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W&M

William & Mary 13 at Virginia 27

UVA
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadW&M aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreW&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:11 · Daniel Sparks punt for 5 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior+13.0Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:35: Caden Bonoffski 48 yd FG GOOD — W&M win probability +1.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:04: Martin Lucas run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Bonoffski KICK) — W&M win probability +6.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:31: Tony Muskett run for 7 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +6.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q2 0:07: Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 26 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +9.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:11: Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 27 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +9.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6W&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:27UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07W&M 4th & 13 at UVA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:52UVA 4th & 3 at W&M 28, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:35W&M 4th & 11 at UVA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:04W&M 4th & 1 at UVA 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:29W&M 4th & 1 at W&M 30, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:38UVA 4th & 15 at W&M 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:35W&M 4th & 8 at W&M 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:11UVA 4th & 21 at UVA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:10W&M 4th & 4 at W&M 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:44W&M 4th & 2 at UVA 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%−1.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−12.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 1 at W&M 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−4.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−3.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 3 at W&M 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−2.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:45W&M 4th & 4 at UVA 23, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3W&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:04W&M Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:31UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:07UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:11UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3374% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
74.4%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Sackett Wood Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
74.4%
Kobe Pace run for 7 yds to the UVA 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-10
74.4%
Tony Muskett sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the UVA 12Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 13
OWN 12
0
74.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 2FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:2026% → 27%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
74.0%
Malachi Imoh run for 9 yds to the UVA 35Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+5
74.0%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Malachi Imoh for 5 yds to the UVA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
74.0%
Hollis Mathis run for 3 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+9
74.0%
Carson Jenkins run for 9 yds to the UVA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
74.0%
Martin Lucas run for 3 yds to the UVA 21Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
74.0%
Martin Lucas run for no gain to the UVA 21Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 13
OPP 21
0
74.0%
Darius Wilson pass incomplete to Malachi ImohSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+38
73.3%
Caden Bonoffski 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:1573% → 73%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
73.1%
Malik Washington run for 1 yd to the UVA 32Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
73.1%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+17
73.2%
Perris Jones run for 17 yds to the W&M 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
73.5%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
73.5%
Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the W&M 42Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+7
73.5%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 7 yds to the W&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
73.7%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Suderian HarrisonSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
73.7%
Kobe Pace run for 7 yds to the W&M 28Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
73.5%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the W&M 28Similar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
72.8%
Will Bettridge 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 4FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:1728% → 30%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
72.3%
Darius Wilson run for 6 yds to the W&M 28Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
72.1%
Malachi Imoh run for 3 yds to the W&M 31Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+8
72.1%
Malachi Imoh run for 8 yds to the W&M 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
71.8%
Darius Wilson run for 16 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
71.5%
Shotgun Mathis,Hollis rush middle for 0 yards to the UVA45 (Diatta,Michael; Robinson,Kam) PENALTY UVA Personal Foul (Buchanan,Mekhi) 16 yards from UVA45 to UVA29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
71.2%
Darius Wilson run for 1 yd to the UVA 28Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+1
71.3%
Darius Wilson run for 1 yd to the UVA 29Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+1
71.6%
Malachi Imoh run for 1 yd to the UVA 30Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+48
70.0%
Caden Bonoffski 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:1370% → 71%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
69.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to JR Wilson for 10 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
70.1%
Kobe Pace run for 6 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
70.9%
Tony Muskett run for 6 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
70.5%
Tony Muskett run for 7 yds to the W&M 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-10
70.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Muskett,Tony pass complete short right to Pace,Kobe for 20 yards to the W&M25 (Jarrell,Kevin), out of bounds PENALTY UVA Illegal Block in Back 10 yards from W&M45 to UVA45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+16
69.6%
PENALTY W&M UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Jarrell,Kevin) 16 yards from UVA45 to W&M39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
70.6%
Tony Muskett run for no gain to the UVA 4 Tony Muskett fumbled, recovered by W&M John PiusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 6TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1833% → 38%
Q2 14:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
66.8%
Hollis Mathis run for 1 yd to the UVA 3Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
66.8%
Martin Lucas run for 1 yd to the UVA 2Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.3%
Darius Wilson run for 1 yd to the UVA 1Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.1%
PENALTY UVA Offside (Carter,Jahmeer). NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.8%
Martin Lucas run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Bonoffski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:3361% → 70%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
60.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 22 yds to the W&M 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
62.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 17 yds to the W&M 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
62.9%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Kobe PaceSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+12
62.8%
Perris Jones run for 12 yds to the W&M 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
62.8%
Tony Muskett run for 8 yds to the W&M 7Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
69.6%
Tony Muskett run for 7 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0234% → 35%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
66.3%
Martin Lucas run for no gain to the W&M 21Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
66.4%
Martin Lucas run for 1 yd to the W&M 20Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+10
67.3%
Darius Wilson run for 10 yds to the W&M 30Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
65.3%
Will Whitehurst punt for 33 yds , Suderian Harrison returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:5165% → 68%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
65.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 17 yds to the W&M 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
67.3%
Tony Muskett sacked by John Pius for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 45Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 17
OWN 45
+3
65.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Kobe Pace for 3 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-5
64.4%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Jones,Perris) 5 yards from UVA48 to UVA43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+42
64.3%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 42 yds to the W&M 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
68.4%
Kobe Pace run for 7 yds to the W&M 8Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 3
OPP 8
0
68.4%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the W&M 8Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 3
OPP 8
-12
67.2%
Tony Muskett sacked by Alex Washington for a loss of 12 yards to the W&M 20Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+37
68.3%
Will Bettridge 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0334% → 34%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
65.8%
Malachi Imoh run for no gain to the W&M 13Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
65.2%
Darius Wilson run for no gain to the W&M 13Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+2
66.1%
Malachi Imoh run for 2 yds to the W&M 15Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+4
66.4%
Will Whitehurst punt for 49 yds , Suderian Harrison returns for 4 yds to the UVA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:2469% → 65%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.0%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
68.1%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-11
67.1%
Tony Muskett sacked by John Pius for a loss of 11 yards to the UVA 29Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 21
OWN 29
0
65.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 5 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:1641% → 41%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
59.4%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Hollis Mathis for 14 yds to the UVA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
59.0%
Darius Wilson pass incomplete to JT MayoSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
59.2%
Hollis Mathis run for 1 yd to the UVA 21 Hollis Mathis fumbled, recovered by UVA Tayvonn KyleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 0:4867% → 79%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
67.2%
Perris Jones run for 18 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
68.5%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 16 yds to the W&M 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
70.3%
Tony Muskett run for 10 yds to the W&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
71.2%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
71.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the W&M 26Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+26
78.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 26 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
D. Wilson takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5024% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.5%
Darius Wilson pass complete to JT Mayo for 4 yds to the W&M 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
75.9%
Darius Wilson run for no gain to the W&M 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
76.9%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Martin Lucas for 2 yds to the W&M 31Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
77.5%
Will Whitehurst punt for 46 yds , Suderian Harrison returns for 8 yds to the UVA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16INT
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:1878% → 79%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
77.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 5 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+20
78.9%
Kobe Pace run for 20 yds to the W&M 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
79.5%
Perris Jones run for 15 yds to the W&M 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
79.7%
PENALTY W&M UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from W&M29 to W&M14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
79.7%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 7 yds to the W&M 7Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+2
79.7%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 2 yds to the W&M 5Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-10
79.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jones,Perris rush left for 5 yards gain to the W&M00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:58 PENALTY UVA Holding (Boley,McKale) 10 yards from W&M05 to W&M15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
79.2%
Tony Muskett pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 70 yds · 7:0823% → 24%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
76.9%
Hollis Mathis run for 19 yds to the W&M 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
75.5%
Hollis Mathis run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
50
0
74.2%
Malachi Imoh pass incomplete to Carson JenkinsSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
50
+4
75.1%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Trey McDonald for 4 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+6
74.6%
Darius Wilson run for 6 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
74.2%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Malachi Imoh for 3 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
74.1%
Darius Wilson pass incomplete to JT MayoSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+10
74.6%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Sean McElwain for 10 yds to the UVA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
72.4%
Darius Wilson pass complete to JT Mayo for 1 yd to the UVA 26Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+10
72.9%
Hollis Mathis run for 10 yds to the UVA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
72.4%
PENALTY W&M False Start (Crowell,Marcus) 5 yards from UVA16 to UVA21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+1
73.0%
Martin Lucas run for 1 yd to the UVA 20Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 14
OPP 20
0
73.9%
Martin Lucas run for no gain to the UVA 20Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+12
75.8%
Darius Wilson run for 12 yds to the UVA 8Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+2
75.8%
Martin Lucas run for 2 yds to the UVA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
18 plays · 90 yds · 7:3381% → 97%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
80.7%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 13Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
80.5%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 13Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+8
79.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the UVA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
80.9%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the UVA 26Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+11
81.6%
Perris Jones run for 11 yds to the UVA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
82.4%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 10 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
83.8%
Perris Jones run for 7 yds to the W&M 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
86.6%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the W&M 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+4
85.7%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Grant Misch for 4 yds to the W&M 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+1
84.8%
Grady Brosterhous run for 1 yd to the W&M 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
86.7%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
86.5%
Kobe Pace run for 7 yds to the W&M 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
85.9%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the W&M 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+4
84.8%
Tony Muskett run for 4 yds to the W&M 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
87.6%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the W&M 27Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+27
97.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 27 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 55 yds · 6:268% → 7%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
91.7%
Darius Wilson run for 10 yds to the W&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
91.0%
Malachi Imoh run for 1 yd to the W&M 36Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
90.9%
Malachi Imoh run for 1 yd to the W&M 37Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+9
91.1%
Darius Wilson run for 9 yds to the W&M 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
90.6%
Darius Wilson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 6
50
+2
90.3%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Sean McElwain for 2 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+4
90.5%
Darius Wilson pass complete to JT Mayo for 4 yds to the UVA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
90.3%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Sean McElwain for 6 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+9
89.7%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Carson Jenkins for 9 yds to the UVA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
89.1%
Hollis Mathis run for 1 yd to the UVA 28Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+5
89.5%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Hollis Mathis for 5 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
89.7%
Darius Wilson pass incomplete to Malachi ImohSimilar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+3
93.4%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Sean McElwain for 3 yds to the UVA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20END OF GAME
13 plays · 73 yds · 4:4598% → 99%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.1%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
98.2%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
98.1%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+43
98.2%
Perris Jones run for 43 yds to the W&M 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
98.4%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the W&M 19Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+2
99.1%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the W&M 17Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+3
99.2%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the W&M 20Similar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.3%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the W&M 8Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.3%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the W&M 5Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.4%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the W&M 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:07
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 26 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q4 11:11
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 27 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
+9.5
TD · Q2 9:31
Tony Muskett run for 7 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
+6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com