2023 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2023 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:33 · Bryce Duke run for 11 yds to the SYR 38 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 1:57: John Love 32 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +4.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:13: Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 62 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +9.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:34: Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +5.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- SAFETY · Q3 12:57: Team Safety — VT win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:41: Dan Villari 6 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick) — SYR win probability +5.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SYR made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 14:01SYR 4th & 21 at SYR 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snapGo for it41.5%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.7%average punt
- Q1 11:22VT 4th & 5 at SYR 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.6% before the snapGo for it58.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call58.6%64% to makePunt58.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:18SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snapGo for it40.7%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.9%average punt
- Q1 4:48SYR 4th & 3 at SYR 31, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snapGo for it37.9%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.0%average punt
- Q1 1:57VT 4th & 9 at SYR 14, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snapGo for it63.0%−0.729% to convertField goalTheir call63.7%84% to makePunt59.2%−4.5average punt
- Q1 0:42SYR 4th & 14 at SYR 21, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snapGo for it31.0%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.9%average punt
- Q2 11:34VT 4th & 16 at SYR 22, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snapGo for it70.6%−2.015% to convertField goalTheir call72.6%72% to makePunt67.0%−5.6average punt
- Q2 9:47SYR 4th & 13 at SYR 44, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snapGo for it24.5%−1.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.9%average punt
- Q2 4:18SYR 4th & 7 at VT 25, down 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.2%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call12.3%66% to makePunt10.3%−2.0average punt
- Q2 0:52SYR 4th & 16 at SYR 19, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it0.8%−2.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q2 0:15VT 4th & 13 at VT 22, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it95.4%−1.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.1%average punt
- Q3 13:35VT 4th & 2 at VT 48, up 27Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.1%−0.7average punt
- Q3 11:14VT 4th & 11 at VT 45, up 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q3 0:08VT 4th & 6 at SYR 7, up 22Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call97.7%91% to makePunt95.6%−2.1average punt
- Q4 13:47SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 25, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q4 7:47VT 4th & 6 at SYR 13, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.5%85% to makePunt98.8%−0.7average punt
- Q4 5:58SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SYR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:00VT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.2%97% to makeGo for two62.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:13VT Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.0%97% to makeGo for two86.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:34VT Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:41SYR Touchdown, down 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.9%97% to makeGo for two5.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:5941% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
59.1%
Syracuse Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Garrett Shrader) to the SYR 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 14
-7
59.1%
ALLEN, LeQuint rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the SU21 (TISDALE, Alan;LAWSON, Keli). PENALTY SU Holding on BLEICH, Christopher enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the SU14 to the SU7 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2FG7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2859% → 60%
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
59.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 2 yds to the SYR 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4940% → 40%
VTDrive 4TD10 plays · 68 yds · 4:1660% → 64%
SYRDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0738% → 37%
Q1 5:28
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+3
62.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 3 yds to the SYR 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6FG6 plays · 15 yds · 2:3465% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1532% → 31%
Q1 1:26
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-3
68.5%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Josh Fuga and C.J. McCray for a loss of 3 yards to the SYR 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8FG11 plays · 53 yds · 3:5671% → 75%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
70.9%
DRONES, Kyron pass to the right incomplete intended for GREENE, Ayden thrown to the VT25. PENALTY SU Offsides on WAX, Marlowe enforced 5 yards from the VT36 to the VT41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
71.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 5 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-10
72.1%
QB Keeper DRONES, Kyron rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the SU15 (SIMMONS JR., Jason;SIMMONS, Chase). PENALTY VT Holding on GARRETT, Johnny enforced 10 yards from the SU16 to the SU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+7
71.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the SYR 19Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 13
OPP 19
-3
73.7%
Kyron Drones sacked by Marlowe Wax for a loss of 3 yards to the SYR 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4728% → 25%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
72.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 22 yds to the SYR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-9
72.2%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland for a loss of 9 yards to the SYR 44Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
74.9%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD6 plays · 93 yds · 2:2776% → 88%
SYRDrive 11FG9 plays · 50 yds · 2:5514% → 13%
Q2 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+25
86.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 10 yds to the VT 38 for a 1ST down Virginia Tech Penalty, Targeting on PHILLIPS III, Mose enforced (Mose Phillips III) to the VT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+15
85.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 15 yds to the VT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+7
87.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Donovan Brown for 7 yds to the VT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4489% → 96%
Q2 3:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
89.5%
(03:34) DRONES, Kyron pass deep to the left incomplete intended for FELTON, Da'Quan thrown to the SU42, clock 03:28. PENALTY SU Offsides on CLARK, Alijah declined SU Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the VT45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+41
90.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 41 yds to the SYR 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:393% → 3%
VTDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 0:2497% → 97%
SYRDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4198% → 95%
Q3 13:41
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+4
98.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 4 yds to the VT 48Similar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
97.6%
Peter Moore punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Donovan Brown at the SYR 10Similar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
95.3%
(13:19) SHRADER, Garrett pass up the middle complete for 19 yards to ALFORD, Damien caught at the SU22 and advanced to the SU29 (LAWSON, Keli;JONES, Jaylen), clock 13:07. PENALTY SU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CRUZ, Enrique enforced 5 yards from the SU10 to the SU5 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17SF1 play · -10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3598% → 98%
Q3 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-6
98.4%
Kyron Drones sacked by Marlowe Wax for a loss of 6 yards to the VT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:211% → 6%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
98.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 18 yds to the SYR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
98.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 15 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+14
98.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Dan Villari for 14 yds to the VT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.8%
Dan Villari 6 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20FG12 plays · 68 yds · 7:3295% → 99%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+26
97.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 26 yds to the SYR 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
97.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for no gain to the SYR 11Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+1
97.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 1 yd to the SYR 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:211% → 1%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.8%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Keyshawn Burgos for a loss of 5 yards to the SYR 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
98.2%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Norell Pollard for a loss of 5 yards to the SYR 15Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+10
98.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Dan Villari for 10 yds to the SYR 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22FG10 plays · 52 yds · 5:4999% → 100%
SYRDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:480% → 0%
VTDrive 24END OF GAME8 plays · 35 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:13
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 62 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
+9
TD · Q2 1:34
Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q3 7:41
Dan Villari 6 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick)
-5.1