2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreWAKE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:54 · Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tyler Brown at the CLEM 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q3 7:15: Jonathan Weitz 25 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +2.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:20: Matthew Dennis 22 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +6.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:49: Will Shipley run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK) — CLEM win probability +13.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:34: Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — WAKE win probability +23.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:34: Phil Mafah run for 4 yds to the WAKE 40 — CLEM win probability +18.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 9WAKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:37WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.6%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.7%average punt
- Q1 10:47CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 29, tiedClose callPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it89.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:31WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.9%average punt
- Q1 6:31WAKE 4th & 2 at CLEM 2, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.8%48% to convertField goal11.7%−0.194% to makePunt11.1%−0.7average punt
- Q1 5:40CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snapGo for it87.7%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.8%average punt
- Q1 2:25WAKE 4th & 16 at CLEM 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.1% before the snapGo for it12.7%−0.314% to convertField goalTheir call13.0%80% to makePunt12.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 15:00CLEM 4th & 5 at WAKE 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.4%41% to convertField goal85.4%−<0.156% to makePunt85.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 7:35WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 38, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snapGo for it14.4%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%average punt
- Q2 6:20CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 9, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snapGo for it83.3%−<0.146% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.3%average punt
- Q2 3:04CLEM 4th & 6 at WAKE 42, up 4Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snapGo for it84.0%40% to convertField goal83.5%−0.530% to makePuntTheir call83.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:57WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 21, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snapGo for it15.7%−0.247% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.9%average punt
- Q2 0:00WAKE 4th & 10 at CLEM 21, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.6% before the snapGo for it17.6%−0.728% to convertField goalTheir call18.4%74% to makePunt14.7%−3.6average punt
- Q3 9:45CLEM 4th & 1 at WAKE 4, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.8%65% to convertField goal80.9%−1.993% to makePunt75.5%−7.3average punt
- Q3 7:15CLEM 4th & 8 at WAKE 8, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snapGo for it80.9%−0.626% to convertField goalTheir call81.5%90% to makePunt75.1%−6.4average punt
- Q3 2:20WAKE 4th & 3 at CLEM 4, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snapGo for it18.3%45% to convertField goalTheir call17.0%−1.293% to makePunt8.3%−10.0average punt
- Q4 14:26CLEM 4th & 7 at WAKE 34, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snapGo for it79.4%37% to convertField goalTheir call79.0%−0.447% to makePunt77.8%−1.7average punt
- Q4 12:54WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snapGo for it19.7%−3.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.9%average punt
- Q4 11:35CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 31, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 77.0% before the snapGo for it79.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.9%−2.4average punt
- Q4 9:34WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snapGo for it21.9%−0.738% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 10:18CLEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.7%97% to makeGo for two85.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:49CLEM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%−0.197% to makeGo for two93.9%45% to convert
- Q4 1:34WAKE Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick8.5%−0.397% to makeGo for twoTheir call8.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:238% → 8%
Q1 12:37
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
92.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Brown at the CLEM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5092% → 91%
WAKEDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 2:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2791% → 91%
WAKEDrive 5DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3310% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5190% → 90%
Q1 5:40
4TH & 7
OWN 5
+13
89.5%
Aidan Swanson punt for 53 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 13 yds to the CLEM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7FG8 plays · 28 yds · 3:1511% → 12%
CLEMDrive 8TD17 plays · 75 yds · 7:0788% → 89%
Q1 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
88.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 4 yds to the CLEM 32Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
88.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to for 3 yds to the CLEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
88.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 9 yds to the CLEM 44Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
87.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 3 yds to the CLEM 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+16
87.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 16 yds to the WAKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
88.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 9 yds to the WAKE 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+10
87.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 10 yds to the WAKE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
88.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 9 yds to the WAKE 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4312% → 13%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.9%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Wade Woodaz for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 24Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
87.9%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Cameron Hite for 5 yds to the WAKE 29Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
88.0%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 9 yds to the WAKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
87.5%
Ivan Mora punt for 59 yds , Tyler Brown returns for no gain to the CLEM 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1587% → 86%
WAKEDrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · 19 yds · 0:4214% → 15%
CLEMDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3487% → 86%
Q2 5:38
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+8
87.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 8 yds to the WAKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0714% → 14%
WAKEDrive 14MISSED FG7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5718% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15FG18 plays · 67 yds · 7:4584% → 88%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+9
85.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 9 yds to the WAKE 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+7
85.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 7 yds to the WAKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+6
85.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 6 yds to the WAKE 4Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
85.7%
PENALTY CLEM False Start (Putnam,Will) 5 yards from WF03 to WF08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16FG13 plays · 71 yds · 4:5515% → 24%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
83.9%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 8 yds to the WAKE 44Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
82.8%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 4 yds to the CLEM 49Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+14
82.5%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 14 yds to the CLEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
81.4%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 4 yds to the CLEM 39Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
80.8%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 13 yds to the CLEM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17MISSED FG9 plays · 41 yds · 2:5481% → 81%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
83.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Sage Ennis for 6 yds to the WAKE 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3222% → 21%
Q4 12:54
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
78.8%
Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tyler Brown at the CLEM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1979% → 78%
Q4 11:35
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
77.6%
Aidan Swanson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0124% → 23%
CLEMDrive 21TD8 plays · 61 yds · 3:4580% → 95%
WAKEDrive 22TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:157% → 34%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.2%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 8 yds to the WAKE 33Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
92.0%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Taylor Morin for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
91.2%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 10 yds to the CLEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
91.2%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 9 yds to the CLEM 30Similar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
89.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Griffis,Mitch pass incomplete deep left to Banks,Jahmal PENALTY CLEM Pass Interference (Lewis,Shelton) 15 yards from CLEM27 to CLEM12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
89.7%
Mitch Griffis sacked by T.J. Parker for a loss of 5 yards to the CLEM 17Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+9
90.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Carney,Tate rush middle for 0 yards to the CLEM17 (Denhoff,Cade) PENALTY CLEM Face Mask (Denhoff,Cade) 9 yards from CLEM17 to CLEM08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
89.7%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 5 yds to the CLEM 3Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23END OF GAME9 plays · 31 yds · 1:3495% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:34
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-23.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:34
Phil Mafah run for 4 yds to the WAKE 40
+18
TD · Q4 5:49
Will Shipley run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK)
+13.1