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PITT

Pittsburgh 19 at Duke 30

DUKE
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+2DUKE 96.8%Todd Pelino 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 19 - HOME 30 · Q4 1:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:59 · Todd Pelino 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Pregame prior+0.7Home team on offense+26.8Garbage-time factor+15.1Score differential+6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:13: Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 21 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +7.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:07: Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +13.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:44: Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 15 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +20.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:54: Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +7.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:17: Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — PITT win probability +8.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:29PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:08DUKE 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:48DUKE 4th & 4 at PITT 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.6%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:41PITT 4th & 7 at DUKE 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:56DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:53DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:40PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 10, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:28PITT 4th & 19 at PITT 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−6.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:28DUKE 4th & 8 at PITT 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−9.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:02PITT 4th & 4 at DUKE 29, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%−0.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:49PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:47DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:59DUKE 4th & 1 at PITT 30, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:42PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 9:13PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:07DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:44DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:54DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:17PITT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2729% → 29%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
71.1%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
71.1%
Nate Yarnell run for 6 yds to the PITT 22Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+3
71.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
70.9%
Caleb Junko punt for 34 yds, downed at the DUKE 41Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
70.9%
(13:29) JUNKO, Caleb punt 11 yards to the PIT36, CALHOUN, Jalon returned -3 yards to the PIT39 (CARTER, Daniel), clock 13:20. PENALTY DU Holding on MERGOTT, Luke declined DU Holding on ROBINSON, Kimari PIT Targeting on CARTER, Daniel , Offsetting penalties [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:2671% → 71%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
71.0%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
71.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 1
50
0
70.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 1
50
+15
70.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 15 yds to the PITT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
71.0%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
71.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the PITT 33Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-10
70.8%
(09:40) LOFTIS, Grayson pass to the right incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan broken up by DEVONSHIRE, M.J. at the PIT25. PENALTY DU Holding on BARTON, Graham enforced 10 yards from the PIT33 to the PIT43 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+14
70.3%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 14 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+47
70.8%
Todd Pelino 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 6:0229% → 32%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
70.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+15
70.7%
Konata Mumpfield run for 15 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
70.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 42Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
70.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+6
70.1%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 6 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
69.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
69.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-1
69.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 35Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+15
69.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 15 yds to the DUKE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
69.0%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the DUKE 19Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
68.9%
Nate Yarnell run for 2 yds to the DUKE 17Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
69.1%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
68.3%
Ben Sauls 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4569% → 68%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.9%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
68.3%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
68.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 59 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for no gain to the PITT 14. PENALTY PIT Holding on Ryland Gandy enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards after the change of possession from the end of the play at the PIT14 to the PIT7, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
15 plays · 93 yds · 7:3132% → 44%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
68.3%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 9 yds to the PITT 16Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+3
67.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
67.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+15
67.8%
Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (DeWayne Carter) to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
67.1%
Nate Yarnell run for 2 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
66.6%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 7 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
66.1%
Nate Yarnell run for 1 yd to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
65.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
65.2%
Nate Yarnell run for 1 yd to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+15
65.5%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 15 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
64.6%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 2 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-2
64.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 32Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+11
65.1%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to C'Bo Flemister for 11 yds to the DUKE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
63.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for no gain to the DUKE 21Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
56.1%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 21 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2059% → 57%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
58.8%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
58.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
57.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the DUKE 46Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-1
58.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 45Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
57.7%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
56.5%
Porter Wilson punt for 51 yds, downed at the PITT 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0444% → 44%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
55.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the PITT 8Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 8
-2
55.6%
Nate Yarnell run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 6Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+4
55.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 4 yds to the PITT 10Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
55.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 15 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:2859% → 68%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
58.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the PITT 22Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+6
58.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the PITT 16Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
56.8%
Grayson Loftis run for 2 yds to the PITT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
57.4%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 15Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+5
57.1%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the PITT 10Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
67.9%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:3638% → 36%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
62.1%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 3 yds to the PITT 15Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-14
62.1%
Nate Yarnell sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 14 yards to the PITT 1Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 21
OWN 1
+2
63.6%
Nate Yarnell run for 2 yds to the PITT 3Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 19
OWN 3
0
64.2%
Caleb Junko punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1167% → 64%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
66.5%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
66.2%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-28
64.3%
Grayson Loftis pass intercepted M.J. Devonshire return for 28 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 4:3266% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.5%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.3%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 26Similar
Q3 14:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+31
63.9%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 31 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
68.4%
Duke Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PITT 48Similar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
66.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+6
66.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 6 yds to the PITT 42Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+15
66.9%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Personal Foul (Samuel Okunlola) to the PITT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
68.7%
(12:15) LOFTIS, Grayson pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HAGANS, Sahmir broken up by MCMILLON, Donovan at the PIT4. PENALTY Before the snap, DU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the PIT23 to the PIT28. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+4
68.0%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the PITT 24Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
68.5%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
66.9%
(11:24) LOFTIS, Grayson pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CALHOUN, Jalon thrown to the PIT0. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on WOODS, A.J. enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the PIT9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
68.6%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
68.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the PITT 8Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
67.3%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
69.8%
Todd Pelino 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:2632% → 41%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
68.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 24Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+16
68.5%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 16 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
66.0%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Nate Yarnell) to the PITT 32Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 18
OWN 32
+22
68.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 22 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
64.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 49Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+14
66.1%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 14 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
63.0%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
63.1%
Nate Yarnell run for 6 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
63.9%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+47
59.1%
Ben Sauls 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1863% → 83%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
63.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
65.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the DUKE 34Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
63.8%
Grayson Loftis run for 2 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
63.8%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
63.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 3 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+46
62.6%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Waters for 46 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
82.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 15 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5923% → 17%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-12
77.1%
Nate Yarnell sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the PITT 2Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 22
OWN 2
+3
77.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 5Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 19
OWN 5
+14
79.0%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Israel Polk for 14 yds to the PITT 19Similar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
79.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 48 ydsSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
83.3%
Duke Penalty, False Start (Jacob Monk) to the DUKE 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:4682% → 95%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
81.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+6
81.8%
(01:36) LOFTIS, Grayson pass to the right incomplete intended for HAGANS, Sahmir thrown to the DU42. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Marquis enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the DU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
83.4%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 41Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+32
84.5%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 32 yds to the PITT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
86.9%
Jordan Waters run for 11 yds to the PITT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
87.1%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 16 yds Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jalon Calhoun) to the PITT 22Similar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 16
OPP 22
0
87.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the PITT 22Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 16
OPP 22
0
87.1%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 16
OPP 22
+16
85.8%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 16 yds to the PITT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
87.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the PITT 3Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.0%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16INT
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:308% → 8%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 6 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
91.1%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 8 yds to the PITT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
91.2%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+29
91.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 29 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
90.9%
Nate Yarnell run for 2 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
90.6%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 3 yds to the DUKE 27. PENALTY DU Roughing the Passer on Aeneas Peebles enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the end of the play at the DU27 to the DU14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. Similar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
89.7%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
90.7%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Bub Means) to the DUKE 18Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 15
OPP 18
-15
91.2%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Personal Foul (C'Bo Flemister) to the DUKE 27Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 24
OPP 27
+9
91.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 9 yds to the DUKE 18Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 15
OPP 18
0
92.3%
Nate Yarnell pass intercepted, touchback. Jeremiah Lewis return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3296% → 96%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
95.6%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the DUKE 21Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
95.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the DUKE 24Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
96.0%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
95.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:237% → 16%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
93.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
50
+2
93.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 2 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+19
93.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 19 yds to the DUKE 29 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Nick Morris Jr.) to the DUKE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
92.7%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
83.7%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:1894% → 97%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+37
93.8%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 22 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST down Pittsburgh Penalty, Roughing the Passer on OKUNLOLA, Samuel enforced (Samuel Okunlola) to the PITT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
95.1%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the PITT 37Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+5
95.2%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the PITT 32Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
96.3%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+48
96.8%
Todd Pelino 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:174% → 4%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 5 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
95.2%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.6%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-3
96.3%
Nate Yarnell sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:2497% → 98%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
97.2%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the PITT 23Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+8
97.6%
Jaylen Coleman run for 8 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
97.7%
(00:58) [NH] Kneel down by DU at PIT17 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
97.7%
(00:55) Kneel down by DU at PIT19 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 14
OPP 19
0
97.6%
(00:13) Kneel down by DU at PIT21 (team loss of 2).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:44
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 15 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+20.1
TD · Q2 1:07
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+13.7
TD · Q4 5:17
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com