2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreFAU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jarvis Green run for no gain to the CLEM 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 13:35: Nate Wiggins 46 Yd Interception Return (Robert Gunn III Kick) — FAU win probability +0.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 7:27: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 30 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III PAT MISSED) — CLEM win probability +0.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:20: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 7 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:19: Phil Mafah run for 19 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:25: Cade Klubnik run for 1 yd for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FAU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 11:19FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.5%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q1 11:19FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.5%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q1 5:17FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 26, down 13Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.6%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.8%average punt
- Q1 3:07CLEM 4th & 7 at FAU 14, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snapGo for it93.5%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call93.6%84% to makePunt92.6%−1.1average punt
- Q2 14:10FAU 4th & 12 at FAU 23, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q2 7:24FAU 4th & 19 at CLEM 29, down 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.511% to convertField goalTheir call1.7%58% to makePunt0.7%−1.0average punt
- Q2 2:35FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 34, down 34Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:53CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 28, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q2 0:27FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 41, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 13:48CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 28, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q3 12:46FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 29, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 12:18CLEM 4th & 10 at FAU 46, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.4%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q3 10:59FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 25, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 8:00FAU 4th & 21 at CLEM 39, down 34Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−0.19% to convertField goal0.4%−<0.136% to makePunt0.4%average punt
- Q3 6:34CLEM 4th & 1 at FAU 4, up 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%65% to convertField goal99.5%−0.293% to makePunt99.1%−0.6average punt
- Q3 4:18FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 18, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:07FAU 4th & 2 at CLEM 2, down 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%48% to convertField goal0.1%−0.194% to makePunt-0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 2:13CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 27, up 41Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 13:35CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:27CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:20CLEM Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:19CLEM Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:25CLEM Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:56CLEM Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:07FAU Touchdown, down 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:00CLEM Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:03FAU Touchdown, down 35 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1INT TD5 plays · 13 yds · 1:254% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 2:165% → 5%
Q1 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
95.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 5 yds to the FAU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+11
95.2%
punt for 39 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 11 yds to the CLEM 36Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+11
95.2%
Logan Lupo punt for 39 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 11 yds to the CLEM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD9 plays · 79 yds · 3:5295% → 96%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
95.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 5 yds to the CLEM 26Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+12
95.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 12 yds to the CLEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
95.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds to the CLEM 48Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+7
95.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 7 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+30
95.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 30 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 2:105% → 5%
CLEMDrive 5MISSED FG6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1096% → 95%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
95.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for no gain to the FAU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD4 plays · 26 yds · 1:4295% → 97%
FAUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 2:103% → 3%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.6%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Hinton,Dorian) 5 yards from FAU25 to FAU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-10
96.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Thompson,Casey pass complete short left to Lewis,Kobe for 10 yards to the FAU31 (Mickens,R.J.) PENALTY FAU Holding (Bell,Kamaar) 10 yards from FAU21 to FAU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+3
96.7%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 3 yds to the FAU 14Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
96.8%
Logan Lupo punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Brown at the CLEM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9TD6 plays · 63 yds · 1:5197% → 98%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
96.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Klubnik,Cade rush left for 0 yards to the FAU44 (Jerrels,Jarrett) PENALTY CLEM Holding (Leigh,Tristan) 10 yards from FAU44 to CLEM46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+7
96.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for 7 yds to the FAU 47Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+28
96.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 28 yds to the FAU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10MISSED FG11 plays · 44 yds · 4:492% → 1%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
98.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 2 yds Jayshon Platt fumbled, recovered by FAUSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+19
98.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 19 yds to the FAU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+7
98.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Zeke Moore for 7 yds to the CLEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
98.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 5 yds to the CLEM 35Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-9
98.2%
Daniel Richardson sacked by T.J. Parker for a loss of 9 yards to the CLEM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD10 plays · 71 yds · 3:5999% → 99%
Q2 7:24
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+23
98.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 23 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
98.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 8 yds to the FAU 37Similar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
98.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Klubnik,Cade pass incomplete deep left to Turner,Cole PENALTY FAU Pass Interference (Hill,Daedae) 15 yards from FAU33 to FAU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q2 2:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Logan Lupo punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Misun Kelley at the CLEM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4299% → 99%
FAUDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 10 yds · 1:261% → 0%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
99.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 9 yds to the FAU 40Similar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
99.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 7 yds to the FAU 49Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+1
99.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 2
50
-9
99.4%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Jalyn Phillips for a loss of 9 yards to the FAU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 2 yds to the CLEM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:021% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:190% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20INT7 plays · 1 yds · 2:590% → 0%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
99.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 12 yds to the CLEM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-5
99.5%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Maranges,Federico) 5 yards from CLEM29 to CLEM34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 16
OPP 34
-10
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Richardson,Daniel pass incomplete short right QB hurried by Davis,Tyler PENALTY FAU Holding (Neal,Chaz) 10 yards from CLEM34 to CLEM44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 26
OPP 44
+3
99.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 3 yds to the CLEM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 2:160% → 0%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+14
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Richardson,Daniel pass incomplete deep middle to Alexander,BJ PENALTY CLEM Pass Interference (Pride Jr.,Toriano) 14 yards from FAU04 to FAU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+1
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 1 yd to the FAU 18Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+44
99.8%
Logan Lupo punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FAU 26 , Tyler Brown returns for 44 yds to the FAU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23TD6 plays · 26 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
FAUDrive 24TD17 plays · 75 yds · 5:490% → 0%
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 13 yds to the FAU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 5 yds to the FAU 43Similar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 9 yds to the CLEM 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 2 yds to the CLEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the CLEM 24Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 8 yds to the CLEM 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+6
99.8%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the CLEM 2 for a 1ST down Clemson Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Sherrod Covil Jr.) to the CLEM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Josh Sapp for 4 yds to the CLEM 24Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+27
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Troy Stellato for 12 yds to the FAU 36 for a 1ST down Florida Atlantic Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Dwight Toombs) to the FAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+14
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Jay Haynes for 14 yds to the FAU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Hamp Greene for 5 yds to the FAU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26FUMBLE16 plays · 60 yds · 4:090% → 0%
Q4 7:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the FAU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 3 yds to the FAU 40Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+12
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 12 yds to the CLEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Wyatt Sullivan for 6 yds to the CLEM 42Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+7
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the CLEM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
99.9%
Keyvon Walker run for 4 yds to the CLEM 20 Keyvon Walker fumbled, recovered by FAU Zaire PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 28TD4 plays · 45 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:19
Phil Mafah run for 19 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q1 1:20
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 7 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q2 3:25
Cade Klubnik run for 1 yd for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK)
+0.5