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JMU

James Madison 36 at Virginia 35

UVA
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:34 · Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the JMU 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense+13.3Pregame prior−1.3Garbage-time factor+6.6Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:49: Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 75 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +14.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:07: Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +17.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  3. TD · Q3 0:16: Mike Hollins run for 9 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +15.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:34: Ty Son Lawton run for 27 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — JMU win probability +19.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:55: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — JMU win probability +57.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9JMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q2 4:58UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 3:12JMU 4th & 16 at JMU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:13UVA 4th & 25 at UVA 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:01JMU 4th & 5 at UVA 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53UVA 4th & 19 at UVA 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:19JMU 4th & 9 at JMU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:26UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 37, down 10
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:47JMU 4th & 10 at UVA 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:42JMU 4th & 1 at JMU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.8%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:40JMU 4th & 4 at JMU 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:46JMU 4th & 7 at UVA 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:36UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−4.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:03JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:06UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:34UVA 4th & 1 at JMU 45, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−8.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−5.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:27UVA 4th & 9 at JMU 43, up 5
    Close callPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:26UVA 4th & 20 at UVA 15, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5JMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 9:59JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:06UVA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:02UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:49UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:29UVA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:07JMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:16UVA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:34JMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.9 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.1%−1.9
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:55JMU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:4948% → 47%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
47.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 12 yds to the UVA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
48.1%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 32Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
47.9%
Anthony Colandrea run for 4 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+3
47.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 3 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 3
OWN 39
-5
47.2%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Byrne,Luke) 5 yards from UVA39 to UVA34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
46.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:4655% → 52%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
45.2%
James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the JMU 20Similar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 19
OWN 20
+3
45.2%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the JMU 23Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 16
OWN 23
0
45.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Zach HortonSimilar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 16
OWN 23
0
46.3%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the JMU 23Similar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
47.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 43 yds , Ethan Davies returns for no gain to the UVA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0159% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.6%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMU 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
40.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Taji Hudson for 7 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
41.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 15 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
40.9%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the JMU 43Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+16
41.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 16 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+32
40.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Taji Hudson for 32 yds to the UVA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
40.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the UVA 8Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
40.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds to the UVA 4Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
39.8%
Taji Hudson pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 4 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT TD
7 plays · -15 yds · 2:4640% → 37%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
40.4%
Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UVA 15Similar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 18
OWN 15
+5
40.3%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the UVA 20Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+2
40.3%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UVA 22Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 11
OWN 22
-10
40.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony rush right for 9 yards gain to the UVA31, out of bounds at UVA31 PENALTY UVA Holding (Stevens,Brian) 10 yards from UVA22 to UVA12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 21
OWN 12
+4
40.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for 4 yds to the UVA 8 Anthony Colandrea fumbled, recovered by UVA Anthony ColandreaSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 25
OWN 8
0
37.2%
Daniel Sparks punt blocked by Aiden Fisher blocked by Aiden Fisher for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0737% → 40%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
37.4%
Perris Jones run for 7 yds to the UVA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
39.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 63 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:0560% → 62%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
39.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 40 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
38.8%
Kaelon Black run for 7 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+3
38.7%
Omarion Dollison run for 3 yds to the UVA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
38.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Phoenix SprolesSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
38.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+7
39.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the UVA 20Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
38.0%
Camden Wise 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:0837% → 36%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.2%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
37.3%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 28Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
36.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 14 yds to the UVA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
37.8%
Perris Jones run for 4 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
38.0%
Perris Jones run for 4 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-9
36.9%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Jalen Green for a loss of 9 yards to the UVA 33 Anthony Colandrea fumbled, recovered by UVA Ty Furnish , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 19
OWN 33
0
36.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3463% → 63%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
36.7%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMU 29Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+2
37.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Taji Hudson for 2 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
37.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Reggie BrownSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
37.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5336% → 35%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
36.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 8 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
36.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 1 yd to the UVA 40Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
36.6%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+10
34.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 43 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 10 yds to the JMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:3964% → 67%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
35.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Reggie BrownSimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+28
36.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 28 yds to the UVA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
35.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan rush left for 22 yards gain to the UVA20 (Sanker,Jonas), out of bounds PENALTY JMU Holding (Naotala,Seth) 10 yards from UVA42 to JMU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+2
35.5%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 18
50
+8
35.8%
Kaelon Black run for 8 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+5
35.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 5 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 5
OPP 37
-5
35.8%
PENALTY JMU Delay Of Game (McCloud,Jordan) 5 yards from UVA37 to UVA42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
32.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:1033% → 49%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
32.3%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+15
31.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 15 yds to the UVA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+32
33.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to JR Wilson for 32 yds to the JMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
35.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Grant Misch for 4 yds to the JMU 20Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+8
35.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Perris Jones for 8 yds to the JMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
35.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the JMU 4Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
48.9%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 1:0257% → 57%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
43.4%
Latrele Palmer run for 6 yds to the JMU 18Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+4
42.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the JMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
55.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 75 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0745% → 43%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
54.8%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the JMU 21Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+5
55.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 5 yds to the JMU 26Similar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
54.9%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMU 27Similar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+4
57.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 4 yds to the JMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15TD
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1360% → 77%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
60.0%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the JMU 22Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+7
60.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 7 yds to the JMU 15Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+4
58.7%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the JMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
60.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass incomplete short right to Jones,Perris PENALTY JMU Roughing The Passer (Kromah,Jamree) 6 yards from JMU11 to JMU05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
60.0%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the JMU 3Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.9%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4925% → 24%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 6 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
73.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Maxwell MossSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
74.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Reggie BrownSimilar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
76.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:3176% → 79%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
76.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Suderian Harrison for no gain to the UVA 29Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
76.0%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+25
74.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 25 yds to the JMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2324% → 22%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
76.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Taji Hudson for 5 yds to the JMU 35Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+15
75.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass incomplete short left to Black,Kaelon broken up by King,Coen PENALTY UVA Roughing The Passer (Smiley III,Ben) 15 yards from JMU35 to JMU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
50
+3
74.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the UVA 47Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
74.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Taji HudsonSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
74.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Phoenix SprolesSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
77.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:1078% → 78%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
78.0%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 7Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-5
77.9%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Jamree Kromah for a loss of 5 yards to the UVA 2Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 15
OWN 2
+1
77.6%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the UVA 1Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 16
OWN 1
+8
77.5%
Daniel Sparks punt for 52 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 8 yds to the UVA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:2923% → 43%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
77.0%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Kam Butler for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 46Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+7
77.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 7 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+6
77.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 6 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
75.7%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+24
75.0%
Ty Son Lawton run for 24 yds to the UVA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
57.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5166% → 86%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+60
66.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Perris Jones for 60 yds to the JMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
70.5%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the JMU 9Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
86.3%
Mike Hollins run for 9 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5716% → 14%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the JMU 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
83.9%
PENALTY JMU False Start (Morris,Tanner) 5 yards from JMU27 to JMU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
84.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Zach HortonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+3
85.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 3 yds to the JMU 25Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 45 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 1 yd to the UVA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5786% → 86%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
85.8%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
86.4%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-7
86.1%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Chris Chukwuneke for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 31Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
85.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 69 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3213% → 36%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
86.8%
Kaelon Black run for 7 yds to the JMU 27Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
85.3%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the JMU 27Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
86.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 15 yds to the JMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
84.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 6 yds to the JMU 48Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
84.5%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+9
83.9%
Latrele Palmer run for 9 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
83.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for 13 yds to the UVA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
64.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 27 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 5:0778% → 88%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.2%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Christ,Jimmy) 5 yards from UVA25 to UVA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
77.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 6 yds to the UVA 26Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
77.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 20 yds to the UVA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
80.9%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the UVA 46Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
80.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 9 yds to the JMU 45Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
80.3%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the JMU 45Similar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
78.6%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the JMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
81.3%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the JMU 41Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-5
81.2%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Furnish,Ty) 5 yards from JMU41 to JMU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+3
80.4%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the JMU 43Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
79.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Perris JonesSimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
87.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 2:3218% → 81%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the JMU 20Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+24
82.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 24 yds to the JMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
78.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 4
50
+15
76.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass incomplete short middle QB hurried by Carter,Jahmeer PENALTY UVA Personal Foul (Faumui,Aaron) 15 yards from JMU50 to UVA35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
74.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Black,Kaelon rush middle for 14 yards gain to the UVA21 (Bracey,Stevie; King,Coen) PENALTY JMU Holding (Potts,Cole) 10 yards from UVA35 to UVA45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 20
OPP 45
0
78.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Kaelon BlackSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+15
79.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 15 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+15
76.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass incomplete deep left to Sarratt,Elijah broken up by Sanker,Jonas PENALTY UVA Pass Interference (Sanker,Jonas) 15 yards from UVA30 to UVA15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
71.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 5 yds to the UVA 10Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
76.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Reggie BrownSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
19.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:2943% → 36%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
43.1%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Jamree Kromah for a loss of 10 yards to the UVA 15Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
40.6%
Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
39.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
35.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
5.1%
J. McCloud takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:55
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-57.6
TD · Q4 8:34
Ty Son Lawton run for 27 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-19.3
TD · Q3 2:07
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)
-17.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com