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DUKE

Duke 27 at Virginia 30

UVA
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.6UVA 74.4%Todd Pelino 34 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 24 · Q3 4:23
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:23 · Todd Pelino 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense+11.1Pregame prior−5.7Garbage-time factor+1.3Score differential+4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Time remaining+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:03: Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 29 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +18.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:33: Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 7 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +15.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:18: Will Bettridge 21 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +8.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:03: Jaquez Moore run for 58 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +12.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:13: Grayson Loftis pass complete to Mehki Wall for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +17.2 pts (now 23%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:55UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:53DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:16UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:04UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:29UVA 4th & 4 at DUKE 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:19DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:19DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:21UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05DUKE 4th & 1 at UVA 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%−2.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:52DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 30, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:23DUKE 4th & 4 at UVA 16, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.4%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−8.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:20UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:02DUKE 4th & 10 at UVA 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−4.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:00UVA 4th & 2 at midfield, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.5%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:18UVA 4th & 4 at DUKE 4, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.9%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−6.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:18DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:03UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.1%−4.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:43UVA 4th & 6 at DUKE 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−4.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:29UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:00DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:03UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:33UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:03DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:13DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0533% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
32.9%
Kobe Pace run for 13 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
32.9%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-5
32.9%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Furnish,Ty) 5 yards from UVA41 to UVA36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+1
32.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 1 yd to the UVA 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
32.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Mike HollinsSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+1
33.7%
Daniel Sparks punt for 44 yds , Jalon Calhoun returns for 1 yd to the DUKE 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0266% → 65%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
33.8%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the DUKE 24Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
33.8%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
33.8%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 29Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
34.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Suderian Harrison at the UVA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:2435% → 40%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
34.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Grant Misch for 5 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
34.7%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+9
34.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Ethan Davies for 9 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
34.8%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+14
35.1%
Mike Hollins run for 14 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
35.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Ethan DaviesSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
35.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 7 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
35.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for 4 yds to the DUKE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
39.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 34 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:4161% → 60%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
38.6%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+12
38.6%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
38.3%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+8
37.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 8 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
38.0%
Grayson Loftis run for 1 yd to the UVA 40Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+4
38.0%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+11
38.1%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the UVA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
39.8%
Jordan Waters run for 10 yds to the UVA 15 Jordan Waters fumbled, recovered by UVA Caleb Hardy at UVA15, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:3242% → 42%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+29
41.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 29 yds to the UVA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
42.8%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
42.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 1 yd to the UVA 47Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
42.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Mike HollinsSimilar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
42.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DUKE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:0858% → 57%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
42.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Loftis,Grayson pass incomplete short middle to Hagans,Sahmir PENALTY UVA Roughing The Passer (Smiley III,Ben) 15 yards from DUKE24 to DUKE39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
41.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 9 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-6
41.2%
Grayson Loftis sacked by Michael Diatta for a loss of 6 yards to the DUKE 42Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+12
42.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 12 yds to the UVA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
42.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 33 yds , Suderian Harrison returns for 10 yds to the UVA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5645% → 44%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
44.7%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the UVA 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
44.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Sackett Wood Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-7
44.1%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 10Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
44.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 3:0456% → 63%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
43.9%
Jordan Waters run for 12 yds to the UVA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
43.3%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
43.3%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+11
43.6%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 11 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+21
42.4%
Jaquez Moore run for 14 yds to the UVA 14 for a 1ST down Virginia Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Michael Diatta) to the UVA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
37.3%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:3141% → 45%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
41.2%
Anthony Colandrea run for 30 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
43.2%
Mike Hollins run for 7 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+3
43.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 3 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
43.7%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
43.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass incomplete deep right to Washington,Malik broken up by Stinson,Jaylen PENALTY UVA Holding offsetting DUKE Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+3
43.7%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+2
42.9%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
44.5%
Will Bettridge 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1056% → 54%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
43.6%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jeremiah HasleySimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
43.9%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
44.5%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+23
46.5%
Porter Wilson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 48 , Suderian Harrison returns for 23 yds to the UVA 48 Virginia Penalty, Illegal Block (Yards) to the UVA 48Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+23
46.5%
Porter Wilson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 17 , Suderian Harrison returns for 23 yds to the UVA 48 Virginia Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UVA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:5845% → 45%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
45.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pace,Kobe rush left for 7 yards gain to the UVA24 (Morris Jr.,Nick; Franklin,Ja'Mion) PENALTY UVA Holding (Boley,McKale) 9 yards from UVA17 to UVA08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 19
OWN 8
+3
45.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for 3 yds to the UVA 5Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 22
OWN 5
-2
44.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pace,Kobe rush middle for 19 yards gain to the UVA24 (Lewis,Jeremiah) PENALTY UVA Personal Foul (Davies,Ethan) 2 yards from UVA05 to UVA03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 24
OWN 3
+1
44.9%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 4Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 23
OWN 4
0
44.0%
Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+5
45.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 57 yds , Jalon Calhoun returns for 5 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12FG
18 plays · 60 yds · 4:2153% → 62%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
46.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
46.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 8 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
45.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
46.3%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+15
47.0%
Virginia Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Aaron Faumui) to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
44.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+4
43.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
43.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the UVA 38Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+2
45.5%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
44.4%
Jordan Moore run for 1 yd to the UVA 35Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+12
43.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds to the UVA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
42.9%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 12 yds to the UVA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
42.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
42.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+29
37.7%
Todd Pelino 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0858% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
42.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+2
41.0%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
41.6%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 30Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+8
44.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 43 yds , Suderian Harrison returns for 8 yds to the UVA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:4947% → 65%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
47.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for 10 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
49.4%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 45Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
48.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 1 yd to the UVA 44Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+27
46.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 27 yds to the DUKE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
65.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 29 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15INT
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:2239% → 42%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
60.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 16 yds to the DUKE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
59.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Loftis,Grayson pass incomplete short right broken up by Faumui,Aaron PENALTY UVA Roughing The Passer (Bennett, Jr.,Chico) 15 yards from DUKE31 to DUKE46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
57.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 6
50
-15
58.1%
Grayson Loftis pass intercepted Caleb Hardy return for no gain to the 50 yard line Virginia Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UVA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 3:0865% → 83%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
65.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 25 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
67.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 17 yds to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
68.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 18 yds to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
68.2%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the DUKE 9Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
68.2%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the DUKE 7Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 7 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:1022% → 26%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+33
78.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 33 yds to the UVA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
75.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 10 yds to the UVA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
74.8%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the UVA 21Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+5
74.8%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 5 yds to the UVA 16Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
76.1%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
74.4%
Todd Pelino 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0378% → 78%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.1%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
77.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
77.6%
Daniel Sparks punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:1823% → 21%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
77.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 8 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+34
75.9%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 34 yds to the UVA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
73.3%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
73.8%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
75.5%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for no gain to the UVA 27Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
78.7%
Todd Pelino 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 6:4481% → 93%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
81.0%
Kobe Pace run for 15 yds to the UVA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
82.3%
Anthony Colandrea run for 7 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
82.4%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the DUKE 49Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+1
81.5%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
50
+2
83.0%
Grady Brosterhous run for 2 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
84.9%
Anthony Colandrea run for 5 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+22
84.9%
Mike Hollins run for 22 yds to the DUKE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
84.9%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Wilson,JR) 5 yards from DUKE21 to DUKE26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+4
84.9%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+7
84.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to JR Wilson for 7 yds to the DUKE 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+8
84.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Mike Hollins for 8 yds to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
84.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 3 yds to the DUKE 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
84.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
84.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q4 10:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
93.0%
Will Bettridge 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:159% → 23%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jeremiah HasleySimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.5%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Mehki Wall for 6 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
90.0%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+11
90.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Mehki Wall for 11 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.5%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+58
77.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 58 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22FG
18 plays · 62 yds · 5:2084% → 94%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Ethan DaviesSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
83.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
85.6%
Anthony Colandrea run for 5 yds to the UVA 44Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
86.0%
Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
85.2%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 48Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
84.3%
Grady Brosterhous run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
50
0
86.1%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
50
+12
85.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 12 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
86.5%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+23
86.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 23 yds to the DUKE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
86.6%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the DUKE 14Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+2
94.4%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the DUKE 16Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+3
94.2%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the DUKE 13Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
93.5%
Will Bettridge 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:304% → 23%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.6%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 10 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 1 yd to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
95.6%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+14
95.8%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 14 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
95.0%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jaylen ColemanSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
95.0%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 12 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
94.5%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Mehki Wall for 13 yds to the UVA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
93.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Mehki Wall for 4 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
93.7%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+13
94.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 13 yds to the UVA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
93.7%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
93.7%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Mehki WallSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
94.6%
Virginia Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (James Jackson) to the UVA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Mehki Wall for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:1392% → 96%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
92.3%
Kneel down by Virginia at DUKE44 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-2
96.3%
Kneel down by Virginia at DUKE46 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:03
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 29 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
+18.8
TD · Q4 1:13
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Mehki Wall for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q3 6:33
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 7 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
+15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com