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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreUVA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:28 · Daniel Sparks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MIA 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 10:44: Ajay Allen run for 26 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +12.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:22: Mike Hollins run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +24.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 4:20: Will Bettridge 32 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +20.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 1:23: Andres Borregales 48 Yd Field Goal — MIA win probability +20.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Mark Fletcher Jr. 11 Yd Run — MIA win probability +22.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 7UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 13:09MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snapGo for it88.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.2%average punt
- Q1 0:08UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 43, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snapGo for it19.7%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.1%average punt
- Q2 13:21MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 28, down 7Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snapGo for it78.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 11:46UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 29, up 7Close callPunted · 22.3% before the snapGo for it22.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 10:16MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 29, down 7Close callPunted · 75.9% before the snapGo for it76.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.8%−0.8average punt
- Q2 8:46UVA 4th & 4 at MIA 5, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snapGo for it26.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call25.8%−0.392% to makePunt22.3%−3.8average punt
- Q2 4:03MIA 4th & 3 at UVA 29, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snapGo for it66.9%52% to convertField goalTheir call66.2%−0.758% to makePunt62.8%−4.1average punt
- Q3 14:13UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snapGo for it36.0%−1.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.4%average punt
- Q3 3:58UVA 4th & 6 at MIA 6, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snapGo for it17.7%−0.331% to convertField goalTheir call18.0%91% to makePunt9.5%−8.5average punt
- Q4 12:59MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 29, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 54.5% before the snapGo for it56.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.4%−1.9average punt
- Q4 11:28UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 19, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snapGo for it41.5%−6.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.0%average punt
- Q4 9:26MIA 4th & 2 at UVA 32, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snapGo for it51.5%57% to convertField goalTheir call49.1%−2.451% to makePunt44.6%−6.9average punt
- Q4 7:01UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt43.4%−2.0average punt
- Q4 4:20UVA 4th & 2 at MIA 15, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snapGo for it48.3%56% to convertField goalTheir call44.3%−4.083% to makePunt19.8%−28.5average punt
- Q4 1:23MIA 4th & 9 at UVA 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snapGo for it24.3%−10.732% to convertField goalTheir call35.0%56% to makePunt16.2%−18.8average punt
- Q4 0:35UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it38.2%−7.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:32UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.1%97% to makeGo for two14.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:44MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.7%97% to makeGo for two71.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:37MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.7%97% to makeGo for two82.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:22UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.9%97% to makeGo for two41.6%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIADrive 1PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4692% → 92%
Q1 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+8
92.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:268% → 11%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.9%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
91.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the UVA 45Similar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
91.3%
(11:13) MUSKETT, Tony pass to the right incomplete intended for FIELDS, Malachi broken up by DAVIS, Jaden at the MIA40, clock 11:09. PENALTY MIA Roughing the Passer on BAIN JR., Rueben enforced 15 yards from the MIA48 to the MIA33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
91.2%
Tony Muskett sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 36Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+15
91.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 15 yds to the MIA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3INT6 plays · 25 yds · 3:0790% → 89%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
88.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted by Sam Westfall, at the UVA 10, returned for 0 yards to the UVA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 5:1012% → 15%
MIADrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3885% → 83%
Q2 13:48
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-4
83.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 28 fumbled, recovered by MIA Mark Fletcher Jr. (13:48) [SG] FLETCHER JR., Mark rush to the right for a loss of 4 yards, FLETCHER JR., Mark fumbled at MIA25 , recovered by MIA FLETCHER JR., Mark at the MIA25, returned 3 yards to the MIA28 (JACKSON, James;KYLE, Tayvonn), clock 13:27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2817% → 17%
MIADrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2582% → 81%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
82.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 3 yds to the MIA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8FG5 plays · 70 yds · 1:2219% → 22%
MIADrive 9FG9 plays · 43 yds · 4:3377% → 76%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
77.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 25 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+9
76.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 9 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
76.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+6
73.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 6 yds to the UVA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10END OF HALF11 plays · 9 yds · 4:0126% → 33%
Q2 3:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
73.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 5 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
69.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 7 yds to the UVA 44Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
66.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the UVA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-2
67.2%
Tony Muskett sacked by Branson Deen for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 44Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 15
OWN 44
-10
67.5%
Tony Muskett sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. and Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 10 yards to the UVA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4733% → 32%
MIADrive 12TD7 plays · 64 yds · 3:2069% → 81%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
69.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Ajay Allen for 6 yds to the MIA 42Similar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
69.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 9 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
68.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Cam McCormick for 11 yds to the UVA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-29
86.0%
Kamren Kinchens 29 Yd Interception Return (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14FG16 plays · 69 yds · 6:3914% → 19%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 10 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
85.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 10 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
84.5%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the MIA 35Similar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
83.3%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds to the MIA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
82.4%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Joshua Rawlings for 1 yd to the MIA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3884% → 82%
UVADrive 16TD6 plays · 49 yds · 2:3921% → 47%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
78.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 8 yds to the MIA 41Similar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
76.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 5 yds to the MIA 17Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+6
77.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Perris Jones for 6 yds to the MIA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1862% → 59%
UVADrive 18PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2344% → 45%
MIADrive 19FG5 plays · 27 yds · 1:5661% → 70%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
60.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 19 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
61.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 4 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+4
58.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Cam McCormick for 4 yds to the UVA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20FG12 plays · 60 yds · 5:0638% → 69%
MIADrive 21FG9 plays · 42 yds · 2:4944% → 62%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
43.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 12 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
42.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 3 yds to the MIA 42Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+8
37.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
50
+19
40.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 19 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
45.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 2 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-1
41.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:4847% → 47%
MIADrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -4 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24FG2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0088% → 91%
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+68.3
TD · Q3 0:22
Mike Hollins run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
-24.4
TD · OT 0:00
Mark Fletcher Jr. 11 Yd Run
+22.6