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LOU

Louisville 38 at Miami 31

MIA
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:36 · Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+7.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score differential−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:08: Jack Plummer pass complete to Trevonte Sylvester for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead PAT BLOCKED) — LOU win probability +10.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:48: Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +14.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:02: Evan Conley run for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Plummer pass to Jamari Thrash for Two-Point Conversion) — LOU win probability +26.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:34: Andres Borregales 51 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +10.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: 4th down).
  5. TD · Q4 4:17: Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 58 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK) — LOU win probability +35.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:00MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34LOU 4th & 2 at MIA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.9%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:36MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:32LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:25MIA 4th & 1 at LOU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−1.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:42LOU 4th & 7 at MIA 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:26MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 29, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:28LOU 4th & 2 at MIA 22, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%−1.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−8.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:04MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 49, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:10LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−3.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:53LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 24, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−3.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:00MIA 4th & 17 at MIA 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−4.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:34MIA 4th & 15 at LOU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−6.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−7.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:30MIA 4th & 3 at LOU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−15.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−18.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:29LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.7
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:02LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:06MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:17MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:18LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:42MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:08LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:48MIA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:02LOU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    54.6%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:17LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5160% → 60%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
59.8%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 7 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 3
OWN 30
0
59.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 30Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
59.8%
run for no gain to the MIA 30Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
59.7%
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:4940% → 44%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
59.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
59.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 8 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
59.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 18 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
59.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 7 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+1
59.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the MIA 32Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
59.3%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+23
59.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 23 yds to the MIA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
58.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the MIA 2Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5557% → 61%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 25Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
56.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 11 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+43
56.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 43 yds to the LOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
60.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:1340% → 40%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
59.6%
(06:06) PLUMMER, Jack pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to THRASH, Jamari caught at the LOU30 and advanced to the LOU30, out of bounds, clock 05:58. PENALTY LOU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HUDSON, Bryan enforced 5 yards from the LOU25 to the LOU20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
59.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for no gain to the LOU 20Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
59.7%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted Kamren Kinchens return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:3161% → 65%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
50
+30
60.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 30 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
61.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the LOU 15Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
61.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+15
64.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 15 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 2:4537% → 43%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
62.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 21 yds to the MIA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
61.9%
Jack Plummer run for 6 yds to the MIA 18Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+3
62.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the MIA 15Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
62.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the MIA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
56.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 12 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4160% → 59%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
59.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
59.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
58.6%
Dylan Joyce punt for 50 ydsSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
58.7%
PLUMMER, Jack pass to the right incomplete intended for THOMPSON, Jadon thrown to the LOU42. PENALTY MIA Offsides on FLAGG JR., Corey enforced 5 yards from the LOU27 to the LOU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0442% → 41%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 5
OWN 32
+3
57.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 35Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
58.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the LOU 35Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
58.3%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
59.2%
Brady Hodges punt for 47 yds, downed at the MIA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 5:3960% → 70%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
59.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds to the MIA 26Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+6
60.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 6 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
60.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 1 yd to the MIA 33Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
60.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 4 yds to the MIA 37Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+17
59.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 17 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
61.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 3 yds to the LOU 43Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
62.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
61.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+3
60.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
62.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
70.2%
Brashard Smith run for 34 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:5933% → 32%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.5%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 11 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
67.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 17 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
66.2%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the MIA 46Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+14
67.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 14 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
64.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+22
64.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 22 yds to the MIA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
66.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
67.9%
Brock Travelstead 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1570% → 68%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
69.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 5 yds to the MIA 25Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
70.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 3 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
69.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 29Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
68.4%
Dylan Joyce punt for 48 yds, downed at the LOU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 2:1130% → 43%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
70.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
70.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 4 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+4
70.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 4 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
69.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 15 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
67.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 7 yds to the MIA 42Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
66.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
67.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 4 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
66.6%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+12
68.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the MIA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
66.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the MIA 1Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Trevonte Sylvester for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
65.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:2639% → 49%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
61.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the LOU 33Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+10
61.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 10 yds to the LOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
59.6%
Jack Plummer run for 1 yd to the LOU 44Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+26
59.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for 26 yds to the MIA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
57.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 33Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+11
58.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 11 yds to the MIA 22Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
58.5%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
51.0%
Nick Lopez 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2354% → 55%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
54.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 24Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
53.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 3 yds to the MIA 27Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
51.7%
(10:11) VAN DYKE, Tyler sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the MIA17 (REIGER, Mason), clock 10:07. PENALTY LOU Face mask on REIGER, Mason enforced 15 yards from the MIA27 to the MIA42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
56.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 49Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
57.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
56.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
54.5%
Dylan Joyce punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4848% → 45%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
52.2%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the LOU 15Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-1
52.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 14Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+1
53.6%
Jack Plummer run for 1 yd to the LOU 15Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
54.7%
Brady Hodges punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:0356% → 74%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+54
56.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 54 yds to the LOU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the LOU 1Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5433% → 31%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
67.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 24Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
68.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
69.5%
Brady Hodges punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Brashard Smith at the MIA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:4570% → 69%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+25
69.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 25 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
73.3%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the LOU 45Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
73.2%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Mason Reiger for a loss of 10 yards to the MIA 45Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 20
OWN 45
+8
69.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 8 yds to the LOU 47Similar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 12
OPP 47
-5
68.5%
Miami Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MIA 48Similar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
68.5%
Dylan Joyce punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 4:4832% → 65%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
67.9%
Maurice Turner run for 9 yds to the LOU 20Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+5
66.8%
Maurice Turner run for 5 yds to the LOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.8%
Jack Plummer run for no gain to the LOU 25Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.1%
Jimmy Calloway run for 6 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
68.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Josh Lifson for 11 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
65.3%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the LOU 42Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+22
66.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 22 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
63.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+13
63.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 13 yds to the MIA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+18
60.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 18 yds to the MIA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
34.8%
Evan Conley run for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Plummer pass to Jamari Thrash for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 5:2745% → 55%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
44.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 8 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
45.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 18 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
48.3%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 11
50
0
45.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 11
50
+11
44.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 11 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
48.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 40Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+12
47.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 12 yds to the LOU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
48.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 29Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
48.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-4
44.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 33Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 15
OPP 33
+51
55.3%
Andres Borregales 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1648% → 87%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
51.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 13 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
48.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+58
13.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 58 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:3922% → 7%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+48
22.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 48 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
30.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 4 yds to the LOU 26Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
30.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+7
28.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 7 yds to the LOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
30.7%
(02:19) VAN DYKE, Tyler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GEORGE, Jacolby thrown to the LOU0, clock 02:15. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on EDWARDS, Derrick enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the LOU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
27.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the LOU 3Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
27.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
24.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
6.5%
Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jacolby George) to the LOU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:5994% → 94%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
6.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the LOU 21Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+2
6.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the LOU 23Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+3
6.1%
Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the LOU 26Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
5.6%
Brady Hodges punt for 34 yds, downed at the MIA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:159% → 11%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
8.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 10 yds to the MIA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
9.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
50
+45
10.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 45 yds to the LOU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:17
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 58 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)
-35.7
TD · Q4 11:02
Evan Conley run for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Plummer pass to Jamari Thrash for Two-Point Conversion)
-26
TD · Q3 5:48
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
+14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com