Try the model
BC

Boston College 28 at Louisville 56

LOU
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:02 · Brock Domann run for 1 yd to the BC 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Home team on offense+35.7Pregame prior+4.2Score differential+27.0Blowout margin+13.7Garbage-time factor+12.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:12: Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 45 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +4.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:38: Thomas Castellanos run for 39 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +5.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:19: Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:33: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 30 yds for a TD — BC win probability +4.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:08: Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 42 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:09BC 4th & 2 at LOU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30BC 4th & 9 at BC 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:22BC 4th & 14 at BC 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:53BC 4th & 5 at BC 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:33BC 4th & 9 at LOU 30, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:02LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 45, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:21BC 4th & 9 at BC 4, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:46BC 4th & 16 at LOU 16, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:28LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 25, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:46LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 48, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:39BC 4th & 5 at LOU 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:02LOU 4th & 1 at BC 46, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:47LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:21LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:12LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:43LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:38BC Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:19LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:33BC Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:08LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 14:46LOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 12:53BC Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 10:04LOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 14:33BC Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:5018% → 19%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 12 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
82.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 9 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
81.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
81.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
50
0
81.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
50
+6
81.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+2
81.4%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 2 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
81.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the LOU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 2:1882% → 82%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
81.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 39Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-6
81.2%
Jack Plummer sacked by Neto Okpala for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 33Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 18
OWN 33
+15
80.8%
Boston College Penalty, Personal Foul (Khari Johnson) to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
81.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+33
82.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 33 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1618% → 18%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
81.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
81.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 26Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
82.0%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the LOU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 5:0782% → 85%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
82.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+10
82.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
82.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
82.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+32
81.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 32 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
82.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+2
82.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+3
82.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
82.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5316% → 16%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.2%
Alex Broome run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
84.3%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 11 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
83.8%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 30Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 17
OWN 30
0
84.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+3
84.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
84.4%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the LOU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:0185% → 90%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
85.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
85.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the LOU 37Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
85.4%
Jack Plummer run for 4 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
85.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 14 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
90.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 45 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1810% → 9%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.8%
Alex Broome run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
90.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 1 yd to the BC 30Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
90.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
90.7%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the LOU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:0391% → 95%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
90.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-2
91.1%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 37Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+12
90.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 12 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
91.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
91.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 4 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+27
91.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 27 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
92.9%
(09:27) PLUMMER, Jack pass to the left incomplete intended for BELL, Chris thrown to the BC4, clock 09:25. PENALTY BC Pass Interference on JACKSON, Amari enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the BC5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
93.0%
Maurice Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 9Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.3%
Jack Plummer run for 9 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:044% → 8%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
96.1%
Alex Broome run for 6 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
96.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 9 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
97.1%
Alex Broome run for 3 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
97.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+17
97.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 17 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
91.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 39 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 2:1194% → 98%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
93.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 47Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+48
94.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 48 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
94.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the BC 2Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:442% → 6%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for 11 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
97.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 21 yds to the LOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Alex Broome for 4 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+8
97.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaden Williams for 8 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
97.6%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LOU 36Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
97.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+4
97.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 4 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+2
98.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 2 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+30
94.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 30 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:2496% → 98%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
95.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 42 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
96.0%
Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BC 42Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 19
OPP 42
+42
98.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 42 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.4%
(00:01) [NHSG] Kneel down by BC at BC33 (team loss of 4).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
98.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 75 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:521% → 1%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 15 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
98.9%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass to the right incomplete intended for BOND, Lewis thrown to the BC38, clock 14:20. PENALTY LOU Roughing the Passer on HERRON, Stephen enforced 15 yards from the BC40 to the LOU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
98.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 12 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
98.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 10 yds to the LOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
98.9%
Alex Broome run for 1 yd to the LOU 22Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+22
98.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 22 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4399% → 99%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 3 yds to the LOU 40Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
99.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 3 yds to the LOU 43Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+2
99.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Brock Travelstead punt for 52 yds, downed at the BC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:271% → 1%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
99.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 4Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
99.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
99.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 9
OWN 4
0
99.2%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 51 yds, downed at the LOU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 55 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:091% → 0%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+36
99.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 36 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
99.4%
(09:00) QB Keeper CASTELLANOS, Thomas rush to the left for no gain to the LOU30 (ALDERMAN, Jaylin), clock 08:58. PENALTY BC Holding on TAYLOR, Logan enforced 10 yards from the LOU30 to the LOU40 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+38
99.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 38 yds to the LOU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for no gain to the LOU 2Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.3%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the LOU 2Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-9
99.3%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Jaylin Alderman for a loss of 9 yards to the LOU 11Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
99.6%
Boston College Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the LOU 16Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
-4
99.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.6%
Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the LOU 21Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-10
99.6%
(05:00) TURNER, Maurice rush to the right for no gain to the LOU21 (OKPALA, Neto), clock 04:52. PENALTY LOU Holding on LIFSON, Josh enforced 10 yards from the LOU21 to the LOU11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+5
99.6%
(04:33) PLUMMER, Jack pass deep to the right intercepted by WASHINGTON, Alex at the LOU48 intended for THRASH, Jamari. Washington return for 0 yards to the LOU48, End of Play, clock 04:28. PENALTY BC Offsides on ROOKS, George enforced 5 yards from the LOU11 to the LOU16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 14
OWN 16
-1
99.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 15Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+10
99.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 10 yds to the LOU 25Similar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Brock Travelstead punt for 47 yds, downed at the BC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 7 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+3
99.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 5 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+21
99.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 21 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
99.8%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 37Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+26
99.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 26 yds to the LOU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 11 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:43100% → 100%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 41Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
99.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
99.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the LOU 49Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-1
99.8%
Jack Plummer sacked by Sione Hala for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 48Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Brock Travelstead punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaden Williams at the BC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
99.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 7 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Emmett Morehead run for 4 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 5 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+13
99.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 5 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24END OF GAME
12 plays · 52 yds · 7:57100% → 100%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Brock Domann run for no gain to the BC 46Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
99.9%
Brock Domann run for 1 yd to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
99.9%
Maurice Turner run for 6 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.9%
Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
99.9%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+6
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+2
100.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+11
100.0%
Brock Domann run for 11 yds to the BC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:38
Thomas Castellanos run for 39 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
-5.4
TD · Q2 14:12
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 45 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 0:33
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 30 yds for a TD
-4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com