2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:13 · Ivan Mora punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Rodney Shelley at the GT 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:04: Haynes King pass complete to Abdul Janneh for 33 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +8.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:07: Aidan Birr 25 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +4.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:10: Aidan Birr 48 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +4.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q4 10:47: Aidan Birr 27 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +8.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:26: Mitch Griffis pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 16 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +14.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 13:53GT 4th & 1 at GT 32, tiedClose callPunted · 38.8% before the snapGo for it38.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:24WAKE 4th & 7 at GT 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snapGo for it61.1%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call61.2%91% to makePunt60.1%−1.1average punt
- Q1 4:49WAKE 4th & 1 at GT 41, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.7%70% to convertField goal58.6%−1.132% to makePunt58.8%−0.9average punt
- Q1 0:10WAKE 4th & 3 at GT 26, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.8%52% to convertField goal58.4%−0.464% to makePunt55.5%−3.3average punt
- Q2 11:13WAKE 4th & 11 at WAKE 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snapGo for it55.3%−1.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.4%average punt
- Q2 4:01GT 4th & 5 at GT 32, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snapGo for it56.4%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.1%average punt
- Q2 3:07GT 4th & 8 at WAKE 9, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snapGo for it57.2%−0.527% to convertField goalTheir call57.7%89% to makePunt53.3%−4.4average punt
- Q2 2:31WAKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snapGo for it33.3%−1.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q2 0:10GT 4th & 16 at WAKE 31, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snapGo for it67.3%−1.816% to convertField goalTheir call69.1%54% to makePunt66.8%−2.3average punt
- Q3 6:25GT 4th & 12 at GT 49, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snapGo for it68.1%−2.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.1%average punt
- Q3 3:48WAKE 4th & 2 at GT 49, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.3%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt28.0%−1.3average punt
- Q4 14:50GT 4th & 6 at WAKE 35, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.0%40% to convertField goal76.2%−0.745% to makePunt75.1%−1.9average punt
- Q4 10:47GT 4th & 10 at WAKE 10, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snapGo for it80.9%−1.224% to convertField goalTheir call82.1%88% to makePunt74.0%−8.1average punt
- Q4 4:01GT 4th & 3 at GT 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snapGo for it84.8%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 4:49GT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.9%97% to makeGo for two40.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:04GT Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.4%97% to makeGo for two54.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:26WAKE Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call35.9%97% to makeGo for two35.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:26WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call14.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two14.4%45% to convert
- Q4 1:25GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−0.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0039% → 39%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
61.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 2 yds to the GT 21Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+11
61.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 11 yds to the GT 32Similar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
61.5%
David Shanahan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2FG14 plays · 72 yds · 6:2962% → 62%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
61.5%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 11 yds to the WAKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+6
61.5%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Taylor Morin for 6 yds to the WAKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
61.6%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Kyle Kennard for a loss of 6 yards to the WAKE 40 Mitch Griffis fumbled, recovered by GT Daylon Gordon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3538% → 41%
Q1 7:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+38
62.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Luke Benson for 38 yds to the WAKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4DOWNS12 plays · 49 yds · 4:3959% → 59%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
59.6%
Demond Claiborne run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+13
59.1%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Taylor Morin for 13 yds to the GT 41Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+8
59.9%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Taylor Morin for 8 yds to the GT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+7
60.3%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 7 yds to the GT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5INT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0242% → 43%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+14
58.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for 14 yds to the GT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 10 yds · 1:4558% → 56%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.7%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 11 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-1
57.2%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Kyle Kennard for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 35Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
56.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Rodney Shelley at the GT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7TD8 plays · 83 yds · 3:0943% → 54%
Q2 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+31
57.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Avery Boyd for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+14
56.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Abdul Janneh for 14 yds to the WAKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+33
46.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Abdul Janneh for 33 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8INT7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
45.5%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds to the WAKE 33Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+7
46.1%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 7 yds to the WAKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-5
45.7%
PENALTY Wake False Start (Williams,Ke'Shawn) 5 yards from Wake44 to Wake39. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2656% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10FG4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5459% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:3637% → 36%
Q2 3:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-8
36.6%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Paul Moala for a loss of 8 yards to the WAKE 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12FG7 plays · 7 yds · 2:2166% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13END OF HALF4 plays · 30 yds · 0:1031% → 31%
WAKEDrive 14TD13 plays · 74 yds · 4:3429% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
29.7%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Kyle Kennard for a loss of 6 yards to the WAKE 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+12
28.9%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 12 yds to the WAKE 41Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
36.6%
Demond Claiborne run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 41 yds · 3:5365% → 69%
Q3 10:18
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+10
35.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Dylan Leonard for 10 yds to the GT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16DOWNS6 plays · 31 yds · 2:3731% → 29%
Q3 6:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+20
30.7%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Taylor Morin for 20 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17DOWNS8 plays · 16 yds · 3:5874% → 77%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
26.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Jr. Eric Singleton for 5 yds to the WAKE 46Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+10
24.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Jr. Eric Singleton for 10 yds to the WAKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
20.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 2 yds to the WAKE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18FUMBLE1 play · -3 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
25.4%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Andre White Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the WAKE 26 Mitch Griffis fumbled, recovered by GT Zeek Biggers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19FG8 plays · 16 yds · 3:5480% → 94%
WAKEDrive 20TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2115% → 33%
Q4 10:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
14.8%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 9 yds to the WAKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
15.4%
Mitch Griffis sacked by K.J. Wallace for a loss of 5 yards to the WAKE 32 Mitch Griffis fumbled, recovered by GT Demond Claiborne , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+9
14.1%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Taylor Morin for 9 yds to the WAKE 41Similar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
18.9%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Justice Ellison for 8 yds to the GT 18Similar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
32.8%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 16 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2583% → 83%
Q4 4:01
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
17.2%
David Shanahan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22INT6 plays · 44 yds · 1:4329% → 31%
GTDrive 23TD6 plays · 68 yds · 0:5388% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24INT7 plays · 47 yds · 1:132% → 3%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
2.3%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Kyle Kennard for a loss of 4 yards to the WAKE 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:26
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Wesley Grimes for 16 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+14.8
TD · Q2 8:04
Haynes King pass complete to Abdul Janneh for 33 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
-8.7
FG · Q4 10:47
Aidan Birr 27 yd FG GOOD
-8.3