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FSU

Florida State 24 at Pittsburgh 7

PITT
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:39 · Caleb Junko punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FSU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior−25.2Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:38: Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 9 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +5.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:10: Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:10: Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the PITT 9 — FSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:26: Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 22 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:11: Trey Benson run for 55 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:54PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:46FSU 4th & 2 at PITT 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:09PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:40FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:13PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:52FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:53FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:20PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:26FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:06PITT 4th & 17 at PITT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:30FSU 4th & 12 at PITT 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:43PITT 4th & 27 at PITT 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−3.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:28FSU 4th & 24 at FSU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−3.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:39PITT 4th & 19 at FSU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:50PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:55PITT 4th & 1 at FSU 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−2.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:25FSU 4th & 23 at PITT 49, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:28PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 35, down 17
    Close callPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:33FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 8:38PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:10FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:26FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:11FSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:1593% → 93%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
6.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 15 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
6.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
7.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 6 yds to the PITT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
7.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the PITT 46 Lawrance Toafili fumbled, forced by David Green, recovered by PITT Bangally Kamara Toafili, Lawrance rush for 3 yards to the PITTSBURGH46, fumble forced by Green, David, fumble by Toafili, Lawrance recovered by PITTSBURGH Kamara, Bangally at PITTSBURGH46.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:217% → 8%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
7.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for no gain to the PITT 46Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
7.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for no gain to the PITT 46Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
7.6%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
7.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 53 yds, downed at the FSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 92 yds · 5:5992% → 90%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
7.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 5 yds to the FSU 6Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+5
7.9%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the FSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
8.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 13 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
8.3%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
8.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+9
8.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Darion Williamson for 9 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
8.8%
Rodney Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 36Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+48
9.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Rodney Hill for 48 yds to the PITT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
9.0%
Rodney Hill run for no gain to the PITT 16Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
9.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 7 yds to the PITT 9Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
9.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the PITT 8Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+1
9.9%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the PITT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1310% → 11%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+16
10.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 16 yds to the PITT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
10.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for no gain to the PITT 23Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
10.7%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
10.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
10.5%
Caleb Junko punt for 55 yds, downed at the FSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:1289% → 88%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
10.9%
Trey Benson run for 15 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
11.0%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
11.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Destyn HillSimilar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
11.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Destyn HillSimilar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
11.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0712% → 12%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
11.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 23 Rodney Hammond Jr. fumbled, forced by Kalen DeLoach, recovered by PITT Rodney Hammond Jr. Hammond Jr., Rodney rush for 3 yards to the PITTSBURGH23, fumble forced by DeLoach, Kalen, fumble by Hammond Jr., Rodney recovered by PITTSBURGH Hammond Jr., Rodney at PITTSBURGH23.Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
12.2%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
11.9%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PITT 18Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
12.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
12.0%
Caleb Junko punt for 48 yds, downed at the FSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1088% → 87%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
12.0%
Trey Benson run for 6 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
11.8%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FSU 43Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-1
12.2%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 42Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
12.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the PITT 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:1513% → 13%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
13.3%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+82
13.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 82 yds Konata Mumpfield fumbled, forced by Fentrell Cypress II, recovered by FSU Fentrell Cypress II Veilleux, Christian pass complete to Mumpfield, Konata for 82 yards to the FLORIDAST0, fumble forced by Cypress II, Fentrell, fumble by Mumpfield, Konata recovered by FLORIDAST Cypress II, Fentrell at FLORIDAST0, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3487% → 86%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
13.0%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the FSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
13.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 30Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+9
13.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 9 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
13.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
14.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the PITT 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2815% → 15%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
14.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+17
14.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 17 yds to the PITT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
15.2%
Daniel Carter run for 6 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
16.2%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
15.8%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
15.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ja'Khi Douglas at the FSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4585% → 84%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
14.9%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FSU 20Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
15.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Destyn HillSimilar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
15.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Destyn HillSimilar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
16.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the PITT 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:3617% → 24%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
16.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+11
17.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 11 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+39
18.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 29 yds to the FSU 19 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Patrick Payton) to the FSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
24.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 9 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1978% → 83%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.2%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
22.8%
Trey Benson run for 6 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
23.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 4 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
23.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
50
0
23.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
50
+7
24.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 7 yds to the PITT 43Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+37
23.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 37 yds to the PITT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
23.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the PITT 1Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the PITT 1Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.6%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 1:5321% → 21%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the PITT 27Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
21.1%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (C'Bo Flemister) to the PITT 22Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
20.9%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+24
20.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 9 yds to the PITT 31 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Roughing Passer (Patrick Payton) to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
23.4%
Flemister, C'Bo rush for loss of 1 yard to the PITTSBURGH45, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding (Taylor, Branson) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 20
OWN 36
-5
21.7%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (C'Bo Flemister) to the PITT 31Similar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+8
21.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 8 yds to the PITT 39Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 17
OWN 39
0
22.3%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 17
OWN 39
0
21.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Daejon ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
20.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 1:3080% → 83%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaheim BellSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
20.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+63
20.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 63 yds to the PITT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
17.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the PITT 9Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
17.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-5
18.4%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (Kyle Morlock) to the PITT 14Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 12
OPP 14
0
18.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+32
17.5%
Ryan Fitzgerald 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16END OF HALF
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:2119% → 18%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
18.6%
Daniel Carter run for 20 yds to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
19.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 7 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
19.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 4 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
19.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
19.6%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Offensive Holding (Branson Taylor) to the PITT 46Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 20
OWN 46
0
17.9%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:5720% → 19%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
20.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 16 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
22.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-11
22.3%
Christian Veilleux sacked by Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 11 yards to the PITT 40Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 21
OWN 40
-6
20.1%
Christian Veilleux sacked by Braden Fiske for a loss of 6 yards to the PITT 34Similar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 27
OWN 34
-2
19.4%
Caleb Junko punt for 43 yds , Ja'Khi Douglas returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 21 Ja'Khi Douglas fumbled, recovered by FSUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:5480% → 77%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
20.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 20Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
21.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-5
22.0%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (Casey Roddick) to the FSU 15Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 16
OWN 15
-8
22.2%
Jordan Travis sacked by Shayne Simon for a loss of 8 yards to the FSU 7Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 24
OWN 7
0
23.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 39 yds, downed at the FSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:4125% → 23%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
24.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 8 yds to the FSU 38Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+6
25.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
26.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
27.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 2 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
26.7%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 4
OPP 26
-15
24.9%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Gavin Bartholomew) to the FSU 41Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 19
OPP 41
0
22.5%
Caleb Junko punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:0378% → 88%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
22.3%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 17Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+18
23.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 18 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
22.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
22.8%
Rodney Hill run for no gain to the FSU 35Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+13
24.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 13 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
21.8%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 49Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+19
22.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 19 yds to the PITT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
20.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
20.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the PITT 26Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+4
22.1%
Travis, Jordan pass incomplete to Toafili, Lawrance, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (George, Brandon) 4 yards to the PITTSBURGH22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
21.0%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the PITT 22Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
11.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 22 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1013% → 13%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
13.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 13 yds to the PITT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
14.3%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
14.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 39Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
13.7%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
12.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ja'Khi Douglas at the FSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:2986% → 95%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
14.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 30 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
4.9%
Trey Benson run for 55 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23INT
13 plays · 36 yds · 4:577% → 5%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
7.4%
Florida State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the PITT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
7.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 7 yds to the PITT 42Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
7.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
7.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 11 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
6.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the FSU 43Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
6.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the FSU 43Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+8
6.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 8 yds to the FSU 35Similar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
5.8%
Phil Jurkovec run for 1 yd to the FSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
5.7%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (Blake Zubovic) to the FSU 39Similar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-5
5.3%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (Blake Zubovic) to the FSU 44Similar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 20
OPP 44
-2
5.1%
Christian Veilleux pass intercepted Conrad Hussey return for 2 yds to the FSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:3696% → 96%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
4.1%
Rodney Hill run for 9 yds to the FSU 35Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+29
3.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Destyn Hill for 29 yds to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
3.5%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the PITT 32Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-17
3.4%
Jordan Travis sacked by Nate Temple for a loss of 17 yards to the PITT 49Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 23
OPP 49
0
3.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 23
OPP 49
0
3.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:394% → 4%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
3.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 13 yds to the PITT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
4.0%
Christian Veilleux sacked by Ashlynd Barker for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 18Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+10
3.9%
Veilleux, Christian pass incomplete to Reynolds, Daejon, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Thomas, Azareye'h) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
4.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
3.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 7 yds to the PITT 35Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
4.2%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Karter JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
3.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ja'Khi Douglas at the FSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4197% → 97%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
3.2%
Rodney Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 27Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-1
3.1%
Rodney Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 26Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 13
OWN 26
-1
3.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Rodney Hill for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 25Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 52 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the PITT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27FUMBLE
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:183% → 3%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
2.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+20
2.6%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 20 yds Bub Means fumbled, forced by Conrad Hussey, recovered by FSU Shyheim Brown Veilleux, Christian pass complete to Means, Bub for 20 yards to the PITTSBURGH48, fumble forced by Hussey, Conrad, fumble by Means, Bub recovered by FLORIDAST Brown, Shyheim at PITTSBURGH48.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:5898% → 99%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
2.0%
Caziah Holmes run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 49Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+6
2.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 6 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+15
2.0%
Rodemaker, Tate pass incomplete to Jacobs, Vandrevius, PENALTY PITTSBURGH personal foul (Hall, Stephon) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
1.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 21 yds to the PITT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
1.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 3 yds to the PITT 6Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
1.4%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the PITT 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:26
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 22 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q3 1:11
Trey Benson run for 55 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q2 4:10
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com