Try the model
CIN

Cincinnati 27 at Pittsburgh 21

PITT
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:18 · Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Home team on offense−19.2Pregame prior+2.3Score differential−4.1Garbage-time factor−9.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:20: Corey Kiner run for 7 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +5.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:05: Carter Brown 47 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +6.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:17: Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 21 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +16.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:48: Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 9 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +16.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:53: Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 16 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +20.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:30PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:17PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:57CIN 4th & 4 at PITT 5, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:19CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:27PITT 4th & 11 at CIN 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:20PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:16PITT 4th & 12 at CIN 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:51CIN 4th & 3 at PITT 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:05CIN 4th & 11 at PITT 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:36CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 32, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−3.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:09PITT 4th & 19 at CIN 43, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−2.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:54CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 16, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:48PITT 4th & 9 at CIN 9, down 20
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    -1.8%−8.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:38CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 49, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:53CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.4%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:18CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:09PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:10PITT 4th & 9 at CIN 28, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−9.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:06CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:17PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:20CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:17CIN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:48PITT Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:53PITT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3069% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Caleb Junko punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:2431% → 32%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
69.1%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 1 yd to the CIN 37Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+40
69.1%
Aaron Turner run for 25 yds to the PITT 38 for a 1ST down Pittsburgh Penalty, Personal Foul (Phillip O'Brien Jr.) to the PITT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
69.1%
Corey Kiner run for 11 yds to the PITT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
68.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 12 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4968% → 67%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
68.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for no gain to the PITT 29Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
68.4%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Eric Phillips for a loss of 7 yards to the PITT 22Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
67.2%
Caleb Junko punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4FG
5 plays · 74 yds · 2:2033% → 34%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+68
67.4%
Corey Kiner run for 68 yds to the PITT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
67.0%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the PITT 11Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
67.0%
Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the PITT 4Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-1
67.1%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 5Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
65.6%
Carter Brown 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4066% → 68%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
65.9%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PITT 20Similar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
65.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
65.8%
Phil Jurkovec run for 6 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
65.6%
Cincinnati Penalty, Roughing the Passer on PACE, Deshawn enforced (Deshawn Pace) to the CIN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
66.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 11 yds to the CIN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
66.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the CIN 15Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-5
66.6%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CIN 20Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
66.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+17
66.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 17 yds to the CIN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
65.3%
Daniel Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 6Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
65.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the CIN 5Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 5 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5833% → 33%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 25Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
66.8%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
67.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7MISSED FG
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:5267% → 66%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+38
66.7%
C'Bo Flemister run for 38 yds to the CIN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
68.0%
C'Bo Flemister run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 26Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+2
67.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
67.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:27
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+42
65.7%
Ben Sauls 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:0734% → 43%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
65.6%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 25Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+20
65.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 20 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
64.7%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
64.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+5
64.4%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Offsides (Nate Temple) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
50
+13
63.7%
Corey Kiner run for 13 yds to the PITT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
62.9%
Braden Smith pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 30 yds to the PITT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
56.9%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 5:0458% → 54%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.0%
Daniel Carter run for 6 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
58.0%
Daniel Carter run for 10 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
58.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
59.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the PITT 45Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+4
58.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 4 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+11
58.6%
Daniel Carter run for 11 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
59.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 42Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
59.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
58.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
53.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 41 yds, downed at the CIN 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10FG
19 plays · 69 yds · 8:1145% → 66%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
55.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 3 yds to the CIN 4Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+11
55.4%
Corey Kiner run for 11 yds to the CIN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
54.5%
Dee Wiggins run for 13 yds to the CIN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
53.8%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the CIN 28Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
54.4%
Emory Jones run for 4 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+10
53.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 10 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
52.8%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the CIN 44Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
52.9%
Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
52.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
52.3%
Corey Kiner run for 9 yds to the PITT 36Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 1
OPP 36
-2
52.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 38Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
42.9%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+9
44.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for 9 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
42.4%
Aaron Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 32Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+2
43.2%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
40.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for no gain to the PITT 30Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+47
33.8%
Carter Brown 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
40.9%
[SG] Kneel down by JURKOVEC, Phil at PIT38 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:2461% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
38.8%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
38.5%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the CIN 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+6
39.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 6 yds to the CIN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
38.5%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-4
38.5%
Emory Jones sacked by Devin Danielson for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+2
39.5%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
35.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 38 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the PITT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
37.6%
Phil Jurkovec run for 6 yds to the PITT 36 Phil Jurkovec fumbled, recovered by CIN Taj WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:4471% → 88%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
29.2%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+14
29.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 14 yds to the PITT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
28.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Aaron Turner for 1 yd to the PITT 21Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
11.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 21 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 5:0119% → 10%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
18.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
18.6%
Phil Jurkovec run for 10 yds to the PITT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
19.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
18.7%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Jowon Briggs for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 31Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+15
18.6%
JURKOVEC, Phil pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MEANS, Bub broken up by YOUNG, Jordan at the CIN40. PENALTY CIN Personal Foul on GRZESIAK, Daniel enforced 15 yards from the PIT31 to the PIT46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
20.2%
Daniel Carter run for 1 yd to the PITT 47Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+19
20.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 19 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
21.3%
Daniel Carter run for no gain to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
21.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-9
20.5%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Daniel Grzesiak and Malik Vann for a loss of 9 yards to the CIN 43Similar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
9.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:1593% → 94%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
7.5%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 22Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
7.5%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 23Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-7
7.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Corey Kiner for a loss of 7 yards to the CIN 16Similar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
5.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:068% → 24%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
8.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
8.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+15
8.2%
JURKOVEC, Phil pass deep to the right incomplete intended for REYNOLDS, Daejon thrown to the CIN20. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on HARRIS, Justin enforced 15 yards to the CIN33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
9.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Karter Johnson for 10 yds to the CIN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
9.1%
JURKOVEC, Phil pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Kenny thrown to the CIN0. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on HARRIS, Justin enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the CIN8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
9.1%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Dontay Corleone for a loss of 10 yards to the CIN 18Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+9
7.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 9 yds to the CIN 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
7.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
24.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 9 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:1084% → 87%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
16.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 17 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
15.3%
Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 2 yds to the CIN 44Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
15.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
15.5%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
13.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by M.J. Devonshire at the PITT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 0:4521% → 46%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+60
20.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 60 yds to the CIN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
25.6%
JURKOVEC, Phil pass to the right incomplete intended for BARTHOLOMEW, Gavin thrown to the CIN12. PENALTY CIN Holding on JONES, Dorian enforced 10 yards from the CIN26 to the CIN16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
25.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
25.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
45.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 16 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 4:3568% → 77%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.9%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 27Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
31.6%
Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 7 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
31.0%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
32.3%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
30.9%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
29.0%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
29.4%
Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the CIN 44Similar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
31.5%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Jowon Briggs) to the CIN 39Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
23.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:0932% → 27%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
32.4%
JURKOVEC, Phil pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MEANS, Bub thrown to the PIT35; QB hurried by DINGLE, Jack. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on HARRIS, Justin enforced 15 yards to the PIT29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
33.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
32.3%
Phil Jurkovec run for 2 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
31.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 8
OWN 31
-5
29.8%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the PITT 26Similar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
27.0%
Caleb Junko punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22INT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:1879% → 78%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
21.1%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 22Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-3
21.1%
Emory Jones sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 19Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 13
OWN 19
0
22.0%
Emory Jones pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3433% → 26%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
33.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+14
32.4%
Phil Jurkovec run for 14 yds to the CIN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
35.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the CIN 28Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
35.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
32.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 9
OPP 28
-11
25.5%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Jack Dingle for a loss of 11 yards to the CIN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:1086% → 96%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
14.3%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
11.1%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
11.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
50
+1
10.3%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the PITT 49Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+6
10.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 6 yds to the PITT 43Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+10
4.8%
Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
4.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by JONES, Emory at PIT34 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
4.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by JONES, Emory at PIT35 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:53
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 16 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+20.1
TD · Q4 14:48
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 9 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q3 9:17
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 21 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
-16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com