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USM

Southern Miss 13 at Florida State 66

FSU
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:36 · Bryce Lofton punt for 32 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 19 yds to the USM 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior+28.6Home team on offense+31.3Score differential+25.1Blowout margin+13.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.4Garbage-time factor+6.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:44: Trey Benson run for 19 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:28: Andrew Stein 30 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +0.5 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:42: Trey Benson run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:36: Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Ryan Fitzgerald 35 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:04USM 4th & 15 at USM 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:07USM 4th & 3 at FSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:00FSU 4th & 5 at USM 48, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:00FSU 4th & 10 at USM 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:44FSU 4th & 1 at USM 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:54FSU 4th & 4 at USM 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.8%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:28USM 4th & 12 at FSU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:51USM 4th & 16 at USM 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:33USM 4th & 9 at USM 15, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:36FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 49, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00FSU 4th & 15 at USM 17, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:59USM 4th & 10 at USM 13, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:36USM 4th & 17 at USM 29, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:17USM 4th & 9 at USM 42, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:32USM 4th & 6 at FSU 23, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:54FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 43, up 53
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:29FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:44FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:42FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:36FSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:06FSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:17FSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:26FSU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:41USM Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:09FSU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:00FSU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:2197% → 97%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
97.0%
Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FSU 29Similar
Q1 14:37
1ST & 5
OWN 29
+20
97.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 20 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
96.9%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
96.9%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
96.8%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+23
96.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Deuce Spann for 23 yds to the USM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
96.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the USM 15Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
96.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USM 10Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
96.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Darion Williamson for 10 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:223% → 3%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.7%
Southern Miss Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USM 20Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
96.7%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
96.7%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
96.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3197% → 96%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
96.6%
Rodney Hill run for 6 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-2
96.6%
Jordan Travis sacked by Kristin Booth and Jalen Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 47Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
96.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
96.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:034% → 4%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
96.4%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 10 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
96.3%
Florida State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Renardo Green) to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
96.3%
Billy Wiles sacked by Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 10 yards to the USM 35 Southern Miss Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Billy Wiles) to the USM 35Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 20
OWN 35
0
96.3%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Brandon HayesSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+17
96.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tyquan Henderson for 17 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+1
96.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 1 yd to the FSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:1596% → 97%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
96.3%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 7
50
+2
96.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 2 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+9
96.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 9 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
96.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
96.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Deuce SpannSimilar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
96.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Deuce SpannSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+11
95.8%
Jordan Travis run for 11 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
96.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 6 yds to the USM 22Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+2
95.9%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the USM 20Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
95.8%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the USM 19Similar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+19
96.6%
Trey Benson run for 19 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4497% → 96%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
96.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
96.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
96.6%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
96.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
96.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:264% → 5%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
96.2%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 25Similar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+1
96.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 26Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+15
96.2%
Florida State Penalty, Roughing Passer (Patrick Payton) to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
96.0%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 36Similar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+33
96.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 33 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
95.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+15
95.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 15 yds to the FSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
95.7%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FSU 16Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+2
95.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 14Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+1
95.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the FSU 13Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 12
OPP 13
0
95.6%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Avery WhiteSimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+30
95.1%
Andrew Stein 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:3195% → 97%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
95.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+12
94.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Darion Williamson for 12 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+34
95.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 34 yds to the USM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
95.2%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the USM 21Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+15
95.1%
Deuce Spann run for 15 yds to the USM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
95.0%
Southern Miss Penalty, Substitution Infraction (3 Yards) to the USM 3Similar
Q2 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.6%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:394% → 4%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.2%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Brandon HayesSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-3
96.2%
Billy Wiles sacked by Dennis Briggs Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 25Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 13
OWN 25
-3
96.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 22Similar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 16
OWN 22
+5
96.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 48 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 5 yds to the FSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:0796% → 98%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.4%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FSU 36Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
96.5%
Southern Miss Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (MJ Daniels) to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
96.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USM 44Similar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+8
96.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 8 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
96.6%
Florida State Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Darion Williamson) to the FSU 49Similar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 25
OWN 49
0
96.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 25
OWN 49
+11
96.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 11 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+34
96.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 34 yds to the USM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:373% → 3%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
97.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 15Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
97.0%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Frank Gore Jr.Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
97.0%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Justyn ReidSimilar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 9
OWN 15
-3
97.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds , Keon Coleman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12END OF HALF
12 plays · 39 yds · 2:2899% → 99%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.6%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
98.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaheim BellSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+5
98.6%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 5
OWN 49
+9
98.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 9 yds to the USM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
98.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 1 yd Winston Wright Jr. fumbled, recovered by FSU Kyle MorlockSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+29
98.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 29 yds to the USM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Hykeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
98.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Destyn HillSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-5
98.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for a loss of 5 yards to the USM 17Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 15
OPP 17
+35
99.4%
Ryan Fitzgerald 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
99.3%
Southern Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (-12 Yards) to the USM 13Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
98.2%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
97.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the USM 13Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
99.5%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q3 13:59
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
99.5%
Bryce Lofton punt for 32 yds, downed at the USM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 45 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.5%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+42
99.6%
Trey Benson run for 42 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:280% → 0%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Frank Gore Jr.Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-30
99.7%
Billy Wiles pass intercepted for a TD Jarrian Jones return for 30 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.7%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 7 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Brandon HayesSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-7
99.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 39 Southern Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USM 29Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Brandon HayesSimilar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 17
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Frank Gore Jr.Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+19
99.8%
Bryce Lofton punt for 32 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 19 yds to the USM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 42 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
16 plays · 89 yds · 5:340% → 0%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.9%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+10
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 10 yds to the USM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
99.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 13 yds to the USM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 12 yds to the USM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the USM 46Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 6
50
+10
99.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tyquan Henderson for 10 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 15 yds to the FSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Chandler PittmanSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
99.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Justyn Reid for 13 yds to the FSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Zay FranksSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 12 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 5:01100% → 100%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
99.8%
Rodney Hill run for 19 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Rodney Hill run for 1 yd to the FSU 37Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
99.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 7 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
99.9%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 7 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Rodney Hill run for 2 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+18
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Destyn Hill for 18 yds to the USM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
99.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 13 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
99.9%
Rodney Hill run for 3 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Vandrevious Jacobs for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 11 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 42Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Avery WhiteSimilar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Avery WhiteSimilar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 30 yds, downed at the FSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+34
99.9%
Brock Glenn run for 34 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
99.9%
Brock Glenn run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 40Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+40
99.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 5:130% → 0%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 24Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+21
100.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Antavious Willis for 21 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 14 yds to the FSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
100.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Antavious Willis for 14 yds to the FSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the FSU 23Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the FSU 23Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
100.0%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
100.0%
Andrew Stein 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
100.0%
CJ Campbell Jr. run for 9 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
100.0%
AJ Duffy run for 9 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-4
100.0%
AJ Duffy sacked by Jeremiah Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 43Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
100.0%
AJ Duffy sacked by Demeco Roland for 0 yards to the FSU 43Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, downed at the USM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 8 yds to the USM 22Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+1
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 23Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+10
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 10 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:42
Trey Benson run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q2 3:36
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+1.4
FG · Q2 0:00
Ryan Fitzgerald 35 yd FG GOOD
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com