View as
Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:14 · Garrett Shrader pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:26: Dan Villari 28 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick) — SYR win probability +4.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:23: Beaux Collins 47 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Jonathan Weitz Kick) — CLEM win probability +9.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Brady Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — SYR win probability +6.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:23: Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 6 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — SYR win probability +11.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:38: Phil Mafah run for 32 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK) — CLEM win probability +9.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 8:08SYR 4th & 16 at SYR 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snapGo for it33.5%−0.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.0%average punt
- Q1 6:44CLEM 4th & 5 at SYR 45, up 7Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snapGo for it66.3%41% to convertField goal65.9%−0.425% to makePuntTheir call66.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:34CLEM 4th & 20 at CLEM 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snapGo for it64.5%−1.910% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.4%average punt
- Q2 12:38SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snapGo for it33.2%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q2 6:06CLEM 4th & 2 at SYR 5, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.5%51% to convertField goal67.5%−1.092% to makePunt62.3%−6.3average punt
- Q2 3:25SYR 4th & 10 at CLEM 39, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snapGo for it32.2%30% to convertField goalTheir call32.0%−0.236% to makePunt31.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:32SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it21.7%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q3 7:49SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 39, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snapGo for it15.0%−0.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%average punt
- Q3 6:45CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 15, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snapGo for it85.5%−1.035% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.5%average punt
- Q3 4:53SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it13.9%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.2%average punt
- Q3 3:58CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 22, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snapGo for it87.2%−1.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.9%average punt
- Q3 1:17SYR 4th & 16 at SYR 42, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it11.2%−2.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
- Q4 7:31CLEM 4th & 6 at SYR 43, up 10Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snapGo for it87.1%40% to convertField goal85.3%−1.828% to makePuntTheir call86.2%−0.9average punt
- Q4 4:14SYR 4th & 12 at midfield, down 17Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.1%average punt
- Q4 2:18CLEM 4th & 6 at SYR 46, up 17Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.5%40% to convertField goal97.2%−0.323% to makePuntTheir call97.3%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:03CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.1%97% to makeGo for two65.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:53CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.6%97% to makeGo for two67.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:26SYR Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.7%97% to makeGo for two33.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:23CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.2%97% to makeGo for two75.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:23SYR Touchdown, down 11 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call18.4%−<0.197% to makeGo for two18.4%45% to convert
- Q4 6:38CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1FUMBLE5 plays · 11 yds · 1:2630% → 30%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
30.3%
Garrett Shrader run for 19 yds to the CLEM 45 Garrett Shrader fumbled, forced by Justin Mascoll, recovered by CLEM Payton PageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD8 plays · 55 yds · 3:0470% → 70%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
30.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 4 yds to the CLEM 49Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+16
30.3%
Klubnik, Cade pass incomplete to Randall, Adam, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference 16 yards to the SYRACUSE35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
30.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 2 yds to the SYR 15Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
29.7%
Troy Stellato 14 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Jonathan Weitz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4830% → 30%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
30.2%
Garrett Shrader sacked by T.J. Parker for a loss of 7 yards to the SYR 18Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-4
30.2%
Garrett Shrader sacked by T.J. Parker and Tyler Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the SYR 14Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+31
29.9%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 35 Syracuse Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1671% → 70%
Q1 6:44
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+23
30.0%
Aidan Swanson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by D'Marcus Adams at the SYR 8 Clemson Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-14 Yards) to the SYR 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
30.4%
LeQuint Allen run for no gain to the SYR 3 LeQuint Allen fumbled, recovered by CLEM Xavier Thomas , return for 20 yds to the SYR 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2771% → 73%
SYRDrive 7TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2328% → 32%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for no gain to the SYR 25Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
27.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Donovan Brown for 12 yds to the SYR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
27.8%
Allen, LeQuint rush for 16 yards to the CLEMSON47, PENALTY SYRACUSE holding (Petry, Mark) 10 yards to the SYRACUSE27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+37
27.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Dan Villari for 37 yds to the CLEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+28
32.2%
Dan Villari 28 Yd pass from Garrett Shrader (Brady Denaburg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 16 yds · 3:4669% → 69%
Q1 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
30.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 11 yds to the CLEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
30.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for 8 yds to the CLEM 47Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 11
50
-9
30.1%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Caleb Okechukwu for a loss of 9 yards to the CLEM 41Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 20
OWN 41
+2
31.4%
Aidan Swanson punt for 41 yds , D'Marcus Adams returns for 2 yds to the SYR 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5231% → 31%
CLEMDrive 10DOWNS16 plays · 70 yds · 6:1269% → 72%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
31.2%
Will Shipley run for 5 yds to the CLEM 23 Will Shipley fumbled, forced by Marlowe Wax, recovered by CLEM Will ShipleySimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+9
31.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 9 yds to the CLEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+16
31.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 16 yds to the SYR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
29.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 2 yds to the SYR 47Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+16
31.0%
Cade Klubnik pass incomplete for a 1ST down Syracuse Penalty, Personal Foul (Marlowe Wax) to the SYR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 2
OPP 5
-7
28.1%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Leon Lowery for a loss of 7 yards to the SYR 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11MISSED FG10 plays · 49 yds · 2:3531% → 32%
CLEMDrive 12TD4 plays · 61 yds · 0:5573% → 82%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
17.9%
Beaux Collins 47 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Jonathan Weitz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4422% → 21%
Q2 1:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
20.7%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Tyler Brown at the CLEM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14DOWNS9 plays · 59 yds · 1:2782% → 86%
Q2 1:20
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+8
18.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 8 yds to the CLEM 22Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+27
17.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 27 yds to the CLEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
15.1%
Klubnik, Cade pass incomplete to Briningstool, Jake, PENALTY SYRACUSE offside (Jobity Jr., Kevin) 5 yards to the SYRACUSE39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
14.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 14 yds to the SYR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15FG9 plays · 54 yds · 3:5381% → 85%
Q3 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
19.1%
Klubnik, Cade pass incomplete to Collins, Beaux, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference (Johnson, Isaiah) 15 yards to the CLEMSON45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+47
17.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 47 yds to the SYR 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-8
16.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for a loss of 8 yards to the SYR 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 3:0616% → 14%
CLEMDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5887% → 87%
Q3 6:45
4TH & 7
OWN 15
+48
13.0%
Aidan Swanson punt for 48 yds , D'Marcus Adams returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SYR 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4714% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4389% → 89%
Q3 3:58
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+5
11.5%
Aidan Swanson punt for 49 yds , D'Marcus Adams returns for 5 yds to the SYR 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:2813% → 12%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
12.8%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Ruke Orhorhoro for a loss of 6 yards to the SYR 28Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+14
12.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 14 yds to the SYR 42Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 8
50
-8
13.0%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and T.J. Parker for a loss of 8 yards to the SYR 42Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
12.0%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyler Brown at the CLEM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21FUMBLE5 plays · 35 yds · 1:5092% → 93%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
8.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for a loss of 2 yards to the CLEM 18Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+18
8.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 18 yds to the CLEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
6.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for a loss of 7 yards Jake Briningstool fumbled, forced by Myles Farmer, recovered by SYR Jayden Bellamy , return for 13 yds to the CLEM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22TD6 plays · 42 yds · 1:379% → 22%
CLEMDrive 23PUNT14 plays · 32 yds · 4:4782% → 88%
Q4 11:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
18.3%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Leon Lowery for a loss of 1 yard to the CLEM 23Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+19
16.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 19 yds to the CLEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+16
13.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 16 yds to the SYR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
11.4%
Klubnik, Cade pass incomplete to Collins, Beaux, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Shipley, Will) off-setting, PENALTY SYRACUSE Pass Interference (Johnson, Isaiah) off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 11
OPP 48
+5
12.8%
Swanson, Aidan punt 38 yards to the SYRACUSE10, Adams, D'Marcus return 5 yards to the SYRACUSE15, PENALTY SYRACUSE running into kicker (Sparrow, Anwar) 5 yards to the SYRACUSE43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
12.2%
Aidan Swanson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by D'Marcus Adams at the SYR 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 24INT3 plays · 12 yds · 0:3813% → 13%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
13.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Donovan Brown for 4 yds to the SYR 13Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+8
12.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 8 yds to the SYR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
12.5%
Garrett Shrader pass intercepted Jeremiah Trotter Jr. return for no gain to the SYR 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25TD1 play · 32 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 26DOWNS9 plays · 25 yds · 2:195% → 3%
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 9 yds to the SYR 34Similar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
4.0%
Shrader, Garrett pass incomplete to Allen, LeQuint, PENALTY CLEMSON personal foul 10 yards to the SYRACUSE47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
3.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Garrett Shrader for no gain Garrett Shrader fumbled, recovered by SYR Garrett ShraderSimilar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+2
3.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27DOWNS5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3898% → 98%
Q4 2:18
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
1.7%
Aidan Swanson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by D'Marcus Adams at the SYR 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 28END OF GAME6 plays · 27 yds · 1:502% → 2%
Q4 0:23
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+5
1.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Kendall Long for 5 yds to the SYR 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:23
Garrett Shrader pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 6 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q2 2:23
Beaux Collins 47 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Jonathan Weitz Kick)
-9.9
TD · Q4 6:38
Phil Mafah run for 32 yds for a TD (Jonathan Weitz KICK)
-9.5