2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreDUKE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:25 · Brady Hodges punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:13: Jawhar Jordan run for 14 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +3.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:01: Jawhar Jordan run for 23 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +5.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:49: Brock Travelstead 47 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +4.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Charlie Ham kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — DUKE win probability +2.3 pts (now 18%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:32: Brock Travelstead 20 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +3.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:32DUKE 4th & 21 at DUKE 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.7%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.9%average punt
- Q1 8:07LOU 4th & 1 at DUKE 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.9%71% to convertField goal63.6%−0.381% to makePunt62.7%−1.2average punt
- Q1 4:10DUKE 4th & 1 at LOU 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.5%70% to convertField goal32.6%−0.925% to makePunt32.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 14:46DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snapGo for it26.9%−0.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.5%average punt
- Q2 10:25LOU 4th & 6 at DUKE 48, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snapGo for it76.5%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.6%average punt
- Q2 4:38DUKE 4th & 9 at LOU 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snapGo for it21.5%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.7%average punt
- Q2 0:49LOU 4th & 7 at DUKE 30, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snapGo for it81.4%−0.537% to convertField goalTheir call81.9%56% to makePunt80.1%−1.8average punt
- Q2 0:09DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it13.8%−1.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.1%average punt
- Q3 7:32LOU 4th & 3 at DUKE 3, up 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snapGo for it91.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call90.9%−1.193% to makePunt84.9%−7.0average punt
- Q3 3:24LOU 4th & 2 at DUKE 7, up 20Close callKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snapGo for it96.0%53% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%−0.791% to makePunt92.0%−4.0average punt
- Q3 1:18DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 32, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q4 12:47LOU 4th & 2 at DUKE 48, up 23Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:15DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 16, down 23Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:03LOU 4th & 18 at LOU 41, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q4 5:45DUKE 4th & 20 at DUKE 46, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.110% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 4:02LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 7, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q4 2:39DUKE 4th & 10 at LOU 33, down 23Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.6%49% to makePunt0.6%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 7:13LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.9%97% to makeGo for two65.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:01LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.4%97% to makeGo for two72.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDUKEDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 3 yds · 2:2343% → 42%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
57.2%
Riley Leonard sacked by Jared Dawson for a loss of 8 yards to the DUKE 31Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 18
OWN 31
-3
57.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 28Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 21
OWN 28
+7
57.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 51 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 7 yds to the LOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD10 plays · 72 yds · 5:1257% → 61%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
57.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 6 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+8
57.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
58.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 7 yds to the DUKE 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3DOWNS7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5440% → 39%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 9 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
60.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+9
60.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 9 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-6
61.1%
Riley Leonard sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 6 yards to the DUKE 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD6 plays · 49 yds · 3:0163% → 70%
Q1 3:20
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-8
63.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the DUKE 40 Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Gonzalez) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 11
50
+19
63.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Josh Lifson for 19 yds to the DUKE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
63.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 8 yds to the DUKE 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0533% → 32%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
67.2%
Riley Leonard sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 32 yds · 4:1470% → 73%
DUKEDrive 7PUNT11 plays · 44 yds · 5:4128% → 25%
Q2 7:37
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+19
73.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 19 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-15
73.3%
Leonard, Riley rush for 3 yards to the LOUISVILLE45, PENALTY DUKE personal foul (Pickett, Justin) 15 yards to the DUKE37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
75.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8FG9 plays · 59 yds · 3:4276% → 84%
DUKEDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3218% → 17%
LOUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11FG15 plays · 72 yds · 7:2684% → 95%
Q3 13:52
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
84.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 9 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
84.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-8
90.6%
Jack Plummer sacked by Ryan Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the DUKE 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12INT8 plays · -2 yds · 1:375% → 5%
Q3 6:42
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
94.9%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Hagans, Sahmir, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Brownlee Jr., Jarvis) 10 yards to the DUKE31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
94.6%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the DUKE 33 Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Scott Elliott) to the DUKE 23Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 18
OWN 23
-4
95.2%
Riley Leonard pass intercepted Gilbert Frierson return for 4 yds to the DUKE 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13FG5 plays · 8 yds · 2:2596% → 97%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
95.8%
Jordan, Jawhar rush for 4 yards to the DUKE11, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Lumia, Vincent) 10 yards to the DUKE25, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 2:003% → 2%
Q3 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-5
97.3%
Riley Leonard sacked by Jermayne Lole for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 32 Riley Leonard fumbled, forced by Jermayne Lole, recovered by DUKE Riley Leonard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
97.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 32 yds · 3:2498% → 98%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the LOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:252% → 1%
Q4 11:41
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+12
98.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the DUKE 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 2:0799% → 99%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
99.1%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 45 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by LOUISVILLE Plummer, Jack at LOUISVILLE45.Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 14
OWN 45
-5
99.0%
Jack Plummer sacked by Terry Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 40Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 18
OWN 41
+6
99.1%
Brady Hodges punt for 48 yds , Jalon Calhoun returns for 6 yds to the DUKE 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 2:131% → 1%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
98.8%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Moore, Jordan, PENALTY DUKE holding (Hornibrook, Jake) 8 yards to the DUKE9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+47
98.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 47 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-10
99.1%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Robertson, Jontavis, PENALTY DUKE holding (Parker II, Brian) 10 yards to the DUKE46, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 4:02
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
99.7%
Brock Travelstead punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the LOU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20DOWNS6 plays · 10 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+15
99.3%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 15 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 3 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-15
99.2%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jeremiah Hasley Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (Maurice McIntyre) to the LOU 45Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+12
99.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds to the LOU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21END OF GAME4 plays · 11 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:01
Jawhar Jordan run for 23 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+5.8
FG · Q2 0:49
Brock Travelstead 47 yd FG GOOD
+4.1
FG · Q3 7:32
Brock Travelstead 20 yd FG GOOD
+3.7