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MIA

Miami 20 at Florida State 27

FSU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:41 · Dylan Joyce punt for 60 yds, downed at the FSU 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+8.8Home team on offense+10.9Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:42: Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for 3 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +7.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Andres Borregales 27 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +9.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:48: Trey Benson run for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +13.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:00: Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:22: Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for 85 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +10.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
  1. Q1 12:57FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:51MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:41MIA 4th & 18 at FSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:09FSU 4th & 8 at MIA 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:31MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:47FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00MIA 4th & 6 at FSU 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−6.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:11MIA 4th & 16 at FSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:32FSU 4th & 4 at MIA 4, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−10.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:07MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:51MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:59FSU 4th & 25 at FSU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−4.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:41MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:35FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−1.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:24MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:02MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:33FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:26FSU 4th & 19 at FSU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−2.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:48MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−2.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:40MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:13FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:42MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:48FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:00FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:22MIA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5283% → 82%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
82.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 17 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
82.4%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 39Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
82.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaheim BellSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+7
82.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 7 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
82.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 52 yds, downed at the MIA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0018% → 18%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
82.0%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+4
82.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the MIA 6Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
81.8%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
81.9%
Dylan Joyce punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3282% → 83%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
81.9%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
81.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 5 yds to the MIA 46Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+7
81.6%
Trey Benson run for 7 yds to the MIA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
81.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
81.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the MIA 37Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+16
81.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 16 yds to the MIA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
81.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the MIA 21Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
81.2%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Offside (James Williams) to the MIA 16Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+9
81.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 9 yds to the MIA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
81.1%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the MIA 5Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.6%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:3218% → 18%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.1%
Miami Penalty, False Start (Francis Mauigoa) to the MIA 20Similar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
82.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 8 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
82.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+43
82.0%
Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for 43 yds to the FSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
81.0%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
81.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 23Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-10
81.3%
Emory Williams sacked by Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 10 yards to the FSU 33Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 18
OPP 33
+51
82.1%
Andres Borregales 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:2682% → 82%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
82.1%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FSU 35Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
82.0%
Trey Benson run for 7 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
82.1%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
82.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+18
82.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 18 yds to the MIA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
82.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+16
82.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 16 yds to the MIA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
82.3%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the MIA 15Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
82.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
82.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
81.5%
Ryan Fitzgerald 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:3218% → 18%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-14
81.8%
Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-14 Yards) to the MIA 15Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+25
82.3%
Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for 25 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
81.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 41Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
81.3%
Emory Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-5
81.6%
Emory Williams sacked by Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 5 yards to the MIA 36Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
82.3%
Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:3681% → 80%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
81.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 16 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
81.4%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 27Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 13
OWN 27
-1
81.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 26Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+1
80.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 1 yd to the FSU 27Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
80.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MIA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 5:5818% → 28%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
81.9%
Brashard Smith run for 6 yds to the MIA 24Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+4
81.7%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 4 yds to the MIA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
81.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
81.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 4 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
81.9%
Emory Williams run for 6 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
81.1%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 26 yds to the FSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
79.7%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+29
79.7%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 29 yds to the FSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
79.6%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the FSU 4Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
79.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the FSU 3Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.4%
Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for 3 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -24 yds · 1:1276% → 74%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
76.1%
Florida State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jeremiah Byers) to the FSU 15Similar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-14
75.9%
Jordan Travis sacked by Wesley Bissainthe for a loss of 14 yards to the FSU 1Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 34
OWN 1
0
75.0%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the FSU 1Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 34
OWN 1
0
74.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 34
OWN 1
+16
73.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds , Damari Brown returns for 16 yds to the FSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10END OF HALF
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:2029% → 32%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
71.2%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+18
71.3%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 18 yds to the FSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
70.6%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the FSU 13Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+9
72.3%
Emory Williams pass complete to Brashard Smith for 9 yds to the FSU 4Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-5
73.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 9Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
67.8%
Andres Borregales 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:3934% → 35%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
66.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 20 yds to the FSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
65.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 28Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-2
65.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 30Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 13
OPP 30
-3
67.5%
Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 33Similar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 16
OPP 33
+51
65.5%
Andres Borregales 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12FG
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:3365% → 73%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
65.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 8 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+62
67.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 62 yds to the MIA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
69.7%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
69.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 3 yds to the MIA 2Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
67.8%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 4Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
72.5%
Ryan Fitzgerald 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1533% → 32%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
67.5%
Emory Williams run for no gain to the MIA 19Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
67.3%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 4 yds to the MIA 23Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+1
67.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 24Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
68.3%
Dylan Joyce punt for 41 yds , Keon Coleman returns for no gain to the FSU 35 Keon Coleman fumbled, recovered by FSU Keon Coleman at FLORIDAST35.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:1270% → 86%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
70.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FSU 36Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+26
70.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 26 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
86.0%
Trey Benson run for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:5219% → 17%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.2%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
81.5%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
82.3%
Florida State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Azareye'h Thomas) to the MIA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
80.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 36Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
81.1%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 37Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
81.7%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Isaiah HortonSimilar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+5
82.7%
Dylan Joyce punt for 48 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 5 yds to the FSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:4784% → 86%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
84.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 7 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+11
84.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 11 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
85.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 21 yds to the MIA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
87.2%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 43Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
86.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-13
85.8%
Jordan Travis sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 13 yards to the FSU 44Similar
Q3 0:59
4TH & 25
OWN 44
0
85.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1316% → 15%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
83.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 5Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+6
84.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 11Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
84.2%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
84.8%
Dylan Joyce punt for 60 yds, downed at the FSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0388% → 87%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
88.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
87.8%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
87.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
87.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0715% → 13%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
84.9%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Mark Fletcher Jr.Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
85.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 17Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
86.0%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 9
OWN 17
+57
86.6%
Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 57 yds to the MIA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:1591% → 96%
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
90.6%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the MIA 3Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+1
91.4%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Davonte Brown) to the MIA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
90.7%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 6Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:485% → 5%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 25Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Isaiah HortonSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Dylan Joyce punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2396% → 96%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.4%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the FSU 30Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
96.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+6
96.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 6 yds to the FSU 36Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
96.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brashard Smith at the MIA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:114% → 14%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
95.7%
Miami Penalty, False Start (Francis Mauigoa) to the MIA 15Similar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+85
85.6%
Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for 85 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:4790% → 93%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
90.0%
Trey Benson run for 17 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
91.1%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 43Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
91.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 10 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
92.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the MIA 43Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-1
93.3%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 44Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-12
92.8%
Jordan Travis sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 12 yards to the FSU 44Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 19
OWN 44
0
92.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brashard Smith at the MIA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25INT
15 plays · 37 yds · 3:4010% → 8%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
89.6%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+9
89.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Brashard Smith for 9 yds to the MIA 21Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 1
OWN 21
-1
90.0%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 20Similar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+2
92.2%
Emory Williams run for 2 yds to the MIA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
91.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
91.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 25Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-5
92.7%
Miami Penalty, False Start (Francis Mauigoa) to the MIA 20Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+14
93.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 14 yds to the MIA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
91.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 15 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
90.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
90.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
91.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
92.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted Jarrian Jones return for no gain to the FSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:2097% → 97%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
96.7%
Florida State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the FSU 20Similar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
96.6%
Miami Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the FSU 25Similar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 5
OWN 25
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:48
Trey Benson run for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+13
TD · Q4 8:22
Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for 85 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-10
FG · Q2 0:00
Andres Borregales 27 yd FG GOOD
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com