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LOU

Louisville 21 at Pittsburgh 38

PITT
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:34 · Caleb Junko punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jr. Kevin Coleman at the LOU 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior−3.6Home team on offense+17.3Garbage-time factor+9.2Score differential+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:43: Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +5.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:23: C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +14.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:25: Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +11.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:39: C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +22.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:14: M.J. Devonshire 86 Yd Interception Return (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +25.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:47PITT 4th & 22 at PITT 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:37PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:12LOU 4th & 15 at LOU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:00PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:50LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:30PITT 4th & 6 at LOU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:04LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.9%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:32PITT 4th & 4 at LOU 28, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.1%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−8.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:23LOU 4th & 26 at LOU 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−4.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:23PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.4%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:34PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 24, up 10
    Close callPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:56LOU 4th & 3 at PITT 29, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%−1.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:57PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:10LOU 4th & 6 at PITT 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−1.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:31PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 49, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:28LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:03PITT 4th & 5 at LOU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:06LOU 4th & 2 at PITT 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:39LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:37PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:43LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:23PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:25LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:39PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:14PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:03PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:1330% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-15
30.4%
run for a loss of 15 yards to the PITT 13 fumbled, recovered by PITT Christian VeilleuxSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
30.4%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
30.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:0869% → 70%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
30.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jr. Kevin Coleman for 7 yds to the PITT 33Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+7
30.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 7 yds to the PITT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
30.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 14 yds to the PITT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
30.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the PITT 7Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
30.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 7 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0231% → 31%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
30.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 24Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
30.8%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
30.6%
VEILLEUX, Christian pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MEANS, Bub thrown to the LOU45. PENALTY LOU Offsides on HERRON, Stephen enforced 5 yards from the PIT24 to the PIT29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
30.7%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
30.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 55 yds , returns for no gain to the LOU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:2569% → 69%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
30.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 12Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+4
30.9%
Jack Plummer run for 4 yds to the LOU 16Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+6
30.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 6 yds to the LOU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
30.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
30.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the LOU 26Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-9
30.9%
Jack Plummer sacked by Shayne Simon for a loss of 9 yards to the LOU 17Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
31.4%
Brock Travelstead punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1232% → 31%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
31.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
31.8%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-3
31.3%
Christian Veilleux run for 7 yds to the LOU 46 Pittsburgh Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PITT 44Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
31.1%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
30.9%
Caleb Junko punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1069% → 69%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
31.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
31.1%
Maurice Turner run for 12 yds to the LOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
30.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
30.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+4
31.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jr. Kevin Coleman for 4 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
31.3%
Brock Travelstead punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:1332% → 37%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
31.6%
Kenny Johnson run for 6 yds to the PITT 36Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+18
32.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 18 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
37.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 46 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5465% → 71%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.2%
Isaac Guerendo run for 9 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
34.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
34.5%
PLUMMER, Jack pass deep to the right incomplete intended for THOMPSON, Jadon thrown to the PIT35. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on WOODS, A.J. enforced 15 yards to the PIT45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
34.1%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 48 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by LOU Jack PlummerSimilar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 13
OPP 48
-5
34.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 47 Isaac Guerendo fumbled, recovered by LOU Jack PlummerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 47
+31
36.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 31 yds to the PITT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
34.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the PITT 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+10
34.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 10 yds to the PITT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
34.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 14Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+12
34.8%
PLUMMER, Jack pass to the left incomplete intended for THRASH, Jamari thrown to the PIT0. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on DEVONSHIRE, M.J. enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the PIT2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
34.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the PITT 1Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:0631% → 31%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
31.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 24 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
32.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 9 yds to the LOU 43Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-5
33.0%
Christian Veilleux sacked by Mason Reiger for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 48Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
32.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
31.2%
Caleb Junko punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:0769% → 73%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
30.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jr. Kevin Coleman for 11 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
29.9%
Maurice Turner run for 6 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+30
29.4%
Maurice Turner run for 30 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
28.5%
Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+14
28.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 14 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
28.3%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-14
26.9%
Jack Plummer sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the PITT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:0030% → 48%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
30.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
30.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 37Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+5
30.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 5 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
31.6%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+13
30.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 13 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
32.6%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 15
50
+34
31.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 34 yds to the LOU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
33.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 7 yds to the LOU 9Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+7
33.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds to the LOU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
33.4%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
33.4%
VEILLEUX, Christian pass short to the right incomplete intended for MUMPFIELD, Konata thrown to the LOU0; QB hurried by SPENCER, William. PENALTY LOU Holding on KELLY, Cam'Ron enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the LOU2 to the LOU1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:5860% → 76%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.6%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+34
39.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 34 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
36.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 7 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+15
35.1%
PLUMMER, Jack pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HUGGINS-BRUCE, Ahmari broken up by O'BRIEN JR., Phillip at the PIT0. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on O'BRIEN JR., Phillip enforced 15 yards to the PIT19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
35.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
35.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the PITT 14Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+9
35.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 9 yds to the PITT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
29.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 8 yds to the PITT 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5672% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.2%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
28.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jr. Kevin Coleman for no gain to the LOU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
28.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 6 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
28.5%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the LOU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3235% → 39%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
34.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the LOU 33Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+5
34.5%
Kenny Johnson run for 5 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
33.1%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
38.5%
Ben Sauls 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 1:0964% → 61%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-11
37.1%
Jack Plummer sacked by Solomon DeShields for a loss of 11 yards to the LOU 14Similar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
38.7%
TRAVELSTEAD, Brock punt 47 yards to the PIT39, NWABUKO, Che returned 17 yards to the LOU44 (HUGGINS-BRUCE, Ahmari), out of bounds, clock 10:33. PENALTY PIT Running Into the kicker on BASS, Jordan enforced 0 yards LOU Personal Foul on GILLOTTE, Ashton enforced 0 yards from the LOU19 to the LOU14. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
39.1%
Brock Travelstead punt for 52 yds, downed at the PITT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:4438% → 62%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
38.4%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
38.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 9 yds to the PITT 48Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
39.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for no gain to the PITT 48Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+1
38.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the PITT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
40.5%
Christian Veilleux run for 4 yds to the LOU 47Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
41.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
40.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 2 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
41.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
43.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+15
40.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 15 yds to the LOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
42.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 5 yds to the LOU 14Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+11
41.1%
Christian Veilleux run for 11 yds to the LOU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18INT TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:2545% → 27%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.9%
Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the LOU 29Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
53.7%
Maurice Turner run for 5 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+31
53.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 31 yds to the PITT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
48.1%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the PITT 32Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+12
47.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the PITT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
47.5%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-86
73.0%
M.J. Devonshire 86 Yd Interception Return (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19INT
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:2821% → 26%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
78.8%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the LOU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
79.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 3 yds to the LOU 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+15
79.8%
PLUMMER, Jack pass to the right incomplete intended for THRASH, Jamari broken up by WOODS, A.J. at the LOU35. PENALTY PIT Roughing the Passer on KAMARA, Bangally enforced 15 yards from the LOU23 to the LOU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
76.5%
Maurice Turner run for 8 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
75.5%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+27
75.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 27 yds to the PITT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
73.7%
Jack Plummer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0682% → 81%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
81.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the PITT 21Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
81.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 25
-1
81.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 24Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
81.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jr. Kevin Coleman at the LOU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:3819% → 15%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
81.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+8
81.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 8 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
80.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 48Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
80.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+12
82.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 12 yds to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
79.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
80.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+7
81.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 7 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
84.8%
Brock Travelstead 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5990% → 86%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
90.0%
C'Bo Flemister run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 28Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
89.4%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
89.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
89.1%
Caleb Junko punt for 34 yds , returns for no gain to the LOU 40Similar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
86.4%
PLUMMER, Jack pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for THRASH, Jamari thrown to the PIT30. PENALTY PIT Holding on DEVONSHIRE, M.J. enforced 10 yards from the LOU40 to the LOU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:4714% → 12%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
50
+4
85.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jr. Kevin Coleman for 4 yds to the PITT 46Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
85.3%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
85.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
88.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3992% → 93%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
92.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 47Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+2
92.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
91.9%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
92.5%
Caleb Junko punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jr. Kevin Coleman at the LOU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:039% → 9%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
90.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 16 yds to the LOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
90.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
90.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+7
91.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 7 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
91.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:1995% → 99%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
94.9%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the LOU 35Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+2
95.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the LOU 33Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+2
96.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+31
99.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 31 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:571% → 1%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 15 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 9 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+7
98.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 7 yds to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
99.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 13 yds to the PITT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.0%
Louisville Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jack Plummer) to the PITT 45Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 24
OPP 45
+22
99.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 22 yds to the PITT 23Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
98.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
98.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:06100% → 100%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
99.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 22Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-1
99.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:14
M.J. Devonshire 86 Yd Interception Return (Ben Sauls Kick)
+25.5
TD · Q3 3:39
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+22.5
TD · Q2 1:23
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com