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UVA

Virginia 24 at Boston College 27

BC
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:32 · Daniel Sparks punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Home team on offense−14.8Pregame prior+6.8Score differential−7.8Garbage-time factor−3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:47: Pat Garwo III 2 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick) — BC win probability +14.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 39 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +14.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:09: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 4 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +18.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 1:04: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 33 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +14.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:11: Liam Connor 42 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +21.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UVA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 7:40BC 4th & 10 at BC 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:32UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:15BC 4th & 6 at UVA 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:24UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:24UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:11BC 4th & 15 at BC 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:11BC 4th & 15 at BC 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:54UVA 4th & 12 at BC 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:26BC 4th & 12 at BC 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:32UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−2.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:32UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−2.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:47BC 4th & 5 at UVA 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−5.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:41UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 40, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:04BC 4th & 3 at UVA 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.8%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:09UVA 4th & 20 at UVA 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−5.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:53UVA 4th & 4 at BC 37, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−2.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−3.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:10UVA 4th & 11 at BC 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−4.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−12.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:47BC 4th & 1 at UVA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−10.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−15.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:11BC 4th & 2 at UVA 24, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%−3.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−28.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:24UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.7%−6.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:25UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:11UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:47BC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:00UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:09BC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:04BC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3537% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.1%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
63.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 6 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
63.1%
Tony Muskett run for 9 yds to the UVA 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
63.1%
Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the UVA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
63.1%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
63.1%
Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+18
63.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 18 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
63.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 23 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
63.1%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the BC 5Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
60.7%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Mike Hollins for 5 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4061% → 60%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
61.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
61.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
61.3%
Alex Broome run for no gain to the BC 30Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+15
61.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 15 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
61.5%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the BC 45Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
61.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
59.7%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0840% → 41%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
59.7%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 21Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
59.7%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 21Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+1
59.8%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 22Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-6
59.9%
Tony Muskett sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for a loss of 6 yards to the UVA 16Similar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
59.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1760% → 59%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
60.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
60.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-2
60.1%
Pat Garwo III run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 40Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+6
59.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
59.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:5142% → 43%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
58.1%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
58.1%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
58.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the UVA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
57.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 11 yds to the UVA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
57.3%
Tony Muskett run for 1 yd to the UVA 44Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
57.3%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 45Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-5
57.5%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 40Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
58.0%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
56.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
56.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6INT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0757% → 57%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
56.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
56.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
56.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 7 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
56.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 2 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+13
56.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 13 yds to the BC 46 Thomas Castellanos fumbled, recovered by BC Ozzy Trapilo for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
57.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7TD
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:0646% → 54%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
53.8%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
53.8%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
53.8%
Tony Muskett run for 9 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-5
53.5%
Virginia Penalty, Encroachment on STEVENS, Brian enforced (Brian Stevens) to the BC 33Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+14
54.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 14 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
53.7%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the BC 18Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
45.7%
Malik Washington 18 Yd pass from Tony Muskett (Will Bettridge Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 3:5447% → 43%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
46.7%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
46.7%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
46.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+5
46.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
47.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 18 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
48.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the BC 45Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-5
48.2%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (Kyle Hergel) to the BC 40Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 14
OWN 40
-1
47.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 39Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 15
OWN 39
0
46.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
42.5%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 40 yds, downed at the UVA 21Similar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
42.5%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 40 yds, downed at the UVA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:1757% → 62%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
42.9%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 15 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
42.9%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 15 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
42.4%
Mike Hollins run for 13 yds to the UVA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
41.7%
Tony Muskett run for 11 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
41.5%
MUSKETT, Tony scrambles to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the BOS37 (TATE, Nigel), out of bounds. PENALTY UVA Holding on NNANNA, Ugonna enforced 10 yards from the BOS40 to the UVA50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 20
50
-5
41.7%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (Ty Furnish) to the UVA 45Similar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 25
OWN 45
0
41.8%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 25
OWN 45
+5
42.0%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 20
50
+8
42.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Mike Hollins for 8 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
38.5%
Daniel Sparks punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2839% → 38%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
39.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to George Takacs for 1 yd to the BC 21Similar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
39.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to George Takacs for 1 yd to the BC 21Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-3
39.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 18Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
38.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
37.5%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 50 yds, downed at the UVA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5463% → 65%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
37.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Kobe Pace for 1 yd to the UVA 33Similar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
37.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Kobe Pace for 1 yd to the UVA 33Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
37.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Kobe Pace for 4 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-8
36.9%
Tony Muskett sacked by Khari Johnson and George Rooks for a loss of 8 yards to the UVA 29Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
34.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 43 ydsSimilar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
34.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 0:4536% → 53%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
36.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the BC 36Similar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
36.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the BC 36Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
35.9%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass deep to the right incomplete intended for O'KEEFE, Ryan thrown to the UVA44. PENALTY UVA Pass Interference on KYLE, Tayvonn enforced 15 yards to the UVA49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
38.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 11
50
+10
37.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 10 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+34
38.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 34 yds to the UVA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
39.0%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass to the left incomplete intended for GRIFFIN, Joe thrown to the UVA0. PENALTY UVA Pass Interference on GREENE, Malcolm enforced 4 yards to the UVA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.2%
Pat Garwo III 2 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 0:4154% → 75%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
45.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 11 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
45.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 11 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
44.8%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+23
44.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 23 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
40.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 13 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
40.0%
Virginia Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tony Muskett) to the BC 38Similar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
39.2%
Virginia Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tony Muskett) to the BC 38Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+39
25.5%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 39 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:1234% → 35%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
33.6%
(14:59) GARWO, Patrick rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the BOS18 (HERARD, Dave). PENALTY BOS Holding on BOWRY, Jude enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the BOS13 to the BOS7 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+6
33.4%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass up the middle incomplete intended for GRIFFIN, Joe thrown to the BOS13. PENALTY UVA Pass Interference on JACKSON, James enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the BOS13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
33.6%
Pat Garwo III run for 14 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
34.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+11
34.2%
Pat Garwo III run for 11 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
36.0%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
35.9%
Alex Broome run for 1 yd to the BC 44Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+13
35.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for 13 yds to the UVA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
36.4%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 14 yds to the UVA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
37.2%
Pat Garwo III run for 6 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
37.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-1
36.3%
Ryan O'Keefe run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 24Similar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
33.6%
(14:59) GARWO, Patrick rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the BOS18 (HERARD, Dave). PENALTY BOS Holding on BOWRY, Jude enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the BOS13 to the BOS7 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
34.5%
Liam Connor 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5866% → 68%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
33.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
33.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
33.2%
Perris Jones run for 4 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-1
33.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 40Similar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
32.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 38 yds , Lewis Bond returns for no gain to the BC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:3233% → 55%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
33.2%
Alex Broome run for 33 yds to the UVA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
36.9%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GRIFFIN, Joe thrown to the UVA0. PENALTY UVA Pass Interference on KING, Coen enforced 15 yards to the UVA15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
36.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 3 yds to the UVA 12Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+8
36.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 8 yds to the UVA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 4 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:0553% → 54%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.8%
Tony Muskett run for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
46.5%
MUSKETT, Tony pass to the right incomplete intended for FIELDS, Malachi broken up by JONES, Elijah at the UVA40. PENALTY BOS Pass Interference on JONES, Elijah enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the UVA42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
44.2%
Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ugonna Nnanna) to the UVA 36Similar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
44.2%
Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ugonna Nnanna) to the UVA 36Similar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 16
OWN 36
0
46.1%
Tony Muskett pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:0049% → 70%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
49.0%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
51.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
52.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
53.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+2
52.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the UVA 47Similar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+8
50.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 8 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
53.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the UVA 35Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
55.4%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+33
70.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 33 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:5533% → 29%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-6
65.8%
Tony Muskett sacked by George Rooks for a loss of 6 yards to the UVA 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-8
68.8%
Tony Muskett sacked by Khris Banks for a loss of 8 yards to the UVA 15Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
71.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 70 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2271% → 73%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
71.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
70.7%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (Kyle Hergel) to the BC 28Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+24
69.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to George Takacs for 24 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
74.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 4 yds to the UVA 44Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-5
74.2%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 49Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+2
73.0%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the UVA 47 Pat Garwo III fumbled, recovered by UVA Dave HerardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5436% → 35%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
63.9%
Tony Muskett run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 7
50
+5
63.1%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
63.6%
Tony Muskett run for 2 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
63.1%
Mike Hollins run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 44Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+7
64.6%
Tony Muskett run for 7 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
63.2%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
65.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:1672% → 71%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
72.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
72.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the BC 24Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+15
70.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 15 yds Josiah Griffin fumbled, recovered by UVA Jonas SankerSimilar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+15
70.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 15 yds Josiah Griffin fumbled, recovered by UVA Jonas SankerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2738% → 47%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
62.5%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+10
62.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 10 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
60.3%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
60.9%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-1
63.1%
Tony Muskett run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 27Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+44
53.2%
Will Bettridge 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:5958% → 89%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.4%
Pat Garwo III run for 9 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
61.6%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
60.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 21 yds to the UVA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
64.2%
Pat Garwo III run for 8 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-2
65.6%
Pat Garwo III run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 36Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
63.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
60.6%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the UVA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
65.5%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
66.2%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+4
67.2%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the UVA 24Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+42
88.5%
Liam Connor 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4121% → 20%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
78.6%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
80.1%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+7
81.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 7 yds to the UVA 35Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
80.3%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:4193% → 95%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
93.0%
[SG] Kneel down by BOS at UVA39 (team loss of 4).Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 14
OPP 39
0
95.3%
Kneel down by BOS at UVA42 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 17
OPP 42
0
94.9%
Kneel down by BOS at UVA45 (team loss of 3).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 2:11
Liam Connor 42 yd FG GOOD
+21.3
TD · Q3 6:09
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 4 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
+18.4
TD · Q2 0:00
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 39 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
-14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com