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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:06 · Emory Williams pass complete to Riley Williams for 1 yd to the CLEM 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:53: Jacolby George 0 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick) — MIA win probability +5.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:09: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 32 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK) — CLEM win probability +7.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:01: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 19 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK) — CLEM win probability +13.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:00: Emory Williams pass complete to Colbie Young for 11 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +24.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- FG · Q4 1:51: Andres Borregales 38 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +19.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 13:40CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snapGo for it61.4%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.5%average punt
- Q1 10:44MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snapGo for it39.3%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.5%average punt
- Q1 2:05CLEM 4th & 12 at MIA 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snapGo for it52.3%−0.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.9%average punt
- Q1 0:26MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 11, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snapGo for it46.9%−1.030% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.8%average punt
- Q2 11:24MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snapGo for it50.0%−0.826% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.7%average punt
- Q2 2:45MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snapGo for it44.1%−1.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%average punt
- Q3 12:49MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 47.9% before the snapGo for it49.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.6%−1.5average punt
- Q3 8:38CLEM 4th & 10 at MIA 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snapGo for it51.2%−1.728% to convertField goalTheir call52.9%70% to makePunt43.3%−9.7average punt
- Q3 6:05MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call44.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt41.5%−3.2average punt
- Q3 3:06MIA 4th & 2 at CLEM 37, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.2%57% to convertField goal41.6%−3.640% to makePunt41.3%−4.0average punt
- Q4 7:05CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 30, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snapGo for it64.9%−1.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.5%average punt
- Q4 1:51MIA 4th & 7 at CLEM 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snapGo for it25.6%−14.835% to convertField goalTheir call40.4%75% to makePunt12.8%−27.6average punt
- Q4 1:31CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it34.0%−10.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 3:53MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.6%97% to makeGo for two45.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:09CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.5%97% to makeGo for two52.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:01CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.3%97% to makeGo for two77.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:00MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call32.6%−0.597% to makeGo for two33.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1961% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4140% → 41%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
40.1%
Emory Williams pass complete to Brashard Smith for 12 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-15
40.8%
Miami Penalty, Block below the waist on LEE, Matthew enforced (-15 Yards) to the MIA 40Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+4
40.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Trotter Jr., recovered by MIA Xavier RestrepoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3FUMBLE13 plays · 84 yds · 6:3059% → 59%
Q1 10:15
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+4
40.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 4 yds to the CLEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+34
41.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 34 yds to the MIA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+10
41.1%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MIA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
40.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 1 yd to the MIA 3Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.4%
run for 2 yds Will Shipley fumbled, recovered by MIA James WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3954% → 52%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
46.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 11 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3048% → 48%
Q1 0:26
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
48.1%
Dylan Joyce punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 22 yds · 1:3753% → 52%
Q2 14:38
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+17
47.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 17 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0951% → 51%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
50.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Brashard Smith for 2 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
51.0%
(12:58) WILLIAMS, Emory pass short to the right incomplete intended for GEORGE, Jacolby thrown to the MIA35, clock 12:56. PENALTY CLE Pass Interference on WIGGINS, Nate enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the MIA36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
51.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Colbie Young for 10 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
52.6%
Emory Williams pass complete to Ajay Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9TD7 plays · 90 yds · 3:0648% → 57%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
51.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 8 yds to the CLEM 18Similar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
52.2%
Phil Mafah run for 2 yds to the CLEM 37 Phil Mafah fumbled, recovered by CLEM Phil MafahSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+33
52.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 33 yds to the MIA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+32
42.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 32 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 5:2447% → 46%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
46.6%
Clemson Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MIA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
47.0%
Emory Williams pass complete to Brashard Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 33Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-4
47.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 29Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+3
46.3%
Emory Williams pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 3 yds to the MIA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11INT10 plays · 7 yds · 3:5657% → 55%
Q2 2:45
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+14
44.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 14 yds to the CLEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.7%
Clemson Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Cade Klubnik) to the CLEM 35Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 24
OWN 35
+15
45.9%
KLUBNIK, Cade pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RANDALL, Adam broken up by BROWN, Davonte at the MIA40, clock 02:45. PENALTY MIA Pass Interference on BROWN, Davonte enforced 15 yards to the CLE50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12INT9 plays · 23 yds · 0:5849% → 51%
CLEMDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · -7 yds · 0:4754% → 53%
MIADrive 14PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1050% → 49%
Q3 13:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.3%
Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for 9 yds to the MIA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15FG8 plays · 58 yds · 4:0154% → 60%
Q3 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+10
46.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 10 yds to the CLEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+28
46.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 28 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
43.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 17 yds to the MIA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16DOWNS11 plays · 29 yds · 5:3143% → 43%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
43.2%
(08:37) CHANEY, JR., Donald rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the MIA44 (PHILLIPS, Jalyn), out of bounds, clock 08:31. PENALTY MIA Holding on MCCORMICK, Cam enforced 10 yards from the MIA35 to the MIA25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+11
42.4%
Emory Williams pass complete to Brashard Smith for 11 yds to the MIA 36Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-3
43.7%
Emory Williams pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 33Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+11
41.2%
Emory Williams pass complete to Colbie Young for 11 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
46.8%
(05:21) WILLIAMS, Emory pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GEORGE, Jacolby broken up by WIGGINS, Nate at the CLE10, clock 05:17. PENALTY MIA Holding on MAUIGOA, Francis enforced 10 yards from the CLE45 to the MIA45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+8
43.1%
Emory Williams pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 8 yds to the CLEM 37Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+1
43.0%
Emory Williams pass complete to Riley Williams for 1 yd to the CLEM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD3 plays · 64 yds · 1:0063% → 81%
MIADrive 18TD15 plays · 75 yds · 9:0022% → 43%
Q3 1:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
21.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 5 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
22.6%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
50
+5
22.8%
Emory Williams pass complete to Riley Williams for 5 yds to the CLEM 45Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
43.1%
Emory Williams pass complete to Colbie Young for 11 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5469% → 66%
MIADrive 20FG11 plays · 43 yds · 5:0738% → 59%
CLEMDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2051% → 46%
Q4 1:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
53.7%
Aidan Swanson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22END OF GAME4 plays · 14 yds · 1:0557% → 59%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
56.5%
Emory Williams pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 6 yds to the MIA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23FG3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
41.1%
(00:00) KLUBNIK, Cade pass to the right complete for 0 yards to BROWN, Tyler caught at the MIA27 and advanced to the MIA23 (BAIN JR., Rueben). PENALTY MIA Offsides on FLAGG JR., Corey enforced 5 yards from the MIA23 to the MIA18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
41.1%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the MIA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24FG1 play · 8 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25TD5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:00
Emory Williams pass complete to Colbie Young for 11 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
+24.6
FG · Q4 1:51
Andres Borregales 38 yd FG GOOD
+19.4
TD · Q3 2:01
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 19 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK)
-13.5