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SYR

Syracuse 7 at North Carolina 40

UNC
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreSYR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:05 · Jack Stonehouse punt for 31 yds, downed at the UNC 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense+26.1Pregame prior+8.3Score differential+18.4Garbage-time factor+6.0Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:33: Drake Maye run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +3.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:36: Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 23 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +7.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:10: Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +4.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:07: Noah Burnette 24 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +3.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:15: LeQuint Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — SYR win probability +5.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:51UNC 4th & 11 at SYR 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:00SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:11UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:01SYR 4th & 4 at SYR 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:23SYR 4th & 12 at UNC 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%−1.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:32SYR 4th & 17 at SYR 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:07UNC 4th & 3 at SYR 5, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:46UNC 4th & 9 at SYR 18, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:05SYR 4th & 5 at UNC 48, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:17SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 39, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:08UNC 4th & 13 at SYR 13, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:27UNC 4th & 11 at SYR 27, up 30
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SYR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:33UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:36UNC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:10UNC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:15SYR Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:41UNC Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 4:0376% → 76%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 7 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
76.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
76.3%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
76.3%
Drake Maye run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 1
50
+17
76.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 17 yds to the SYR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
76.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
76.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 8 yds to the SYR 25Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+4
76.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the SYR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
76.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 6 yds to the SYR 15Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+7
76.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the SYR 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Omarion HamptonSimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
75.9%
Drake Maye sacked by Kevon Darton for a loss of 3 yards to the SYR 11Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
75.9%
Noah Burnette 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:4124% → 24%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
75.8%
LeQuint Allen run for 9 yds to the SYR 34Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
75.6%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Damien AlfordSimilar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
75.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 4 yds to the SYR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
75.5%
Garrett Shrader run for 4 yds to the SYR 42Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-1
75.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the SYR 41Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
75.5%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Damien AlfordSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
75.7%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
18 plays · 94 yds · 7:2275% → 78%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
75.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 3 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
75.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 6 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
75.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
75.3%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 32Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
75.1%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-4
74.9%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the UNC 41 North Carolina Penalty, Illegal Block (Kobe Paysour) to the UNC 31Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+8
74.6%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the UNC 39Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+3
74.6%
Ben Kiernan punt blocked by Denis Jaquez Jr. for a 1ST down blocked by Denis Jaquez Jr. for a 1ST down Ben Kiernan run for 3 yds to the UNC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
75.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 13 yds to the SYR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
75.6%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 15
50
+6
75.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 6 yds to the SYR 44Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+9
75.5%
Drake Maye run for 9 yds to the SYR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
75.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+17
75.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 17 yds to the SYR 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
75.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 7 yds to the SYR 11Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+6
75.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the SYR 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
75.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the SYR 1Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.4%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1823% → 22%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
77.5%
LeQuint Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the SYR 23Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
77.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Donovan Brown for 7 yds to the SYR 30Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
77.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the SYR 31Similar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
78.0%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 51 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for 5 yds to the UNC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:2578% → 86%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
77.8%
British Brooks run for 9 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+6
78.1%
British Brooks run for 6 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
78.3%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
78.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 11 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
78.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 17 yds to the SYR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
78.8%
British Brooks run for 3 yds to the SYR 31Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
78.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+8
78.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for 8 yds to the SYR 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
86.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 23 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:5215% → 14%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.6%
LeQuint Allen run for no gain to the SYR 25Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
84.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Donovan Brown for 13 yds to the SYR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
84.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Dan Villari for 6 yds to the SYR 44Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+13
84.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 13 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
84.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Dan Villari for no gain to the UNC 43Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
84.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the UNC 38Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-7
84.7%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Cedric Gray for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 45 Garrett Shrader fumbled, recovered by SYRSimilar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
85.8%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 40 yds, downed at the UNC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
9 plays · 95 yds · 3:0987% → 93%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
86.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-2
86.7%
Drake Maye sacked by Leon Lowery for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 3Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+15
86.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 15 yds to the UNC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
87.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+18
87.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 18 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
87.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 5 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
87.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the SYR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+48
88.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 48 yds to the SYR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:299% → 8%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the SYR 27Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
91.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 9 yds to the SYR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
91.5%
Syracuse Penalty, Tripping (-15 Yards) to the SYR 21Similar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 25
OWN 21
0
91.9%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 25
OWN 21
+8
92.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 8 yds to the SYR 29Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 17
OWN 29
0
92.4%
Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the SYR 29Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
92.5%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 2:5894% → 98%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+28
93.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 28 yds to the SYR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
93.8%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
93.7%
British Brooks run for 6 yds to the SYR 43Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
93.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+8
93.4%
Syracuse Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the SYR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
94.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 5 yds to the SYR 30Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
94.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Omarion HamptonSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+6
94.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 6 yds to the SYR 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
94.5%
Drake Maye run for 12 yds to the SYR 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
94.7%
North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the SYR 27Similar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 25
OPP 27
+9
94.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 9 yds to the SYR 18Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 16
OPP 18
0
94.8%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 16
OPP 18
+13
94.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 13 yds to the SYR 5Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+24
98.3%
Noah Burnette 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SYR 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:393% → 7%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.3%
Shrader, Garrett pass incomplete, PENALTY SYRACUSE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SYRACUSE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
96.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 1 yd to the SYR 21Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
96.7%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+34
96.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 34 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
95.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 13 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
95.5%
LeQuint Allen run for 4 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
96.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Dan Villari for 4 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+18
98.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 18 yds to the UNC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
98.7%
LeQuint Allen run for 5 yds to the UNC 1Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.0%
LeQuint Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:1496% → 96%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
95.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
95.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
96.0%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+7
96.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 7 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+32
96.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 32 yds to the SYR 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
96.2%
British Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SYR 20Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+2
96.4%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the SYR 18Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
96.4%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the SYR 18Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+36
96.2%
Noah Burnette 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:353% → 3%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.6%
LeQuint Allen run for 2 yds to the SYR 27Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
96.6%
LeQuint Allen run for 8 yds to the SYR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the SYR 36Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+11
96.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 11 yds to the SYR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
96.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 5 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+4
97.0%
LeQuint Allen run for 4 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
97.0%
Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the UNC 44Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-4
97.5%
Syracuse Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the UNC 48Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
97.5%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 31 yds, downed at the UNC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:1998% → 100%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
97.8%
British Brooks run for 2 yds to the UNC 19 North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNC 9Similar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+8
97.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 8 yds to the UNC 17Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
97.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for 1 yd to the UNC 18Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+5
97.9%
Syracuse Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UNC 23Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+77
99.7%
Kobe Paysour 77 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the SYR 29Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Dan Villari for 1 yd to the SYR 30Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Garrett Shrader pass intercepted Alijah Huzzie return for no gain to the SYR 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
99.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 8 yds to the SYR 28Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+4
99.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the SYR 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
99.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 9 yds to the SYR 15Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.8%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-1
99.7%
Drake Maye run for a loss of 1 yard to the SYR 16 Drake Maye fumbled, recovered by SYRSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
99.8%
LeQuint Allen run for 7 yds to the SYR 23 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the SYR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.8%
Dan Villari run for 1 yd to the SYR 39Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
99.8%
LeQuint Allen run for no gain to the SYR 39Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18FG
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Donovan Brown for 5 yds to the SYR 30Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
99.9%
Syracuse Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SYR 20Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+14
99.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 14 yds to the SYR 34Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the SYR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-19
99.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass intercepted Amare Campbell return for 19 yds to the SYR 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
18 plays · 62 yds · 7:55100% → 100%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 5 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
99.8%
Caleb Hood run for 10 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 6 yds to the UNC 46Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
99.8%
Caleb Hood run for 3 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
99.8%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
50
+9
99.8%
Elijah Green run for 9 yds to the SYR 41Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Caleb Hood run for no gain to the SYR 41Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the SYR 41Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+6
99.8%
Syracuse Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the SYR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Caleb Hood run for 5 yds to the SYR 30Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+8
99.9%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the SYR 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.9%
Caleb Hood run for 3 yds to the SYR 19Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+9
99.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 9 yds to the SYR 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
99.9%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the SYR 9Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
99.9%
Conner Harrell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SYR 11Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-2
99.9%
Conner Harrell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SYR 13Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
99.9%
Noah Burnette 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Conner Harrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.9%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the SYR 25Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-2
100.0%
Elijah Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the SYR 27Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 11
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Conner Harrell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21DOWNS
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
100.0%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the SYR 29Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the SYR 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:36
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 23 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q3 11:15
LeQuint Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q2 6:10
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com