BAY 10Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
93.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 10 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5594% → 93%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
93.6%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BAY 24Similar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+1
93.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the BAY 25Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+8
93.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Yates for 8 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
93.2%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the BAY 33Similar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
92.8%
Palmer Williams punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:157% → 7%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
92.9%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 36Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-1
92.9%
TJ Finley sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6FG
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:2793% → 92%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
93.2%
Blake Shapen sacked by Sam Latham for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 37Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+11
92.9%
(04:24) SHAPEN, Blake pass to the right incomplete intended for JACKSON JR., Ketron thrown to the TXS25, clock 04:20. PENALTY TXS Pass Interference on EATON, Joshua enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the TXS26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
93.0%
Hal Presley run for 3 yds to the TXST 23Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-5
92.9%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TXST 28Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-2
92.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 30Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 14
OPP 30
-5
92.1%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 19
OPP 35
0
92.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 19
OPP 35
+53
92.0%
Isaiah Hankins 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:568% → 10%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
92.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
91.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+65
89.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 65 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:1590% → 89%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the BAY 25Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-9
89.1%
Blake Shapen sacked by Caleb Coleman for a loss of 9 yards to the BAY 16Similar
Q2 14:59
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
88.6%
Palmer Williams punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:3112% → 21%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
88.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 41Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-5
88.4%
Texas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TXST 36Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 14
OWN 36
-1
88.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Drew Donley for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 35Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+16
88.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 16 yds to the BAY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
87.1%
Donerio Davenport run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 11
50
+6
86.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
86.3%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+6
86.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
85.8%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the BAY 36Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+6
85.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-2
85.1%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 32Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+5
85.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
83.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
78.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 27 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 4:5580% → 81%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
80.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
79.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the BAY 36Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+32
78.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 32 yds to the TXST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
79.1%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 35Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+6
77.9%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+8
76.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 8 yds to the TXST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
76.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 13 yds to the TXST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
74.9%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TXST 9Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
81.1%
Blake Shapen run for 9 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:1422% → 42%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TXST 25Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Calvin Hill for 7 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
76.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 11 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
75.1%
Calvin Hill run for 13 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
73.9%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
73.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the BAY 36Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
73.4%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+6
74.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 6 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
72.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 32Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+31
71.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 31 yds to the BAY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.3%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the BAY 1Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:4766% → 70%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 7 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
65.6%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BAY 27Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
66.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 9 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
67.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 9 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
62.9%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+15
64.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 15 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+57
69.5%
Isaiah Hankins 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:3265% → 75%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
65.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 9 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
65.1%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the BAY 47Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+53
75.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 53 yds for a TD (Blake Shapen pass to Ketron Jackson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0229% → 48%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.3%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
70.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 10 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
68.8%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+31
68.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 31 yds to the BAY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
66.2%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the BAY 18Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
65.5%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the BAY 16Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
65.8%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the BAY 16Similar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+16
52.3%
TJ Finley run for 16 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:0953% → 49%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
53.2%
Richard Reese run for 12 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+27
52.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jonah Burton for 27 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
54.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 9 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
54.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-5
53.8%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (Gavin Byers) to the TXST 36Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-5
51.7%
SHAPEN, Blake pass short to the right complete for 7 yards to JACKSON JR., Ketron caught at the TXS31 and advanced to the TXS29 (MILLS, Chris), clock 08:28. PENALTY BAY Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SIERACKI, Kaden enforced 5 yards from the TXS36 to the TXS41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+10
49.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jonah Burton for 10 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
49.0%
Gavin Yates run for no gain to the TXST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0961% → 68%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
39.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 3 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
38.2%
TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the TXST 37Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+13
37.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
50
0
32.4%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
50
-5
32.0%
Donerio Davenport run for a loss of 5 yards to the TXST 45 Donerio Davenport fumbled, recovered by BAY Bryson JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 1:5941% → 42%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
41.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 10 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
41.2%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TXST 35Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-2
40.9%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 37Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+1
37.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 1 yd to the TXST 36Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+33
36.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 33 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
40.0%
Sawyer Robertson run for a loss of 7 yards to the TXST 10Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
38.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TXST 7Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
34.6%
Drake Dabney pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
42.4%
Isaiah Hankins 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5258% → 91%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Calvin Hill for 6 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+29
39.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 29 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
33.3%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+11
32.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 11 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
31.7%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the BAY 26Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+26
9.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 26 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 4:4614% → 27%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+32
14.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 32 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
15.0%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the TXST 45Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+1
13.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TXST 44Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
12.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 8
OPP 44
+22
11.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 22 yds to the TXST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
12.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TXST 20Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
11.4%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+9
10.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 9 yds to the TXST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
10.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 9 yds to the TXST 2Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 1
OPP 2
-5
10.4%
(09:57) RICHARDSON, Dominic rush up the middle for no gain to the TXS2 (BELL, Ben), clock 09:55. PENALTY Before the snap, BAY Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the TXS2 to the TXS7. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
10.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
9.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TXST 2Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2082% → 84%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.6%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TXST 25Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.4%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
16.4%
TJ Finley run for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 21 TJ Finley fumbled, recovered by TXST TJ FinleySimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
16.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21INT
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:1918% → 16%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
17.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-3
17.0%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 28Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 13
OWN 28
0
12.9%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+15
11.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jonah Burton for 15 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
14.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Jonah Burton for 19 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
15.5%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Tavian Coleman for a loss of 10 yards to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 20
OPP 48
0
12.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 20
OPP 48
+31
11.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 31 yds to the TXST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
16.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
16.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+12
13.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 12 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
15.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:0391% → 96%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
9.1%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
8.6%
TJ Finley run for 5 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
8.1%
TJ Finley run for 1 yd to the TXST 28Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
4.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:255% → 5%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
4.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Jonah Burton for 17 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
4.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
4.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+46
4.5%
Sawyer Robertson run for 31 yds to the BAY 15 Sawyer Robertson fumbled, recovered by TXST Kaleb Culp for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Joshua Eaton) to the BAY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -10 yds · 1:3497% → 97%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
3.1%
(01:58) [SG] Kneel down by TXS at TXS9 (team loss of 3), clock 01:48.Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 13
OWN 9
0
2.9%
(00:54) [NHSG] Kneel down by TXS at TXS6 (team loss of 3), clock 00:49.Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 16
OWN 6
0
2.9%
(00:24) [NHSG] Kneel down by TXS at TXS2 (team loss of 4), clock 00:19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:52
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 26 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-22.2
TD · Q4 8:52
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+17
TD · Q3 10:18
TJ Finley run for 16 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com