2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadCHSO aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreCHSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:14 · Brian Cooey punt for 48 yds , Tyler Brown returns for 27 yds to the CHSO 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:35: Leon Thomas 67 Yd Interception Return (Sam Babbush Kick) — CHSO win probability +0.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:14: Phil Mafah run for 1 yd for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:51: Phil Mafah run for 5 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:39: Wade Woodaz 35 Yd Interception Return (Robert Gunn III Kick) — CLEM win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CHSO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:19: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 69 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CHSO made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 14:57CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:26CHSO 4th & 10 at CHSO 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 8:04CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:22CHSO 4th & 4 at CLEM 49, tiedClose callPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:14CHSO 4th & 17 at CHSO 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q2 7:01CHSO 4th & 6 at CLEM 28, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call2.1%−<0.160% to makePunt1.7%−0.4average punt
- Q2 5:37CLEM 4th & 25 at CLEM 10, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
- Q2 3:54CHSO 4th & 13 at CHSO 41, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q2 0:04CLEM 4th & 6 at CHSO 6, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.9%31% to convertField goalTheir call95.9%−<0.191% to makePunt94.9%−0.9average punt
- Q3 12:46CHSO 4th & 11 at CHSO 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.3%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q3 8:31CHSO 4th & 1 at CHSO 34, down 21Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 4:33CHSO 4th & 12 at CHSO 43, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:59CHSO 4th & 14 at CHSO 37, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 13:59CHSO 4th & 14 at CHSO 37, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:36CHSO 4th & 5 at CHSO 30, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 2:36CHSO 4th & 13 at CHSO 22, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 0:00CLEM 4th & 2 at CHSO 17, up 49Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−0.156% to convertField goal100.0%80% to makePunt99.7%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9CHSO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:05CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:00CHSO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.9%97% to makeGo for two0.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:35CHSO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.5%97% to makeGo for two1.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:14CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:27CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:51CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:39CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:19CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:18CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:20CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:18CLEM Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD12 plays · 68 yds · 3:52100% → 99%
Q1 14:57
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+8
99.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for 8 yds to the CLEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+14
99.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 14 yds to the CHSO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
99.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 9 yds to the CHSO 28Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+16
99.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for 16 yds to the CHSO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
99.6%
PENALTY CLEM False Start (Parks,Walker) 5 yards from CSU12 to CSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+7
99.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 7 yds to the CHSO 10Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
99.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 10 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 2PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:391% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3FUMBLE4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q1 8:04
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
99.3%
Cade Klubnik run for 3 yds to the CLEM 1 Cade Klubnik fumbled, recovered by CHSO Trayson FowlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 4TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 5PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.2%
Tony Bartalo pass complete to Landon Sauers for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6INT TD10 plays · 61 yds · 3:4799% → 99%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+17
99.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 17 yds to the CLEM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 8 yds to the CLEM 39Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+4
99.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 4 yds to the CLEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
99.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 11 yds to the CHSO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
99.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 10 yds to the CHSO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
99.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 2 yds to the CHSO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD9 plays · 57 yds · 2:1699% → 99%
CHSODrive 8PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:462% → 2%
CLEMDrive 9TD3 plays · 39 yds · 0:4798% → 99%
CHSODrive 10FG12 plays · 47 yds · 5:262% → 2%
Q2 12:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.6%
Tony Bartalo pass complete to Chylon Thomas for 12 yds to the CHSO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+23
98.5%
Tony Bartalo pass complete to Tyree Taylor for 23 yds to the CLEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
98.4%
Tony Bartalo sacked by Nate Wiggins for a loss of 8 yards to the CLEM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -15 yds · 1:2498% → 97%
Q2 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
97.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for 2 yds to the CLEM 25Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Clemson Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Cade Klubnik) to the CLEM 10Similar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+7
97.2%
Aidan Swanson punt for 53 yds , JD Moore returns for 7 yds to the CHSO 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 12PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:433% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13FG15 plays · 59 yds · 3:5097% → 97%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
97.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 6 yds to the CLEM 41Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+22
97.1%
Cade Klubnik run for 7 yds to the CHSO 49 for a 1ST down Charleston Southern Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Malik Barnes) to the CHSO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+10
96.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 10 yds to the CHSO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
96.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 2 yds to the CHSO 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 15PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 2:143% → 4%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Tony Bartalo pass complete to Chylon Thomas for no gain to the CHSO 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16TD5 plays · 54 yds · 1:5597% → 98%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
96.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Brannon Spector for 9 yds to the CHSO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 17INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 18PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:081% → 1%
CLEMDrive 19TD3 plays · 70 yds · 1:1299% → 100%
Q3 7:19
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+69
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 69 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 20PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q3 7:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
99.9%
Tony Bartalo pass complete to Davin Driskell for 13 yds to the CHSO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD10 plays · 91 yds · 4:15100% → 100%
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+7
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 7 yds to the CLEM 16Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+5
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 5 yds to the CLEM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 2 yds to the CLEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 14 yds to the CHSO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Josh Sapp for 25 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 22PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bartalo,Tony pass incomplete deep left to Jennings,Noah PENALTY CLEM Pass Interference (Lukus,Jeadyn) 15 yards from CSU26 to CSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Brian Cooey punt for 45 yds , Hamp Greene returns for 2 yds to the CLEM 20Similar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Brian Cooey punt for 45 yds , Hamp Greene returns for 2 yds to the CLEM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23TD12 plays · 90 yds · 5:39100% → 100%
Q4 13:59
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+9
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Banks Pope for 9 yds to the CLEM 18Similar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Troy Stellato for 18 yds to the CLEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Hampton Earle for 2 yds to the CHSO 49Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+12
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Hamp Greene for 12 yds to the CHSO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Troy Stellato for 7 yds to the CHSO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 24PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:440% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25TD5 plays · 63 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
100.0%
Paul Tyson pass complete to Olsen Patt-Henry for 12 yds to the CHSO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+24
100.0%
Paul Tyson pass complete to Clay Swinney for 24 yds to the CHSO 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Paul Tyson pass complete to Jay Haynes for 6 yds for a TD (Quinn Castner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 26PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
100.0%
PENALTY CSU Delay Of Game (Osbourne,Zolten ) 5 yards from CSU25 to CSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27END OF GAME5 plays · 46 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:51
Phil Mafah run for 5 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q3 10:39
Wade Woodaz 35 Yd Interception Return (Robert Gunn III Kick)
+1.3
TD · Q1 2:35
Leon Thomas 67 Yd Interception Return (Sam Babbush Kick)
-0.6