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UNA

North Alabama 13 at Florida State 58

FSU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadUNA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreUNA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:46 · Adam Watford punt for 38 yds, downed at the FSU 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense−1.9Pregame prior+12.6Score differential−1.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Blowout margin+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:57: Noah Walters pass complete to JJ Evans for 6 yds for a TD (Sam Contorno PAT BLOCKED) — UNA win probability +5.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UNA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:38: Trey Benson run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:04: Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:40: Lawrance Toafili run for 17 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:16: Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 26 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 13:34UNA 4th & 4 at UNA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:54FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:45UNA 4th & 1 at UNA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:43FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:31FSU 4th & 5 at UNA 5, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:24UNA 4th & 6 at UNA 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:07FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:46UNA 4th & 21 at UNA 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−3.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:21UNA 4th & 16 at FSU 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    41.0%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:00FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 38, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:29UNA 4th & 13 at UNA 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:53FSU 4th & 2 at UNA 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.7%−1.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:48UNA 4th & 11 at UNA 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:48UNA 4th & 10 at UNA 25, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:59UNA 4th & 8 at UNA 27, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:41FSU 4th & 7 at UNA 40, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:28UNA 4th & 23 at UNA 27, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00UNA 4th & 5 at FSU 17, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:15UNA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:57UNA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:38FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:04FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:40FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:16FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:12FSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:37FSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:43FSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1730% → 30%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.5%
Noah Walters sacked by Joshua Farmer for a loss of 1 yard to the UNA 24Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
70.4%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to Takairee KenebrewSimilar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
70.4%
Noah Walters run for 7 yds to the UNA 31Similar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
70.3%
Adam Watford punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:3170% → 70%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.3%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+18
70.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 18 yds to the FSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
70.3%
Rodney Hill run for 2 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
70.3%
North Alabama Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gregory Reddick) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 3
50
0
70.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny Wilson, broken up by Amauri FloydSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 3
50
-3
70.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 47Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+6
69.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 45 yds , Kobe Warden returns for 6 yds to the UNA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 3TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 3:3330% → 34%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
69.8%
Noah Walters pass complete to Takairee Kenebrew for a loss of 1 yard to the UNA 13Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+4
69.7%
Demarcus Lacey run for 4 yds to the UNA 17Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+6
69.8%
Demarcus Lacey run for 6 yds to the UNA 23Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+64
69.6%
JJ Evans run for 64 yds to the FSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
68.4%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to Demarcus LaceySimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
68.4%
Noah Walters run for no gain to the FSU 13 Noah Walters fumbled, recovered by UNA Noah WaltersSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
65.8%
Noah Walters pass complete to Takairee Kenebrew for 13 yds for a TD (Sam Contorno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2667% → 66%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.7%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 3 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
66.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
66.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 3 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-3
65.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds , Kobe Warden returns for a loss of 3 yards to the UNA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 5TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:4134% → 42%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
65.7%
Dennis Moody run for 2 yds to the UNA 22Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+18
65.4%
Noah Walters run for 18 yds to the UNA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.3%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to Dakota WarfieldSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
64.6%
Jakob Cummings run for 6 yds to the UNA 46Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
64.2%
Walters, Noah pass pass intercepted by Green, Renardo at the FLORIDAST25, Green, Renardo return 0 yards to the FLORIDAST25, PENALTY FLORIDAST offside (Fiske, Braden) 5 yards to the FLORIDAST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHALA.Similar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+28
63.5%
Kobe Warden run for 28 yds to the FSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
62.9%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to Takairee KenebrewSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+15
62.9%
Noah Walters pass complete to Dennis Moody for 15 yds to the FSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
57.6%
Noah Walters pass complete to JJ Evans for 6 yds for a TD (Sam Contorno PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:1761% → 59%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
60.9%
Jordan Travis run for 16 yds to the UNA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
61.5%
Rodney Hill run for 4 yds to the UNA 45Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+10
61.2%
Tate Rodemaker run for 10 yds to the UNA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
61.7%
Rodney Hill run for 5 yds to the UNA 30Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+10
61.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 10 yds to the UNA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
61.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 12 yds to the UNA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
60.6%
Trey Benson run for 7 yds to the UNA 1Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
61.7%
Benson, Trey rush for no gain to the NORTHALA1, PENALTY NORTHALA offside (Reddick, Gregory) 0 yards to the NORTHALA1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
60.2%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Edwin White Schultz for a loss of 4 yards to the UNA 5Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Ja'Khi Douglas, broken up by Philjae Bien-AimeSimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
59.0%
Ryan Fitzgerald 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0041% → 42%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
58.6%
Walters, Noah pass incomplete to Rawls, Kenny, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Graham Jr., Omar) 15 yards to the NORTHALA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHALA.Similar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
57.7%
Noah Walters run for 4 yds to the UNA 44Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
57.0%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to Takairee Kenebrew, broken up by Patrick PaytonSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
57.2%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to David Florence, broken up by Patrick PaytonSimilar
Q2 11:24
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
57.8%
Adam Watford punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:0857% → 56%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
56.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Keon Coleman for 11 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
57.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
57.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FSU 32Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
56.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Destyn HillSimilar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
56.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kobe Warden at the UNA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:5143% → 43%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
56.6%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to Dennis MoodySimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
56.8%
Dennis Moody run for 1 yd to the UNA 23Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+3
56.7%
Noah Walters sacked by Jarrian Jones for a loss of 13 yards to the UNA 7 Noah Walters fumbled, forced by Jarrian Jones, recovered by FSU Jarrian Jones , return for 3 yds to the UNA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:2659% → 68%
Q2 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
58.7%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the UNA 4Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.9%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:4736% → 36%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.8%
Noah Walters pass complete to Kobe Warden for 5 yds to the UNA 30Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
62.1%
Noah Walters run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNA 28Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-14
62.7%
Demarcus Lacey run for no gain to the UNA 28 North Alabama Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Demarcus Lacey) to the UNA 14Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
64.1%
Adam Watford punt for 38 yds, downed at the FSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:3165% → 74%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
65.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 9 yds to the UNA 43Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+12
65.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 12 yds to the UNA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
66.7%
Rodemaker, Tate pass incomplete to Wilson, Johnny, PENALTY NORTHALA pass interference (Williams, Ashaad) 15 yards to the NORTHALA16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
66.6%
Caziah Holmes run for 13 yds to the UNA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 13PUNT
14 plays · 37 yds · 3:3827% → 27%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.1%
Noah Walters run for 2 yds to the UNA 27Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
73.0%
Noah Walters pass complete to Dennis Moody for 16 yds to the UNA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
71.7%
Dennis Moody run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNA 42Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+10
72.0%
Noah Walters pass complete to KJ Fields for 10 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
70.8%
Noah Walters run for 1 yd to the FSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
69.7%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to Dennis MoodySimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
70.6%
Walters, Noah pass incomplete to Kenebrew, Takairee, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Green, Renardo) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHALA.Similar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
68.4%
Noah Walters pass complete to David Florence for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 34Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 12
OPP 34
-4
68.9%
Noah Walters sacked by Braden Fiske for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 38Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 16
OPP 38
0
71.7%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to Takairee KenebrewSimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 16
OPP 38
0
73.0%
Adam Watford punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:3171% → 83%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
71.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 14 yds to the FSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+49
71.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 49 yds to the UNA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
74.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
83.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 17 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.2%
Jakob Cummings run for 2 yds to the UNA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5381% → 80%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
81.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the FSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
82.3%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 42Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-4
82.4%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Kaleb Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 38Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
81.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
80.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kobe Warden at the UNA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:2719% → 17%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
80.8%
Moody, Dennis rush for 2 yards to the NORTHALA21, PENALTY NORTHALA holding (McInnish, Logan) 9 yards to the NORTHALA10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+3
81.0%
Noah Walters pass complete to Kaleb Heatherly for 3 yds to the UNA 13Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 16
OWN 13
-1
81.4%
Noah Walters pass complete to Dennis Moody for a loss of 1 yard to the UNA 12Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+4
82.3%
Dennis Moody run for 4 yds to the UNA 16Similar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 13
OWN 16
+6
83.0%
Adam Watford punt for 45 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 6 yds to the FSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3284% → 83%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
83.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
83.6%
Rodemaker, Tate pass incomplete to Douglas, Ja'Khi, PENALTY NORTHALA pass interference (Reddick, Gregory) 12 yards to the NORTHALA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
84.2%
Rodney Hill run for 5 yds to the UNA 38Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
84.2%
Rodney Hill run for 4 yds to the UNA 34Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-1
83.8%
Rodney Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNA 35Similar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
83.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Jaheim BellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5918% → 16%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.7%
Noah Walters run for no gain to the UNA 35Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-4
82.0%
Demarcus Lacey sacked by DJ Lundy and Akeem Dent for a loss of 4 yards to the UNA 31Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+3
83.6%
Noah Walters run for 3 yds to the UNA 34Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
84.1%
Adam Watford punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 4:2584% → 95%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
84.3%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
84.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Trey BensonSimilar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+10
83.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 10 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
85.5%
Rodemaker, Tate pass sacked for loss of 13 yards to the FLORIDAST23 (White Schultz, Edwin), fumble forced by White Schultz, Edwin, fumble by Rodemaker, Tate recovered by FLORIDAST Washington, Darius at FLORIDAST23, PENALTY NORTHALA offside (Daniels, Tyrik) 5 yards to the FLORIDAST41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+13
86.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 13 yds to the UNA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
86.2%
Florida State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaheim Bell) to the FSU 39Similar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Kyle MorlockSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
86.3%
Florida State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FSU 34Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+5
85.6%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 5 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+19
85.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 19 yds to the UNA 42 for a 1ST down North Alabama Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
86.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
85.5%
Caziah Holmes run for 6 yds to the UNA 36Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+8
85.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 8 yds to the UNA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
87.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 2 yds to the UNA 26Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+26
94.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 26 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 21INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:537% → 6%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.1%
Noah Walters pass complete to Takairee Kenebrew for 1 yd to the UNA 26Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
94.2%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to David FlorenceSimilar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
94.3%
Noah Walters pass intercepted Jarrian Jones return for 2 yds to the UNA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
99.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Keon Coleman for 24 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.9%
Noah Walters pass complete to Dakota Warfield for 2 yds to the UNA 27Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
98.9%
Noah Walters pass complete to David Florence for a loss of 2 yards to the UNA 25Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to Takairee Kenebrew, broken up by Azareye'h ThomasSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Adam Watford punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
99.7%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 70 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Noah Walters run for 2 yds to the UNA 27Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Jakob Cummings run for no gain to the UNA 27Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Noah Walters pass incomplete to Dennis Moody, broken up by Greedy Vance Jr.Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Adam Watford punt for 40 yds, downed at the FSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
99.8%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 24 yds to the UNA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.8%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNA 40Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Brock Glenn run for no gain to the UNA 40Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Brock Glenn run for no gain to the UNA 40 Florida State Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Destyn HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Myles Murphy run for no gain to the UNA 40Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Myles Murphy run for 2 yds to the UNA 42Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-15
99.9%
Ben Harris sacked by Gilber Edmond for a loss of 15 yards to the UNA 27 Ben Harris fumbled, forced by Gilber Edmond, recovered by UNA Stevie Young , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 23
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Adam Watford punt for 43 yds, downed at the FSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:38100% → 100%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.9%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 6 yds to the FSU 36Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-10
99.9%
Singleton Jr., Samuel rush for 11 yards to the FLORIDAST47, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Early, Jaylen) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 7 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+15
99.9%
Glenn, Brock pass incomplete to Hill, Destyn, PENALTY NORTHALA personal foul (Howard, Avery) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
99.9%
Brock Glenn run for a loss of 6 yards to the FSU 42 Brock Glenn fumbled, forced by Ashaad Williams, recovered by FSU Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 8
50
+28
99.9%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 28 yds to the UNA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
99.9%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNA 21Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+10
99.9%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 10 yds to the UNA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
100.0%
Brock Glenn run for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK)Similar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
99.9%
Florida State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UNA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 29END OF GAME TD
14 plays · 58 yds · 3:360% → 0%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Kaden Cooper run for 6 yds to the UNA 31Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
100.0%
Dennis Moody run for 6 yds to the UNA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
100.0%
Harris, Ben pass incomplete to Luke, Justin, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Barker, Ashlynd) 13 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHALA.Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
50
+2
100.0%
Kaden Cooper run for 2 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
100.0%
Ben Harris pass complete to Jakob Cummings for 7 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+8
100.0%
Ben Harris run for 8 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
100.0%
Ben Harris pass complete to Jakob Cummings for 11 yds to the FSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
100.0%
Ben Harris pass incomplete to KJ FieldsSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
100.0%
Ben Harris pass incomplete to Justin LukeSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+5
100.0%
Ben Harris run for 5 yds to the FSU 17Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+50
100.0%
Quindarrius Jones 50 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:38
Trey Benson run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q2 0:40
Lawrance Toafili run for 17 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+9
TD · Q3 2:16
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 26 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com