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PITT

Pittsburgh 21 at Virginia Tech 38

VT
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:15 · Caleb Junko punt for 54 yds , Tucker Holloway returns for no gain to the VT 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Home team on offense+3.0Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Pregame prior−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:21: Bhayshul Tuten 12 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick) — VT win probability +9.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:29: Kyron Drones 10 Yd Run (John Love Kick) — VT win probability +10.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:08: C'Bo Flemister 61 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +13.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:31: Braylan Lovelace 4 Yd Fumble Return (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +12.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:27: Jaylin Lane 53 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick) — VT win probability +11.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:10PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:21VT 4th & 4 at VT 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:32PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:54VT 4th & 2 at VT 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:38PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:02VT 4th & 1 at PITT 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.1%−0.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:15PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:50VT 4th & 9 at VT 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:30PITT 4th & 3 at VT 33, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.5%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:50VT 4th & 2 at PITT 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    63.4%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:53VT 4th & 11 at VT 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:28VT 4th & 8 at PITT 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:16PITT 4th & 15 at PITT 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−4.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:00PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:06VT 4th & 2 at PITT 15, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%−0.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−3.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:55PITT 4th & 20 at PITT 42, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:51VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:39PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:07VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:21VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:29VT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:08PITT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:31PITT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:27VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4752% → 51%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 26Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
48.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 25Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
48.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:1449% → 51%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
48.6%
Bhayshul Tuten run for a loss of 3 yards to the VT 32Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+12
48.7%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 12 yds to the VT 44Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
49.1%
Kyron Drones run for 4 yds to the VT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
49.3%
Jaylin Lane run for a loss of 2 yards to the VT 46Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+54
50.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 54 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
49.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Bub Means for 75 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1849% → 49%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.1%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds to the VT 29Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
49.3%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 2 yds to the VT 31Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
49.2%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
49.1%
Peter Moore punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4751% → 50%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
49.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 31Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
49.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
49.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
49.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:2549% → 50%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
49.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 8 yds to the VT 24Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+4
49.7%
Kyron Drones run for 4 yds to the VT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
49.6%
Malachi Thomas run for no gain to the VT 28Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
49.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 12 yds to the VT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.3%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
50.1%
Bhayshul Tuten run for a loss of 2 yards to the VT 38Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+10
49.6%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 10 yds to the VT 48Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
50.3%
Peter Moore punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:0650% → 50%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
49.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 21 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
49.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
49.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 8 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
49.2%
Daniel Carter run for no gain to the PITT 49Similar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 2
OWN 49
-4
49.7%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the PITT 45Similar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
49.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 10 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:2752% → 59%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
51.7%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 26 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
52.4%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
52.6%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
52.0%
Malachi Thomas run for 5 yds to the PITT 20Similar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+3
51.5%
Kyron Drones run for 3 yds to the PITT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
52.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 18Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+3
53.0%
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the PITT 15Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+12
52.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 12 yds to the PITT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
53.3%
Bhayshul Tuten run for no gain to the PITT 3Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
53.4%
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the PITT 2Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.5%
Kyron Drones 2 Yd Run (John Love Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5243% → 41%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
56.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
57.7%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the PITT 23Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
58.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
58.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 54 yds , Tucker Holloway returns for no gain to the VT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:1258% → 59%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
57.7%
Kyron Drones run for 13 yds to the VT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.2%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 2 yds to the VT 27Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
58.2%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 7 yds to the VT 34Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
58.8%
Kyron Drones run for 7 yds to the VT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.7%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
60.1%
(09:52) QB Keeper DRONES, Kyron rush up the middle for no gain to the VT41 (GEORGE, Brandon;BRIMA, Bam), clock 09:45. PENALTY VT Holding on CLEMENTS, Parker enforced 10 yards from the VT41 to the VT31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+11
59.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 11 yds to the VT 42Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
59.8%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
58.7%
Peter Moore punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:1341% → 37%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
58.9%
C'Bo Flemister run for 6 yds to the PITT 36Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+12
58.6%
Phil Jurkovec run for 12 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
58.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 9 yds to the VT 43Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
57.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
58.0%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the VT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
58.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the VT 37Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
58.9%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the VT 33Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
58.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+51
60.8%
Ben Sauls 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
63.2%
(04:30) DRONES, Kyron pass up the middle incomplete intended for LANE, Jaylin thrown to the VT41, clock 04:26. PENALTY UP Pass Interference on MCINTYRE, Javon enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the VT42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:0165% → 78%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
64.9%
Malachi Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 41Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+15
64.4%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Nate Temple) to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
66.0%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Kyron Drones) to the VT 42Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+18
64.3%
Kyron Drones run for 18 yds to the PITT 40Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
65.3%
Kyron Drones run for 4 yds to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
66.4%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 1 yd to the PITT 35Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+7
66.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 7 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
66.1%
Bhayshul Tuten run for no gain to the PITT 28Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+16
65.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 16 yds to the PITT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
68.3%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
78.1%
Bhayshul Tuten 12 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:2123% → 23%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 8 yds to the PITT 33Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+21
75.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 21 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
73.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
76.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:0778% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 6 yds to the VT 31Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-4
78.3%
Bhayshul Tuten run for a loss of 4 yards to the VT 27Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
77.9%
Virginia Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VT 22Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+7
77.9%
Malachi Thomas run for 7 yds to the VT 29Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
78.0%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the VT 24Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
77.8%
Peter Moore punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:4322% → 21%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
78.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the PITT 20Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
79.4%
Phil Jurkovec sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the PITT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16TD
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:1782% → 93%
Q3 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
81.6%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the PITT 5Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
82.0%
Kyron Drones run for a loss of 5 yards to the PITT 10Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
92.9%
Kyron Drones 10 Yd Run (John Love Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
79.0%
C'Bo Flemister 61 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -21 yds · 0:3383% → 70%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Kyron Drones run for no gain to the VT 25Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.4%
Braylan Lovelace 4 Yd Fumble Return (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:5071% → 73%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
70.8%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 7 yds to the VT 25Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+15
71.5%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Tyler Bentley) to the VT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
73.3%
Kyron Drones run for 4 yds to the VT 48Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
75.1%
Malachi Thomas run for 7 yds to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
75.5%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
75.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 6 yds to the PITT 39Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-4
75.1%
Kyron Drones run for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 43Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
73.1%
Peter Moore punt for 33 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the PITT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0431% → 26%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
69.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the PITT 11Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
70.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the PITT 13Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-8
72.3%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Cole Nelson and Keonta Jenkins for a loss of 8 yards to the PITT 5Similar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 15
OWN 5
0
73.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:4277% → 89%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
77.1%
Bhayshul Tuten run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 47Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+53
88.5%
Jaylin Lane 53 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:2714% → 9%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.9%
Daejon Reynolds run for 1 yd to the PITT 26Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
86.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 14 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
85.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the PITT 44Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
85.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the PITT 45Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-5
86.5%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PITT 40Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
90.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
91.0%
Caleb Junko punt for 52 yds, downed at the VT 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23FG
16 plays · 77 yds · 8:4693% → 98%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
92.5%
Kyron Drones run for 5 yds to the VT 13Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+11
92.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 11 yds to the VT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
93.3%
Jaylin Lane run for 11 yds to the VT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
93.6%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 11 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
94.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 7 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+3
94.8%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
94.9%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Tripping (Stephen Gosnell) to the VT 46Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+2
95.0%
Kyron Drones run for 2 yds to the VT 48Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 18
OWN 48
-1
95.1%
Kyron Drones run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 47Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 19
OWN 47
+30
95.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 30 yds to the PITT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
96.1%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 7 yds to the PITT 16Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-10
96.1%
TUTEN, Bhayshul rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the UP9 (MCMILLON, Donovan;MCINTYRE, Javon). PENALTY VT Holding on SAINT GERMAIN, Harrison enforced 10 yards from the UP16 to the UP26 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+9
96.3%
Kyron Drones run for 9 yds to the PITT 17Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+2
96.6%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 2 yds to the PITT 15Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
97.7%
John Love 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 27 yds · 4:123% → 2%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.7%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PITT 20Similar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
96.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
96.7%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PITT 25Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.5%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mansoor Delane) to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 4 yds to the PITT 40Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+12
97.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 12 yds to the VT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
97.5%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Pheldarius Payne and C.J. McCray for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 49Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-15
97.6%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Pheldarius Payne for a loss of 15 yards to the PITT 36Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 26
OWN 36
-5
98.1%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the PITT 31Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 20
OWN 42
+10
98.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 10 yds to the VT 48Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 31
OWN 31
+11
98.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 11 yds to the PITT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.1%
Malachi Thomas run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 8
50
+3
99.1%
Malachi Thomas run for 3 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+6
99.1%
Malachi Thomas run for 6 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.2%
(00:24) [NH] Kneel down by DRONES, Kyron at UP42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:08
C'Bo Flemister 61 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Ben Sauls Kick)
-13.9
TD · Q3 9:31
Braylan Lovelace 4 Yd Fumble Return (Ben Sauls Kick)
-12.1
TD · Q3 3:27
Jaylin Lane 53 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)
+11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com