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DUKE

Duke 45 at North Carolina 47

UNC
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:40 · Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the UNC 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+4.2Home team on offense+3.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 9:41: Jordan Waters run for 13 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +25.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 5:21: Jordan Waters run for 23 yds for a TD (Jalon Calhoun pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — DUKE win probability +42.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:55: Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 15 yds for a TD Duke Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chandler Rivers) declined (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +44.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:41: Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 30 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +64.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Noah Burnette 43 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +35.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:48DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:53UNC 4th & 6 at DUKE 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:29DUKE 4th & 7 at UNC 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:38UNC 4th & 10 at DUKE 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:23UNC 4th & 7 at DUKE 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:30DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:30UNC 4th & 9 at DUKE 39, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:30UNC 4th & 4 at DUKE 14, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−7.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:49UNC 4th & 9 at DUKE 9, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−9.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:49DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, down 5
    Numbers favored punt by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:18DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:22DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 30, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:56UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 37, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:40DUKE 4th & 1 at UNC 27, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−5.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−16.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:41DUKE 4th & 7 at UNC 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−2.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−8.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:44UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:18DUKE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:07DUKE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:55UNC Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:41DUKE Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:21DUKE Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    53.0%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    54.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:55UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−1.0
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:41DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1675% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 4 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
75.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 2 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
75.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 6 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
75.1%
British Brooks run for 4 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
75.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 5 yds to the UNC 46Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
75.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
75.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 48Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+43
75.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 43 yds to the DUKE 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
75.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 8 yds to the DUKE 1Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.1%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5625% → 24%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.5%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
75.4%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
75.6%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
75.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:5576% → 77%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
75.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 13 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
76.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+13
76.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 13 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
76.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
76.3%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+9
76.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 9 yds to the DUKE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
76.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 19 yds to the DUKE 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
76.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the DUKE 1Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.3%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the DUKE 1Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.2%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the DUKE 1Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
76.4%
Maye,Drake pass complete short right to Nesbit,Bryson for 1 yard to the DUK00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:57 PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution (Nesbit,Bryson) 5 yards from DUK01 to DUK06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
76.8%
Noah Burnette 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 5:2423% → 23%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.8%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
76.7%
PENALTY DUK Delay Of Game 5 yards from DUK27 to DUK22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+14
76.9%
Jordan Waters run for 14 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.6%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jeremiah HasleySimilar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
76.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+10
76.5%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 10 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
76.1%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the UNC 49Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
76.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+1
76.4%
Grayson Loftis run for 1 yd to the UNC 46Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
77.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:2277% → 84%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
77.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
77.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+11
77.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 11 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
77.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
78.0%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+14
77.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 14 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
78.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 31 yds to the DUKE 13 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Chandler Rivers) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
78.4%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the DUKE 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
78.4%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
77.8%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
83.5%
Noah Burnette 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 6:1318% → 26%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
81.6%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the DUKE 37Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+6
80.9%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
81.3%
PENALTY DUK False Start (Hornibrook,Jake) 5 yards from DUK43 to DUK38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+6
81.7%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the DUKE 44Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
81.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+7
81.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
80.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+21
80.8%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 21 yds to the UNC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
80.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 12 yds to the UNC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
73.6%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
77.2%
Drake Maye pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5926% → 38%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
73.6%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the UNC 10Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+7
73.6%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the UNC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.6%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the UNC 5Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
73.6%
Jordan Moore run for 2 yds to the UNC 3Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.7%
Grayson Loftis run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 1:3967% → 73%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
66.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
68.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+8
66.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+48
68.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 48 yds to the DUKE 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
70.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the DUKE 8Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
70.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
69.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
72.7%
Noah Burnette 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.0%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3030% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.8%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
69.8%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
70.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Loftis,Grayson pass incomplete short right to Calhoun,Jalon PENALTY DUK Holding offsetting UNC Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
70.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FG
17 plays · 55 yds · 6:4172% → 75%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
71.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 40Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
72.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
72.1%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
73.4%
Drake Maye sacked by Nick Morris Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 43Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 13
OPP 43
-2
72.0%
Drake Maye sacked by Tre Freeman for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 45Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+6
70.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 6 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+9
70.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 9 yds to the DUKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
73.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 10 yds to the DUKE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
73.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass incomplete deep right to Walker,Devontez PENALTY UNC Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting DUK Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
73.9%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the DUKE 20Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
73.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 7 yds to the DUKE 13Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+1
72.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the DUKE 14Similar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+6
71.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 6 yds to the DUKE 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
73.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 1 yd to the DUKE 9Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
73.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
72.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
75.4%
Noah Burnette 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 4:3128% → 27%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the DUKE 25Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.5%
Grayson Loftis run for 2 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
73.5%
Grayson Loftis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+11
74.3%
Porter Wilson pass complete to Terry Moore for 11 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
70.9%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
70.5%
Jordan Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-2
70.3%
Grayson Loftis sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 41Similar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
72.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:2375% → 91%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
74.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 9 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+15
76.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 15 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
77.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass incomplete deep middle to Jones,J.J. QB hurried by Carter,DeWayne PENALTY DUK Pass Interference (Blades, Jr.,Al) 15 yards from DUK49 to DUK34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
78.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
78.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hampton,Omarion rush right for 0 yards to the DUK34 (Morris Jr.,Nick) PENALTY DUK Face Mask (Morris Jr.,Nick) 15 yards from DUK34 to DUK19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
78.2%
Drake Maye run for 14 yds to the DUKE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
78.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the DUKE 2Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
78.4%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the DUKE 2Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3312% → 11%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
87.3%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
87.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jaquez MooreSimilar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
89.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2690% → 92%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.2%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 34Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
90.0%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
90.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+5
91.5%
Tom Maginness punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DUKE 30 , Jalon Calhoun returns for 5 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:1511% → 37%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
89.1%
Grayson Loftis sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 27Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+14
90.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 14 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
88.6%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 12 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
88.1%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+6
87.8%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
88.1%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 23 yds to the UNC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
63.1%
Jordan Waters run for 13 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:1933% → 76%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
66.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the DUKE 49Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
65.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the UNC 46Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+10
66.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 10 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
65.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Loftis,Grayson pass incomplete deep left to Calhoun,Jalon PENALTY DUK Holding (Barton,Graham) 10 yards from UNC36 to UNC46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 20
OPP 46
0
67.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Mehki WallSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 20
OPP 46
+12
68.6%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+7
66.0%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+4
67.2%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the UNC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
24.5%
Jordan Waters run for 23 yds for a TD (Jalon Calhoun pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:2640% → 91%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 3 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+43
38.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 43 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
48.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
48.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+6
45.9%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
48.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass incomplete deep right to Walker,Devontez QB hurried by Freeman,Tre PENALTY DUK Holding (Rivers,Chandler) 10 yards from DUK25 to DUK15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
48.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 4 yds to the DUKE 19Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 14
OPP 19
0
47.4%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Omarion HamptonSimilar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+15
42.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 15 yds to the DUKE 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
48.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the DUKE 5Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
46.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass complete short left to Copenhaver,John for 5 yards to the DUK00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:59 PENALTY UNC Holding (Lampkin,Willie) 10 yards from DUK05 to DUK15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
91.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 15 yds for a TD Duke Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chandler Rivers) declined (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:1422% → 92%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.5%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
79.9%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
76.0%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 11 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
72.4%
PENALTY UNC Offside (Rucker,Kaimon) 5 yards from DUK47 to UNC48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+15
68.5%
Jordan Waters run for 15 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
68.1%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
66.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
70.6%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+30
8.1%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 30 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 0:4123% → 67%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
23.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass incomplete short right to Nesbit,Bryson, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DUK Pass Interference (Johnson,Brandon) 13 yards from UNC25 to UNC38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
25.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
25.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 6 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+10
26.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 10 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
24.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 7 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+14
30.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 14 yds to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+43
66.6%
Noah Burnette 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:41
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 30 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-64.8
TD · Q4 1:55
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 15 yds for a TD Duke Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chandler Rivers) declined (Noah Burnette KICK)
+44.6
TD · Q4 5:21
Jordan Waters run for 23 yds for a TD (Jalon Calhoun pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
-42.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com