Try the model
BC

Boston College 16 at Pittsburgh 24

PITT
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:14 · Daniel Carter run for no gain to the BC 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Home team on offense+6.3Garbage-time factor+1.6Pregame prior+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Score differential+1.4Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:07: Nate Yarnell run for 4 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +8.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:56: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 24 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +16.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:22: Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 61 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +21.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:19: Liam Connor 33 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +4.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 4:29: Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 66 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +29.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 14:56BC 4th & 1 at BC 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:46BC 4th & 10 at PITT 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:07PITT 4th & 9 at BC 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:03BC 4th & 17 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00PITT 4th & 3 at BC 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.5%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:09BC 4th & 20 at BC 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−2.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:14PITT 4th & 1 at BC 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.0%−1.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−6.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:26BC 4th & 9 at PITT 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:52PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:51PITT 4th & 8 at BC 34, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:23BC 4th & 12 at PITT 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    29.7%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:29PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 2, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−7.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:19BC 4th & 15 at PITT 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−6.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−16.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:27BC 4th & 11 at BC 24, down 8
    Close callPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:12PITT 4th & 3 at BC 41, up 8
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:18BC 4th & 20 at BC 7, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 9:07PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:56BC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:22PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:29PITT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 6:1047% → 47%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
53.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
53.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+2
53.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 14:56
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+3
53.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
53.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+25
53.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 25 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
53.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+9
53.3%
Alex Broome run for 9 yds to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
53.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+12
53.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 12 yds to the PITT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
53.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the PITT 23Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-2
53.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 25Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+1
53.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the PITT 24Similar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
53.3%
Liam Connor 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:3853% → 55%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the PITT 27Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+24
53.2%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 24 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
54.0%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-1
54.0%
C'Bo Flemister run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 46Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+21
53.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 21 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
54.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the BC 24Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
54.5%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
54.0%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
54.6%
Ben Sauls 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:0446% → 46%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
54.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
53.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
53.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 16 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
53.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
53.1%
Alex Broome run for 2 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-9
53.3%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Deandre Jules for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 17
50
0
54.3%
Sam Candotti punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 7:5655% → 65%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
54.7%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 15 yds to the PITT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
54.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 6 yds to the PITT 36Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
55.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the PITT 39Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+6
55.4%
Nate Yarnell run for 6 yds to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
56.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
56.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+3
55.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+4
55.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
56.7%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+24
56.6%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 24 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
57.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
57.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+8
56.4%
Nate Yarnell run for 8 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
57.0%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the BC 4Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.1%
Nate Yarnell run for 4 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:5837% → 34%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
63.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
62.7%
Boston College Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Thomas Castellanos) to the BC 16Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
65.2%
Sam Candotti punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
66.0%
YARNELL, Nate pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for EPPS, Malcolm broken up by JOHNSON, Khari at the BCE32 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY BCE Targeting on JOHNSON, Khari enforced 15 yards from the PIT45 to the BCE40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:5566% → 66%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
66.3%
Kenny Johnson run for 14 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
66.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 5 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
66.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
65.7%
Nate Yarnell run for 2 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
66.2%
Daniel Carter run for no gain to the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:4835% → 39%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
64.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 18Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-7
65.1%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 11Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+22
66.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 22 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
64.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-6
62.9%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 34Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+38
65.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 38 yds to the PITT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
60.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
60.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+1
64.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the PITT 27Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
61.2%
Liam Connor 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.0%
Kneel down by YARNELL, Nate at PIT24 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0862% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.5%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 6 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
60.9%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
60.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 52 yds, downed at the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 4:5639% → 59%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
61.2%
Alex Broome run for 4 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
61.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+10
61.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 10 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.2%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for GRIFFIN, Joe thrown to the PIT20; QB hurried by KAMARA, Bangally. PENALTY PIT Offsides on WOODS, A.J. declined PIT Holding on WOODS, A.J. enforced 10 yards from the BCE36 to the BCE46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+11
57.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Nate Johnson for 11 yds to the PITT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
56.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the PITT 24Similar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
58.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Owen McGowan for 9 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+1
57.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
57.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+24
41.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 24 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:0848% → 68%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
47.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 9Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+12
44.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 12 yds to the PITT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
46.3%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 18 yds to the PITT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
68.1%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 61 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12INT
8 plays · 57 yds · 4:0836% → 43%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
62.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
62.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
61.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 9 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
59.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for 14 yds to the PITT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
59.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the PITT 32Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+14
57.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 14 yds to the PITT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
57.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass intercepted Phillip O'Brien Jr. return for no gain to the PITT 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13MISSED FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:2367% → 70%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
66.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the PITT 2Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+40
66.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 40 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
70.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 12 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
71.8%
YARNELL, Nate sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the BCE49 (EZEIRUAKU, Donovan). PENALTY BCE Holding on JACKSON, Amari enforced 10 yards from the BCE46 to the BCE36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
71.8%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
72.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
72.0%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+52
69.6%
Ben Sauls 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:2836% → 32%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
64.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 9 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+7
61.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
50
+11
60.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 11 yds to the PITT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
60.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the PITT 35Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-1
57.9%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Shayne Simon for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 36Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-5
60.8%
ROBICHAUX, Kye rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the PIT31 (HAYES, Dayon). PENALTY Before the snap, BCE Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the PIT36 to the PIT41. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
63.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
67.9%
Sam Candotti punt for 38 yds, downed at the PITT 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5469% → 66%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
68.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 4Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
68.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the PITT 4Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
66.9%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the PITT 2Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 11
OWN 2
0
66.9%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 11
OWN 2
0
66.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 4:1039% → 40%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
60.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds to the PITT 32Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+9
58.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 9 yds to the PITT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
58.0%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the PITT 23Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+14
59.5%
Thomas Castellanos run for 14 yds to the PITT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
57.7%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the PITT 9Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
57.7%
Boston College Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ozzy Trapilo) to the PITT 17Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
0
60.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+2
64.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the PITT 15Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
60.0%
Liam Connor 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:5063% → 93%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
63.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 9 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+66
92.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 66 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0211% → 9%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
88.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
87.9%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (Jeremiah Franklin) to the BC 26Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
89.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Thomas Castellanos for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 24Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
91.4%
Sam Candotti punt for 38 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the PITT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 1:0896% → 97%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
95.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 14 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
96.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the BC 47Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+2
96.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
96.1%
Nate Yarnell run for 4 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-5
95.6%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the BC 46Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 8
OPP 46
+5
95.6%
Boston College Penalty, Offsides (Khari Johnson) to the BC 41Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
97.0%
Caleb Junko punt for 35 yds , Lewis Bond returns for no gain to the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:545% → 4%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
95.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-6
95.3%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Samuel Okunlola for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 11Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 16
OWN 11
-5
95.6%
Boston College Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the BC 7Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 20
OWN 7
-1
96.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass intercepted M.J. Devonshire return for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
50
0
97.6%
Kneel down by YARNELL, Nate at PIT49 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:29
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 66 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+29.5
TD · Q3 7:22
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 61 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+21.8
TD · Q3 8:56
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 24 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
-16.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com