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DUKE

Duke 0 at Louisville 23

LOU
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:07 · Jack Plummer run for 2 yds to the DUKE 14 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense+0.4Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Pregame prior+6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:13: Jawhar Jordan run for 14 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +3.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:01: Jawhar Jordan run for 23 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +5.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:49: Brock Travelstead 47 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +4.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Charlie Ham kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — DUKE win probability +2.3 pts (now 18%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 7:32: Brock Travelstead 20 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +3.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:32DUKE 4th & 21 at DUKE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:07LOU 4th & 1 at DUKE 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:10DUKE 4th & 1 at LOU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−0.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:46DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:25LOU 4th & 6 at DUKE 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:38DUKE 4th & 9 at LOU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:49LOU 4th & 7 at DUKE 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:09DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:32LOU 4th & 3 at DUKE 3, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:24LOU 4th & 2 at DUKE 7, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:18DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 32, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:47LOU 4th & 2 at DUKE 48, up 23
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:15DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 16, down 23
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:03LOU 4th & 18 at LOU 41, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:45DUKE 4th & 20 at DUKE 46, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:02LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 7, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:39DUKE 4th & 10 at LOU 33, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:13LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:01LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:2343% → 42%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.2%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
57.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
57.3%
Riley Leonard run for 12 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
57.2%
Riley Leonard sacked by Jared Dawson for a loss of 8 yards to the DUKE 31Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 18
OWN 31
0
57.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 18
OWN 31
-3
57.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 28Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 21
OWN 28
+7
57.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 51 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 7 yds to the LOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 5:1257% → 61%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
57.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+5
57.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
57.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 6 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+8
57.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
58.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 19 yds to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
58.2%
Kevin Coleman run for 1 yd to the DUKE 24Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
58.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 7 yds to the DUKE 17Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
58.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the DUKE 16Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
57.9%
Jack Plummer run for 2 yds to the DUKE 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
61.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 14 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5440% → 39%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 9 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
60.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
60.1%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 45Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+9
60.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 9 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
60.4%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the LOU 45Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-6
61.1%
Riley Leonard sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 6 yards to the DUKE 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 3:0163% → 70%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
62.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the DUKE 42Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-8
63.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the DUKE 40 Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Gonzalez) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 11
50
+19
63.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Josh Lifson for 19 yds to the DUKE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
63.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the DUKE 31Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
63.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 8 yds to the DUKE 23Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+23
69.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 23 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0533% → 32%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
67.2%
Riley Leonard sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 31Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+7
68.0%
Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
67.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
68.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:1470% → 73%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.1%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the LOU 20Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
70.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 11 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
71.1%
Maurice Turner run for 7 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
72.3%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the LOU 38Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+10
72.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 10 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
73.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
74.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
73.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
72.9%
Brady Hodges punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:4128% → 25%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
71.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the DUKE 12Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+12
72.0%
Riley Leonard run for 12 yds to the DUKE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
72.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
72.3%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+19
73.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 19 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
72.4%
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the LOU 43Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-5
72.4%
Duke Penalty, False Start (Brian Parker II) to the LOU 48Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-15
73.3%
Leonard, Riley rush for 3 yards to the LOUISVILLE45, PENALTY DUKE personal foul (Pickett, Justin) 15 yards to the DUKE37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 24
OWN 37
0
74.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 24
OWN 37
+15
75.1%
Jordan Waters run for 15 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
75.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:4276% → 84%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
76.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 11 yds to the LOU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
76.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the LOU 23Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+11
77.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 11 yds to the LOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
78.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 13 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
79.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 20 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
80.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
81.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jawhar JordanSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
80.3%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
84.4%
Brock Travelstead 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3218% → 17%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
82.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-3
83.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 49 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
84.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 7:2684% → 95%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
83.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 10 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
84.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 40Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
84.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 9 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
84.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+6
85.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
86.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+8
87.2%
Jack Plummer run for 8 yds to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
89.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the DUKE 18Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+11
89.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 11 yds to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
89.9%
Maurice Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 10Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-8
90.6%
Jack Plummer sacked by Ryan Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the DUKE 18Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 0
OPP 18
+15
90.8%
Maurice Turner run for 15 yds to the DUKE 3Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
94.6%
Brock Travelstead 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12INT
8 plays · -2 yds · 1:375% → 5%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.6%
Duke Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the DUKE 20Similar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
94.7%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 21Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
94.9%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Hagans, Sahmir, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Brownlee Jr., Jarvis) 10 yards to the DUKE31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
94.6%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the DUKE 33 Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Scott Elliott) to the DUKE 23Similar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 18
OWN 23
0
95.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 18
OWN 23
0
95.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 18
OWN 23
-4
95.2%
Riley Leonard pass intercepted Gilbert Frierson return for 4 yds to the DUKE 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:2596% → 97%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
95.8%
Jordan, Jawhar rush for 4 yards to the DUKE11, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Lumia, Vincent) 10 yards to the DUKE25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+5
95.9%
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for 5 yds to the DUKE 20Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+9
95.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the DUKE 11Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+4
95.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the DUKE 7Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+24
97.0%
Brock Travelstead 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:003% → 2%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.7%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 37Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-5
97.3%
Riley Leonard sacked by Jermayne Lole for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 32 Riley Leonard fumbled, forced by Jermayne Lole, recovered by DUKE Riley Leonard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
97.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 3:2498% → 98%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+16
97.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 16 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
98.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the LOU 47Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
98.3%
Jack Plummer run for no gain to the LOU 47Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+5
98.4%
Jack Plummer run for 5 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
98.4%
Brady Hodges punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DUKE 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:252% → 1%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
98.5%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the DUKE 8Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-4
98.6%
Duke Penalty, False Start (Scott Elliott) to the DUKE 4Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+12
98.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the DUKE 16Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 16
0
98.7%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the DUKE 16Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
98.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 2:0799% → 99%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
99.1%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 45 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by LOUISVILLE Plummer, Jack at LOUISVILLE45.Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 14
OWN 45
-5
99.0%
Jack Plummer sacked by Terry Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 40Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+1
99.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the LOU 41Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 18
OWN 41
+6
99.1%
Brady Hodges punt for 48 yds , Jalon Calhoun returns for 6 yds to the DUKE 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:131% → 1%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
98.8%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Moore, Jordan, PENALTY DUKE holding (Hornibrook, Jake) 8 yards to the DUKE9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 18
OWN 9
0
98.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+47
98.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 47 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
98.8%
Duke Penalty, False Start (Scott Elliott) to the LOU 49Similar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+5
99.0%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
99.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-10
99.1%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Robertson, Jontavis, PENALTY DUKE holding (Parker II, Brian) 10 yards to the DUKE46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 20
OWN 46
0
99.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 20
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 52 yds, downed at the LOU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
99.7%
Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the LOU 4Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
99.7%
Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the LOU 6Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+1
99.7%
Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the LOU 7Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
99.7%
Brock Travelstead punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the LOU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
99.3%
Duke Penalty, False Start (Jontavis Robertson) to the LOU 48Similar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+15
99.3%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 15 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 3 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-15
99.2%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jeremiah Hasley Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (Maurice McIntyre) to the LOU 45Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+12
99.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds to the LOU 33Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
99.4%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
99.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 8 yds to the LOU 41Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+3
99.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the LOU 45Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:01
Jawhar Jordan run for 23 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+5.8
FG · Q2 0:49
Brock Travelstead 47 yd FG GOOD
+4.1
FG · Q3 7:32
Brock Travelstead 20 yd FG GOOD
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com