2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the SYR 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:41: Haynes King pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 53 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +8.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:43: Jamal Haynes run for 30 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +10.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:07: Dan Villari 4 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick) — SYR win probability +10.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:51: LeQuint Allen 1 Yd Run ( PAT failed) — SYR win probability +6.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:41: LeQuint Allen 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — SYR win probability +23.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SYR made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 9:31SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt31.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:10SYR 4th & 24 at GT 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snapGo for it28.4%−1.27% to convertField goalTheir call29.6%64% to makePunt27.3%−2.2average punt
- Q2 14:52GT 4th & 5 at GT 25, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it66.1%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.4%average punt
- Q2 12:37SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 39, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it32.3%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.5%average punt
- Q2 9:25SYR 4th & 3 at GT 32, down 4Close callKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snapGo for it34.1%53% to convertField goalTheir call33.3%−0.751% to makePunt32.8%−1.3average punt
- Q2 4:46SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 26, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snapGo for it21.5%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.8%average punt
- Q2 0:13GT 4th & 2 at SYR 5, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snapGo for it79.8%−0.251% to convertField goalTheir call80.0%92% to makePunt76.8%−3.2average punt
- Q3 8:01SYR 4th & 1 at GT 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.8%71% to convertField goal13.4%−2.451% to makePunt12.5%−3.3average punt
- Q3 1:14GT 4th & 11 at GT 37, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snapGo for it82.4%−2.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 35, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt15.6%−2.7average punt
- Q4 12:41SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 38, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snapGo for it13.5%−1.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.9%average punt
- Q4 10:40GT 4th & 5 at GT 26, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snapGo for it85.8%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:39GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.2%97% to makeGo for two68.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:41GT Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.0%97% to makeGo for two74.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:43GT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:07SYR Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.8%97% to makeGo for two13.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:51SYR Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call18.5%97% to makeGo for two18.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:41SYR Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick35.6%−0.797% to makeGo for twoTheir call36.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 5:2164% → 67%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+15
64.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 15 yds to the SYR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+9
64.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for 9 yds to the SYR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
64.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 6 yds to the SYR 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+8
64.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 8 yds to the GT 49Similar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
66.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 15 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2FG15 plays · 36 yds · 8:2134% → 35%
Q1 2:38
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-10
65.6%
LeQuint Allen run for 5 yds Syracuse Penalty, Offensive Holding (-15 Yards) to the GT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1365% → 64%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1536% → 34%
Q2 14:52
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+2
65.1%
Dan Villari pass complete to Donovan Brown for 2 yds to the SYR 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5INT3 plays · 8 yds · 1:2765% → 65%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
65.1%
HAYNES, Jamal rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the GT31 (DARTON, Kevon). PENALTY Before the snap, GT False Start on BLAYLOCK, Dominick enforced 5 yards from the end of the play at the GT31 to the GT26. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 12
OWN 26
-6
64.9%
Haynes King pass intercepted Isaiah Johnson return for 6 yds to the GT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6MISSED FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4537% → 36%
GTDrive 7TD6 plays · 68 yds · 1:4466% → 75%
Q2 9:25
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+5
65.0%
Syracuse Penalty, Offsides (Anwar Sparrow) to the GT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
66.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 1 yd to the GT 47Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+53
75.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 53 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:4626% → 23%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
73.8%
Dan Villari pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 5 yds to the SYR 14Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+7
73.7%
Dan Villari pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 7 yds to the SYR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-1
74.0%
Dan Villari pass complete to Braden Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the SYR 21Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+5
74.8%
Dan Villari pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 5 yds to the SYR 26Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
76.9%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the GT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9FG12 plays · 62 yds · 4:3376% → 82%
Q2 4:46
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+14
75.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+10
76.9%
Syracuse Penalty, Defensive Holding (Leon Lowery) to the SYR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
79.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 1 yd to the SYR 12Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+7
78.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 7 yds to the SYR 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0418% → 18%
GTDrive 11TD1 play · 30 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12TD9 plays · 71 yds · 4:369% → 19%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
91.4%
run for 6 yds to the SYR 35 Ike Daniels fumbled, recovered by SYR LeQuint Allen [NHSG] Direct snap to VILLARI, Dan rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards, VILLARI, Dan fumbled at SYR31 forced by MOALA, Paul, recovered by SYR ALLEN, LeQuint at the SYR35, returned 0 yards to the SYR35, End of Play.Similar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+15
91.1%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (LaMiles Brooks) to the GT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
91.2%
(12:51) DAVIS, Braden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ALLEN, LeQuint broken up by POWELL-LEE, Clayton at the GT0. PENALTY SYR Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BLEICH, Christopher enforced 5 yards from the GT31 to the GT36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
92.1%
Dan Villari pass complete to LeQuint Allen for no gain to the GT 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13FUMBLE1 play · 16 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
86.2%
Jamal Haynes run for 16 yds to the GT 41 Jamal Haynes fumbled, recovered by SYR Caleb Okechukwu [NHSG] HAYNES, Jamal rush up the middle for a gain of 16 yards, HAYNES, Jamal fumbled at GT39 forced by WAX, Marlowe, recovered by SYR OKECHUKWU, Caleb at the GT41, returned 0 yards to the GT41, End of Play, clock 09:59.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5817% → 16%
GTDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 39 yds · 2:0587% → 89%
SYRDrive 16TD5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5317% → 24%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
82.9%
Dan Villari pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 7 yds to the GT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 2:3183% → 83%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
83.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 6 yds to the GT 33Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-6
83.7%
Haynes King sacked by Caleb Okechukwu for a loss of 6 yards to the GT 37Similar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
83.1%
David Shanahan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Donovan Brown at the SYR 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 3:3318% → 15%
Q3 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+6
82.5%
Dan Villari pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 6 yds to the SYR 33Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
82.4%
Dan Villari pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 3 yds to the SYR 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-6
81.7%
Braden Davis pass complete to LeQuint Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the SYR 34Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
85.3%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the GT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0186% → 86%
SYRDrive 20TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:5916% → 42%
GTDrive 21TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1935% → 37%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.9%
KING, Haynes pass to the left incomplete intended for SINGLETON, JR., Eric thrown to the GT33. PENALTY SYR Pass Interference on CLARK, Alijah enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the GT31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
35.8%
KING, Haynes pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SINGLETON, JR., Eric thrown to the GT50. PENALTY SYR Offsides on LOWERY, Leon enforced 5 yards from the GT34 to the GT39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Luke MacPhail pass intercepted Kyle Efford return for no gain to the SYR 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER4 plays · 29 yds · 2:1883% → 96%
Q4 2:18
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+3
83.0%
Syracuse Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jason Simmons Jr.) to the SYR 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
90.3%
(01:17) SMITH, Dontae rush up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the SYR2 (BARRON, Justin;THOMPSON, Stefon). PENALTY SYR Face mask on DARTON, Kevon enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards SYR Unsportsmanlike Conduct on DARTON, Kevon enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the SYR1 to the SYR1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by KING, Haynes at SYR2 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:41
LeQuint Allen 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-23.7
TD · Q3 14:43
Jamal Haynes run for 30 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q3 10:07
Dan Villari 4 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)
-10.3