Try the model
UNC

North Carolina 41 at Pittsburgh 24

PITT
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:10 · Caleb Junko punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense+3.4Pregame prior−17.7Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:56: Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +7.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:09: Drake Maye run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +6.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:23: Alijah Huzzie 52 Yd Punt Return (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +10.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:00: Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +8.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:32: Drake Maye run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +11.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q2 13:19UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:10PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:09UNC 4th & 1 at PITT 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−8.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:38PITT 4th & 12 at UNC 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:36PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:44UNC 4th & 9 at PITT 25, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:58UNC 4th & 6 at PITT 30, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:26UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 22, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−3.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:54UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:54UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:06PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.8%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:29UNC 4th & 10 at PITT 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:45UNC 4th & 5 at PITT 38, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:56PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:38UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:09UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:23UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:00UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:32UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 7:5926% → 33%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
25.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
25.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+9
25.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 9 yds to the PITT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
25.9%
Phil Jurkovec run for 20 yds to the UNC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
25.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+4
25.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
25.9%
Kenny Johnson run for 9 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
25.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the UNC 22Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+4
25.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 4 yds to the UNC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
25.9%
Kenny Johnson run for 3 yds to the UNC 15Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
25.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNC 10Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
25.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 3 yds to the UNC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
33.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1868% → 70%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.4%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.5%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
32.7%
MAYE, Drake pass up the middle incomplete intended for MCCOLLUM, Nate broken up by O'BRIEN JR., Phillip at the UNC38. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on O'BRIEN JR., Phillip enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the UNC39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
32.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 40Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
32.1%
HAMPTON, Omarion rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the UNC42 (JULES, Deandre). PENALTY PIT Offsides on JULES, Deandre enforced 4 yards from the UNC40 to the UNC44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-2
31.8%
Drake Maye sacked by David Green for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 43Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+11
32.2%
Drake Maye run for 11 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
31.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 13 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
31.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 18 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
31.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 13 yds to the PITT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
31.3%
British Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 3Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:4331% → 40%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.4%
Phil Jurkovec run for 9 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
32.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
31.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 1 yd to the PITT 37Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+9
31.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 9 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
32.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 23 yds to the UNC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+30
35.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 30 yds to the UNC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.1%
Daniel Carter run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3662% → 59%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.2%
British Brooks run for 2 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
38.0%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
38.7%
Drake Maye sacked by Devin Danielson and Tyler Bentley for a loss of 6 yards to the UNC 21Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
40.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0940% → 41%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
40.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 33Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
40.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 1 yd to the PITT 34Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-5
39.8%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the PITT 29Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
39.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
40.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:0762% → 67%
Q2 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
38.5%
British Brooks run for 4 yds to the PITT 1Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.5%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the PITT 1Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
39.5%
British Brooks run for no gain to the PITT 1Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.5%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT TD
4 plays · -23 yds · 1:4637% → 25%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
36.6%
Phil Jurkovec run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 23Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
36.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-21
35.4%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 21 yards to the PITT 2Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 33
OWN 2
+52
25.4%
Alijah Huzzie 52 Yd Punt Return (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:4527% → 31%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 26Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+21
27.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 21 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
29.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 29 yds to the UNC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
30.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-4
31.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 26Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
29.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
31.4%
Ben Sauls 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 2:3168% → 80%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-7
32.4%
Drake Maye sacked by Samuel Okunlola for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 2Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 17
OWN 2
+5
32.7%
BROOKS, British rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the UNC9 (MCMILLON, Donovan;EPPS, Malcolm). PENALTY Before the snap, PIT Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UNC2 to the UNC7. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+34
32.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 19 yds to the UNC 26 for a 1ST down Pittsburgh Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Donovan McMillon) to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
30.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 29 yds to the PITT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
28.8%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+15
28.6%
Drake Maye run for 15 yds to the PITT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
28.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the PITT 7Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
20.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10MISSED FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:0022% → 24%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 6 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
22.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
22.1%
North Carolina Penalty, Targeting on HOLLOWAY, Tayon enforced (Tayon Holloway) to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
22.6%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 15 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+48
23.6%
Ben Sauls 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2877% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+52
22.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 52 yds to the PITT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
21.7%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the PITT 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
21.8%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+11
22.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 11 yds to the PITT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
21.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds to the PITT 1Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.7%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the PITT 1Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.6%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5613% → 13%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.1%
Christian Veilleux run for 3 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
13.1%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
12.9%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
12.6%
Caleb Junko punt for 52 yds, downed at the UNC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:5289% → 94%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
11.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 26 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
10.5%
British Brooks run for 6 yds to the PITT 48Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+22
10.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 22 yds to the PITT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
10.0%
British Brooks run for 1 yd to the PITT 25Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
10.3%
British Brooks run for no gain to the PITT 25Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
10.5%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
6.2%
Noah Burnette 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:3483% → 88%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
16.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 10 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
16.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
16.2%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+10
16.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 10 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
15.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+17
15.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 17 yds to the PITT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
15.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 38Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+3
12.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 3 yds to the PITT 35Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+5
11.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 5 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
12.3%
Noah Burnette 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:2417% → 17%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
16.7%
Kenny Johnson run for 8 yds to the PITT 43Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+17
17.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 17 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
18.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-5
19.5%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (Kenny Johnson) to the UNC 40Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
16.7%
Christian Veilleux pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:0589% → 90%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
11.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 4 yds to the UNC 6Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+16
11.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 16 yds to the UNC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
10.8%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-7
10.9%
Drake Maye sacked by Deandre Jules for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 15
+7
11.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 7 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
9.7%
punt blocked by Rasheem Biles blocked by Rasheem BilesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0017% → 9%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
17.2%
Christian Veilleux run for 3 yds to the UNC 17 Christian Veilleux fumbled, recovered by UNC Cedric GraySimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
9.0%
MAYE, Drake pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MCCOLLUM, Nate thrown to the UNC40. PENALTY PIT Holding on MCINTYRE, Javon enforced 10 yards from the UNC17 to the UNC27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2591% → 93%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
8.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 5 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-6
8.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for a loss of 6 yards to the UNC 26Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+15
9.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 15 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
8.3%
British Brooks run for no gain to the UNC 41Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
8.5%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
8.6%
Drake Maye sacked by Shayne Simon for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 36Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
7.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 37 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for no gain to the PITT 36 Pittsburgh Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the PITT 18Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
7.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 37 yds , returns for no gain to the PITT 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:4812% → 9%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 12
OWN 18
+12
11.6%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 12 yds to the PITT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
12.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
11.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 11 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
12.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 4 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
12.6%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
12.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
9.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3795% → 95%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
5.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the PITT 44Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-1
5.6%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 45Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
5.0%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the PITT 45Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
5.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the PITT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21Uncategorized
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:067% → 6%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+40
6.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 40 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
50
0
8.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
50
0
7.8%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 10
50
0
7.3%
Christian Veilleux pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 10
50
-5
6.9%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (Branson Taylor) to the PITT 45Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 15
OWN 45
-5
6.1%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Christian Veilleux) to the PITT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3896% → 96%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
4.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 1 yd to the PITT 42Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+1
4.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the PITT 41Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+3
3.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
3.9%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23INT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:503% → 2%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.6%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to C'Bo Flemister for no gain to the PITT 38Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
2.6%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 3 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+5
2.5%
North Carolina Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the PITT 46Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+10
2.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 10 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
2.9%
Christian Veilleux sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 15 yards to the PITT 41Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 25
OWN 41
0
1.9%
Christian Veilleux pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:5598% → 98%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
2.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by UNC at PIT23 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
2.1%
[NH] Kneel down by UNC at PIT24 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
2.0%
[NH] Kneel down by UNC at PIT26 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:32
Drake Maye run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q2 7:23
Alijah Huzzie 52 Yd Punt Return (Noah Burnette Kick)
-10
TD · Q2 1:00
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com