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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreMIA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:56 · Dante Atton punt for 49 yds, downed at the MIA 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:11: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 28 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +2.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:09: Andres Borregales 26 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +1.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:03: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 13 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +2.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:02: E.J. Warner pass complete to Reese Clark for 9 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +2.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:44: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +3.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 9:46TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snapGo for it10.0%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.1%average punt
- Q2 9:37TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.3%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
- Q2 8:09MIA 4th & 3 at TEM 7, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snapGo for it89.9%46% to convertField goalTheir call89.5%−0.491% to makePunt86.7%−3.2average punt
- Q2 4:33TEM 4th & 12 at MIA 35, down 17Close callWent for it · 9.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.3%−0.224% to convertField goal9.5%45% to makePunt9.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 2:57MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 35, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snapGo for it91.3%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.7%average punt
- Q3 10:37TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.2%−0.3average punt
- Q3 8:42MIA 4th & 17 at TEM 41, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.1%−0.315% to convertField goal97.3%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q3 7:46TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 15, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.535% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q3 1:56TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 31, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 11:42MIA 4th & 13 at TEM 20, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call99.5%75% to makePunt99.1%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:24TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 42, down 34Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 5:38MIA 4th & 3 at TEM 16, up 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%51% to convertField goal99.7%−0.181% to makePunt99.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:42TEM 4th & 17 at midfield, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 3:04MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.1%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:11MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:03MIA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.2%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:02TEM Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.4%97% to makeGo for two7.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:44MIA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:49MIA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 5:046% → 8%
Q1 14:12
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+5
6.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 5 yds to the TEM 11Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+7
6.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 7 yds to the TEM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+13
7.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 13 yds to the TEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
7.8%
Dante Atton punt for 49 yds , Xavier Restrepo returns for no gain to the MIA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD13 plays · 82 yds · 6:3692% → 92%
Q1 7:18
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
8.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 5 yds to the TEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+8
9.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 8 yds to the TEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
8.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 7 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3INT7 plays · 57 yds · 2:369% → 11%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
9.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 46 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
10.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Joquez Smith for 2 yds to the MIA 27Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+8
10.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to John Adams for 8 yds to the MIA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
10.8%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted, touchback. Te'Cory Couch return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD5 plays · 80 yds · 2:3290% → 92%
TEMDrive 5PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 2:138% → 8%
Q2 10:16
3RD & 12
OWN 21
-2
8.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the TEM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FG6 plays · 46 yds · 1:1592% → 93%
TEMDrive 7DOWNS8 plays · 40 yds · 3:128% → 8%
MIADrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0893% → 93%
TEMDrive 9FUMBLE2 plays · 2 yds · 0:298% → 8%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
7.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 8 yds to the TEM 30Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 2
OWN 30
-6
8.3%
E.J. Warner sacked by Thomas Gore for a loss of 6 yards to the TEM 24 E.J. Warner fumbled, forced by Thomas Gore, recovered by MIA Jahfari Harvey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD4 plays · 24 yds · 1:0794% → 97%
TEMDrive 11TD11 plays · 75 yds · 0:585% → 9%
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
5.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 15 yds to the TEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
5.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 14 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
5.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 9 yds to the MIA 37Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+28
6.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 18 yds to the MIA 19 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Roughing Passer (10 Yards) to the MIA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
9.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Reese Clark for 9 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD8 plays · 63 yds · 2:5993% → 97%
Q3 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
6.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 5 yds to the MIA 46Similar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
6.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 2 yds to the TEM 47Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+28
6.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 28 yds to the TEM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14INT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:434% → 4%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
3.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 8 yds to the TEM 25Similar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 2
OWN 25
-15
3.5%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Te'Cory Couch return for no gain to the MIA 25 Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MIA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 1:4497% → 98%
Q3 8:42
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
2.5%
Dylan Joyce punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the TEM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:523% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD8 plays · 72 yds · 3:5398% → 99%
TEMDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q3 2:50
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+6
0.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 6 yds to the TEM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19FG13 plays · 60 yds · 4:48100% → 100%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
0.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 25 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 5
50
+18
0.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 18 yds to the TEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
0.4%
Van Dyke, Tyler pass complete to Young, Colbie for 32 yards to the TEMPLE0, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference 15 yards to the TEMPLE47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+19
0.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Ray Ray Joseph for 19 yds to the TEM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
0.4%
Fletcher Jr., Mark rush for 17 yards to the TEMPLE0, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Rodriguez, Ryan) 10 yards to the TEMPLE27, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 24 yds · 3:060% → 0%
Q4 10:20
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+9
0.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Xavier Irvin for 9 yds to the TEM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
0.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 10 yds to the TEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
0.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 4 yds to the TEM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 25 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 3:380% → 0%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+28
0.1%
Quincy Patterson pass complete to Xavier Irvin for 28 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 15
OPP 48
-2
0.1%
Quincy Patterson sacked by Thomas Gore for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 17
50
0
0.1%
Dante Atton punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23END OF GAME4 plays · 33 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:44
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-3.6
TD · Q2 0:02
E.J. Warner pass complete to Reese Clark for 9 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 12:11
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 28 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-2