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UVA

Virginia 24 at Louisville 31

LOU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2023 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:40 · Brady Hodges punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+40.2Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:15: Jack Griese run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +7.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:05: Jack Plummer pass intercepted for a TD Kamren Robinson return for 28 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +13.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:49: Malik Washington 42 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Will Bettridge Kick) — UVA win probability +21.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:20: Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 52 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +39.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:24: Isaac Guerendo 73 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick) — LOU win probability +19.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:40LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:46UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:46UVA 4th & 18 at UVA 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:25LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:50UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:57LOU 4th & 10 at UVA 28, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:17LOU 4th & 9 at UVA 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    85.5%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:01UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 9, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:58UVA 4th & 2 at LOU 25, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:40LOU 4th & 5 at UVA 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:48UVA 4th & 1 at LOU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−1.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−5.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:15UVA 4th & 1 at LOU 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−7.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:34LOU 4th & 19 at LOU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−5.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:15LOU 4th & 10 at UVA 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−3.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−14.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:54UVA 4th & 16 at LOU 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−6.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−16.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:36UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−6.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:16UVA 4th & 7 at LOU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−3.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:42LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:01LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:15UVA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:05UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:49UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:20LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−1.0
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:24LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0191% → 90%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
90.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 29Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
90.7%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
90.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 4 yds to the LOU 33Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
90.4%
Brady Hodges punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:4710% → 11%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
90.4%
Colandrea, Anthony pass complete to Washington, Malik for 14 yards to the VIRGINIA32, PENALTY VIRGINIA personal foul 9 yards to the VIRGINIA9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+3
90.3%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the UVA 12Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+19
90.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 19 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
89.9%
Malik Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 29Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-8
89.7%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 8 yards to the UVA 21Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 20
OWN 21
+15
89.7%
Anthony Colandrea run for 15 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 5
OWN 36
-5
89.5%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 31Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
89.5%
Daniel Sparks punt for 29 yds, downed at the LOU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 3:0490% → 90%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
89.5%
Virginia Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LOU 45Similar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+3
89.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
89.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the LOU 48Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+47
88.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 42 yds to the UVA 10 for a 1ST down Virginia Penalty, Defensive Holding (5 Yards) to the UVA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
89.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the UVA 4Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:4710% → 11%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.6%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
89.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the UVA 31Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
89.4%
Anthony Colandrea run for 9 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
89.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 13 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
88.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UVA 48Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 15
OWN 48
-3
89.1%
Kobe Pace run for a loss of 3 yards to the UVA 45Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 18
OWN 45
0
89.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the UVA 45Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 18
OWN 45
+8
89.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 40 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 8 yds to the LOU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0589% → 88%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
89.0%
Evan Conley run for 3 yds to the LOU 26Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
88.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Josh Lifson for 4 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
88.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
88.4%
Brady Hodges punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2512% → 11%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
88.4%
Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-1
88.1%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Antonio Watts for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 37Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-1
88.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Mike Hollins for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 36Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 8
OWN 36
-3
88.6%
Daniel Sparks punt for 39 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 22 Kevin Coleman fumbled, recovered by LOUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:3388% → 87%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
88.4%
Guerendo, Isaac rush for 3 yards to the LOUISVILLE25, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+19
88.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Duane Martin for 19 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+7
88.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
88.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
50
+7
88.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the UVA 43Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-8
88.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the LOU 41 Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
88.3%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+23
87.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 23 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
88.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
88.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the UVA 27Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+4
88.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 4 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 5
OPP 23
-5
87.6%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 28Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 10
OPP 28
-4
87.4%
Brady Hodges run for a loss of 4 yards to the UVA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:2313% → 15%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
87.0%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Jared Dawson for a loss of 4 yards to the UVA 28Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+6
87.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+26
87.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 26 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
86.1%
Colandrea, Anthony pass incomplete to Fields, Malachi, PENALTY LOUISVILLE substitution infraction 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 5
OPP 35
-8
85.4%
JR Wilson run for a loss of 8 yards to the LOU 43 JR Wilson fumbled, forced by Antonio Watts, recovered by LOU Ashton Gillotte Wilson, JR rush for loss of 8 yards to the LOUISVILLE43, fumble forced by Watts, Antonio, fumble by Wilson, JR recovered by LOUISVILLE Gillotte, Ashton at LOUISVILLE43.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:5988% → 87%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
88.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+1
88.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
88.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the UVA 44Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
88.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 1 yd to the UVA 43Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-3
87.9%
Jack Plummer sacked by Kamren Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the UVA 46Similar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
86.7%
Brady Hodges punt for 44 yds, downed at the UVA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT TD
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1613% → 9%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
86.8%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the UVA 1Similar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+3
86.8%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 4Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+3
86.8%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 7Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+2
87.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 2 yds to the UVA 9Similar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
90.7%
Jimmy Calloway 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brock Travelstead Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 1:5410% → 10%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
90.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for 14 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
89.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Perris Jones for 16 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
89.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 12 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
88.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JR WilsonSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
88.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for 7 yds to the LOU 26Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+1
88.7%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the LOU 25Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
89.9%
Will Bettridge 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:4592% → 92%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 2 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
91.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
91.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
92.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 9 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+14
92.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 14 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13INT
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:249% → 10%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
91.6%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the UVA 26 for a 1ST down Louisville Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+39
91.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 39 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
89.8%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the LOU 17Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
89.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
90.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted Devin Neal return for no gain to the LOU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:4192% → 93%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
92.0%
Jordan, Jawhar rush for loss of 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE6, PENALTY VIRGINIA offside 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 5
OWN 16
+17
92.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 17 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
92.2%
Plummer, Jack pass incomplete to Bell, Chris, PENALTY VIRGINIA holding 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
92.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 3
50
+17
92.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 17 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
92.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 10 yds to the UVA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
92.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 24Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
93.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+6
92.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the UVA 18Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
92.5%
Brock Travelstead 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:138% → 17%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
91.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 28 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
90.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 22 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
90.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
90.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to JR Wilson for 6 yds to the LOU 24Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+3
90.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 3 yds to the LOU 21Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
90.7%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the LOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
89.7%
Anthony Colandrea run for 12 yds to the LOU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
89.7%
Kobe Pace run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 8Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.7%
Malik Washington pass incomplete to Grant MischSimilar
Q3 4:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
89.6%
Anthony Colandrea run for 7 yds to the LOU 1Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.0%
Jack Griese run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-28
71.9%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted for a TD Kamren Robinson return for 28 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2572% → 68%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
71.8%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 22Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
71.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Isaac GuerendoSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-6
69.4%
Jack Plummer sacked by Paul Akere for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 16Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
68.0%
Brady Hodges punColandrea, Anthony pass incomplete to Wood Jr., Sackett, PENALTY VIRGINIA holding 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE49, NO PLAY.t for 45 yds, downed at the UVA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:3635% → 59%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
64.9%
Anthony Colandrea run for 19 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
62.7%
Colandrea, Anthony pass incomplete to Washington, Malik, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA.Similar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
60.9%
Jones, Perris rush for 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE27, PENALTY VIRGINIA holding 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+3
63.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 3 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 17
OPP 39
-10
63.4%
Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 27
OPP 49
+42
41.5%
Malik Washington 42 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Will Bettridge Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:2047% → 51%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
47.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 35Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
45.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 27
OPP 37
-15
38.0%
Plummer, Jack pass incomplete to Thrash, Jamari, PENALTY VIRGINIA pass interference 15 yards to the VIRGINIA48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
48.6%
Jack Plummer run for 6 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
47.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+8
45.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
47.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 13 yds to the UVA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
46.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the UVA 18Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
46.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
43.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Kevin ColemanSimilar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
51.4%
Brock Travelstead 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:0757% → 74%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
43.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 48 yds to the LOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
35.5%
Mike Hollins run for 6 yds to the LOU 21Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
35.0%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the LOU 19Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
35.4%
Anthony Colandrea run for 4 yds to the LOU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
32.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jack GrieseSimilar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
32.8%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the LOU 14Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-7
34.0%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Ashton Gillotte and Jared Dawson for a loss of 7 yards to the LOU 21Similar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 16
OPP 21
+38
26.5%
Will Bettridge 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:2032% → 70%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
32.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 9 yds to the LOU 23Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+4
32.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the LOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
30.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 21 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
69.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 52 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2542% → 41%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
58.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 14 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
55.8%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-8
53.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 7 yds to the UVA 45 Virginia Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the UVA 30Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+6
57.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 6 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
57.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Kobe PaceSimilar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+7
59.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 44 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 7 yds to the LOU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:0175% → 95%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
75.2%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 8Similar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
94.7%
Isaac Guerendo 73 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:028% → 10%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.8%
Kobe Pace run for 9 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
90.0%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
89.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
89.1%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
89.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
90.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:5796% → 97%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 44Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+5
96.4%
Virginia Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LOU 49Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-1
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:20
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 52 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+39.8
TD · Q3 0:49
Malik Washington 42 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Will Bettridge Kick)
-21.9
TD · Q4 3:24
Isaac Guerendo 73 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick)
+19.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com