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PITT

Pittsburgh 17 at Wake Forest 21

WAKE
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:21 · Ivan Mora punt for 34 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 18 yds to the PITT 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Home team on offense−3.4Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Pregame prior−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:32: Demond Claiborne run for 18 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +16.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 3:02: Demond Claiborne run for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +43.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:30: Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 22 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +55.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:03: PENALTY Pitt UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McMillon,Donovan) Pitt UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McMillon,Donovan) 21 yard from Pitt28 to Pitt07. NO PLAY. — PITT win probability +23.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:07: Santino Marucci pass complete to Cameron Hite for 15 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +63.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 6:10WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:28PITT 4th & 16 at PITT 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:32WAKE 4th & 10 at PITT 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:04PITT 4th & 18 at PITT 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:21WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:25PITT 4th & 7 at WAKE 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:13WAKE 4th & 18 at PITT 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:46PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:09WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:07PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:09WAKE 4th & 11 at PITT 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:30PITT 4th & 1 at WAKE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−6.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−5.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:42WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:48PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:03PITT 4th & 3 at WAKE 23, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%−1.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−15.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:02WAKE 4th & 2 at PITT 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−3.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−6.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:05PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:40PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:20WAKE 4th & 1 at PITT 39, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%−0.3
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%
    36% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−12.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:12PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:32WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:02WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.8
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:30PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−4.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:07WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:4852% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
48.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the PITT 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
48.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 4 yds to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
48.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 11 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
48.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+6
48.3%
Christian Veilleux run for 6 yds to the WAKE 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
48.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 4 yds to the WAKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
48.3%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
48.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 3 yds to the WAKE 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-5
48.3%
PENALTY Pitt False Start 5 yards from Wake37 to Wake42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+37
48.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 31 yds to the WAKE 11 for a 1ST down Wake Forest Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Andersen) to the WAKE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
48.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the WAKE 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
48.3%
PENALTY Pitt False Start 5 yards from Wake01 to Wake06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
48.3%
Christian Veilleux run for 1 yd to the WAKE 7Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
46.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
Q1 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
46.1%
Sauls,Ben kick attempt good (H: Guess,Cam, LS: Floyd,Byron) PENALTY Pitt Illegal Formation 5 yards from Wake03 to Wake08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5847% → 46%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
46.9%
Justice Ellison run for 6 yds to the WAKE 26Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-10
47.1%
Wake Forest Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WAKE 17Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+9
46.9%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the WAKE 26Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
46.8%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WAKE 26Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+7
46.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 43 , M.J. Devonshire returns for 7 yds to the PITT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4254% → 54%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
45.6%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 2 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+1
45.9%
Christian Veilleux run for 1 yd to the PITT 42Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 11
OWN 42
-5
46.1%
PENALTY Pitt False Start (Taylor,Branson) 5 yards from Pitt42 to Pitt37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 16
OWN 37
0
46.4%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
46.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5647% → 46%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
47.4%
Santino Marucci pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
47.3%
Demond Claiborne run for no gain to the PITT 47Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
46.7%
Santino Marucci pass incomplete to Cameron HiteSimilar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
45.9%
Ivan Mora punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:2854% → 55%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
45.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 10 yds to the PITT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
45.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 20 yds to the PITT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
44.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 16 yds to the WAKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
44.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
44.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the WAKE 49Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+5
45.3%
Christian Veilleux run for 5 yds to the PITT 46Similar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 18
OWN 46
0
45.0%
Caleb Junko punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3945% → 44%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
44.8%
Justice Ellison run for 8 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
45.5%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WAKE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
45.1%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WAKE 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
45.1%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 2 yds to the WAKE 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+4
44.3%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 4 yds to the WAKE 36Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+18
43.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 34 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 18 yds to the PITT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:5658% → 58%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
42.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for no gain to the PITT 48Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
42.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 5 yds to the WAKE 47Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+8
42.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 8 yds to the WAKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
42.0%
Christian Veilleux run for 2 yds to the WAKE 41Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+7
42.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 7 yds to the WAKE 34Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+2
42.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the WAKE 36Similar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
41.7%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT
14 plays · 25 yds · 5:1243% → 41%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
43.4%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 33Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+2
42.7%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the WAKE 31Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
40.5%
Santino Marucci pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+10
40.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Marucci,Santino pass intercepted by Williams,Marquis at Wake48, End Of Play PENALTY Pitt Holding (Williams,Marquis) 10 yards from Wake31 to Wake41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
43.1%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the WAKE 43Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
43.1%
Santino Marucci run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 1
50
+4
43.8%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
44.2%
Justice Ellison run for 15 yds to the PITT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
45.2%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the PITT 31Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
45.1%
Santino Marucci pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+3
43.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 13
OPP 34
-5
41.0%
PENALTY Wake False Start (Jurgens,Michael) 5 yards from Pitt34 to Pitt39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 18
OPP 39
0
40.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:2760% → 60%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
40.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the PITT 5Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
40.7%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+10
41.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 10 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
39.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 4 yds to the PITT 19Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
39.7%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
40.3%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+9
40.2%
Caleb Junko punt for 45 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 9 yds to the WAKE 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:1442% → 59%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
42.4%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 22 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST down Pittsburgh Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Brandon George) to the PITT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
58.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 18 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3250% → 51%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
50.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 9 yds to the PITT 44Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
47.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
47.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 7 yds to the WAKE 46Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
46.9%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Daejon ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
47.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the WAKE 46Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 46
-5
49.1%
PENALTY Pitt Delay Of Game 5 yards from Wake46 to Pitt49. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5154% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.9%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WAKE 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
53.5%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WAKE 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+3
52.1%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WAKE 25Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
51.6%
Ivan Mora punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITT 25 , M.J. Devonshire returns for no gain to the PITT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0250% → 47%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
49.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
51.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 11 yds to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
49.2%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
49.8%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
51.1%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
52.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 23 yds , Nick Ragano returns for no gain to the WAKE 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:5856% → 54%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
56.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the WAKE 46Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+8
57.2%
Santino Marucci run for 8 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
57.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the PITT 44Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-5
57.8%
Santino Marucci sacked by A.J. Woods for a loss of 5 yards to the PITT 49Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+2
54.3%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 2 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
53.8%
Ivan Mora punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 39 yds · 2:3949% → 50%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
51.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
50
+7
47.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 7 yds to the WAKE 43Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
47.0%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the WAKE 45Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+4
48.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 4 yds to the WAKE 41Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
49.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for no gain to the WAKE 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4858% → 54%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
57.7%
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the WAKE 45Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
58.6%
Santino Marucci pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
57.0%
Santino Marucci pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
54.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 39 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the PITT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5449% → 46%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
51.1%
PENALTY Pitt False Start (Baer,Ryan) 5 yards from Pitt16 to Pitt11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 15
OWN 11
0
51.4%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+9
51.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 9 yds to the PITT 20Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
52.7%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
54.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 41 yds , Taylor Morin returns for no gain to the WAKE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:4655% → 57%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
54.9%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the WAKE 25Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+4
54.7%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the WAKE 29Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+8
53.8%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 8 yds to the WAKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
56.3%
Santino Marucci sacked by A.J. Woods for a loss of 2 yards to the WAKE 35Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+6
54.7%
Demond Claiborne run for 6 yds to the WAKE 41Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
56.7%
Santino Marucci pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:5950% → 60%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
50.3%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
51.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 5 yds to the PITT 39Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+31
49.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 31 yds to the WAKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
45.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 5 yds to the WAKE 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
44.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the WAKE 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
46.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the WAKE 23Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
40.3%
Ben Sauls 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:0145% → 43%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.1%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the WAKE 24Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
44.8%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the WAKE 26Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+33
43.0%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 33 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
50.8%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Taylor Morin for 4 yds to the PITT 37Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
50.9%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the PITT 33Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
50.3%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the PITT 33Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+1
42.8%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the PITT 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:5765% → 69%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
34.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 6 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+8
32.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 8 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
32.6%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Daniel Carter for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 6
50
+3
31.9%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the WAKE 47Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+1
32.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the WAKE 48Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 4
OPP 48
-5
35.1%
PENALTY Pitt False Start (Bartholomew,Gavin) 5 yards from Wake48 to Pitt47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
30.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 3:0338% → 88%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
38.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Marucci,Santino pass incomplete short right to Grimes,Wesley QB hurried by Okunlola,Samuel PENALTY Pitt Holding (Williams,Marquis) 10 yards from Wake11 to Wake21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
38.6%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the WAKE 26Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+2
39.4%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+18
37.7%
Demond Claiborne run for 18 yds to the WAKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
43.3%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Justice Ellison for 5 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
44.7%
Jahmal Banks run for 7 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
88.0%
Demond Claiborne run for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3225% → 89%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.6%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.9%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+24
76.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 24 yds to the PITT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
68.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 8 yds to the WAKE 43Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+8
67.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for 8 yds to the WAKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
66.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 13 yds to the WAKE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
10.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 22 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:2732% → 36%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.2%
Santino Marucci run for 2 yds to the WAKE 27Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
32.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Marucci,Santino pass incomplete short left to Morin,Taylor broken up by Woods,A.J. PENALTY Pitt Holding (Woods,A.J.) 10 yards from Wake27 to Wake37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
33.5%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 26 yds to the PITT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
35.7%
Santino Marucci pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 0:2388% → 91%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
12.4%
PENALTY Pitt UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McMillon,Donovan) Pitt UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McMillon,Donovan) 21 yard from Pitt28 to Pitt07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
14.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for no gain to the PITT 7Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
13.3%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+7
14.6%
Christian Veilleux run for 7 yds to the PITT 16Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
9.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the PITT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 0:3328% → 96%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
27.8%
Santino Marucci run for 1 yd to the PITT 49Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
25.2%
Santino Marucci pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+10
24.2%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 10 yds to the PITT 39Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+24
20.0%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 24 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
32.5%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
96.3%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Cameron Hite for 15 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:0619% → 18%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
81.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Daejon ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+41
81.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 41 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:07
Santino Marucci pass complete to Cameron Hite for 15 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+63.8
TD · Q4 1:30
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 22 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
-55.7
TD · Q4 3:02
Demond Claiborne run for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+43.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com