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MUR

Murray State 0 at Louisville 56

LOU
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2023 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:08 · Brock Travelstead punt for 55 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Pregame prior+47.0Home team on offense+1.8Score differential+0.3Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:06: Jamari Thrash run for 12 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — MUR win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:38: Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:37: Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 73 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:37: Jawhar Jordan run for 72 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:08: Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MUR made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 13:04MUR 4th & 1 at MUR 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54MUR 4th & 14 at MUR 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:03MUR 4th & 6 at LOU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:35MUR 4th & 10 at LOU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:21MUR 4th & 6 at MUR 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:37MUR 4th & 1 at MUR 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:10MUR 4th & 11 at MUR 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:20MUR 4th & 11 at MUR 24, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:57LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 31, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:36LOU 4th & 2 at MUR 24, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:32MUR 4th & 2 at MUR 33, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:28LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 49, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:44LOU 4th & 8 at MUR 34, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:05MUR 4th & 6 at MUR 29, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:46LOU 4th & 3 at MUR 38, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:13MUR 4th & 7 at MUR 40, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:06LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:38LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:37LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:37LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:08LOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:58LOU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55LOU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:44LOU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MURDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:561% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.4%
Kywon Morgan run for 5 yds to the MUR 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.4%
Kywon Morgan run for 3 yds to the MUR 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.4%
DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for 1 yd to the MUR 34Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Orion Phillips punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:5899% → 99%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
99.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 23Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the LOU 23Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+30
99.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 30 yds to the MUR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
99.3%
Louisville Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the LOU 48Similar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+8
99.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 8 yds to the MUR 44Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+32
99.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 32 yds to the MUR 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.2%
Jamari Thrash run for 12 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:121% → 1%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
99.2%
DJ Williams sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 5 yards to the MUR 8Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+4
99.2%
Kywon Morgan run for 4 yds to the MUR 12Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+2
99.2%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the MUR 14Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 9
OWN 14
-5
99.2%
Murray State Penalty, False Start (Chris Hill Jr.) to the MUR 9Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 14
OWN 9
0
99.1%
Orion Phillips punt for 43 yds, downed at the LOU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4699% → 99%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the MUR 49Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
99.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 2 yds to the MUR 47Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
99.1%
Louisville Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jack Plummer) to the LOU 45Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
98.9%
Brock Travelstead punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:051% → 1%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.9%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.9%
Cortezz Jones run for 5 yds to the MUR 25Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+23
99.0%
DJ Williams pass complete to Cortezz Jones for 23 yds to the MUR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.9%
Cortezz Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 8
50
+2
98.9%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
98.9%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
98.7%
Orion Phillips punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 3:2599% → 99%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
98.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+10
98.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the LOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
98.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
50
+4
98.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 4 yds to the MUR 46Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+15
98.8%
PLUMMER, Jack pass deep to the left incomplete intended for THRASH, Jamari broken up by REED, KaVan at the MUR5. PENALTY MUR Pass Interference on REED, KaVan enforced 15 yards to the MUR31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
98.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 10 yds to the MUR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
98.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the MUR 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
98.6%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+15
98.5%
PLUMMER, Jack pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUGGINS-BRUCE, Ahmari broken up by REED, KaVan at the MUR0. PENALTY MUR Pass Interference on REED, KaVan enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the MUR2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the MUR 1Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 5:031% → 2%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the MUR 30Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
98.8%
Cortezz Jones run for 4 yds to the MUR 34Similar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
98.8%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the MUR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.8%
Q'Daryius Jennings run for 6 yds to the MUR 42Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
98.7%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
98.8%
DJ Williams run for 13 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.7%
Cortezz Jones run for no gain to the LOU 45Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
98.7%
Murray State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 15
50
+5
98.8%
DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for 5 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
98.8%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
98.5%
Orion Phillips punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8INT
2 plays · 38 yds · 0:3799% → 99%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+38
98.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 38 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.7%
Jack Plummer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:372% → 2%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
98.5%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-2
98.5%
Kywon Morgan run for a loss of 2 yards to the MUR 15Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+6
98.5%
DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 6 yds to the MUR 21Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
98.4%
Orion Phillips punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:4498% → 99%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
98.4%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 27 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by LOU Jawhar JordanSimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+73
99.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 73 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:271% → 1%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.1%
Kywon Morgan run for 6 yds to the MUR 41Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
99.0%
Kywon Morgan run for 3 yds to the MUR 44Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
99.0%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
99.1%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the MUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
99.3%
Kylan Galbreath run for a loss of 1 yard to the MUR 45Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
99.3%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
99.4%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Orion Phillips punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:3399% → 100%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 8 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+72
99.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 72 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Kywon Morgan run for 2 yds to the MUR 27Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
99.8%
QB Keeper WILLIAMS, DJ rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the MUR33 (KELLY, Cam'Ron). PENALTY MUR Holding on FRYE, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the MUR27 to the MUR17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+7
99.8%
DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for 7 yds to the MUR 24Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.8%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Orion Phillips punt for 46 yds , returns for no gain to the LOU 10Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
99.8%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LOU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14INT
10 plays · 39 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+6
99.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the LOU 11Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
99.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the LOU 13Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+7
99.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 7 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+25
99.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 25 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
99.8%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LOU 40Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+4
99.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 4 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+5
99.8%
PLUMMER, Jack pass short up the middle complete for 31 yards to GUERENDO, Isaac caught at the LOU48 and advanced to the MUR25 (ALBERTY, Charles). PENALTY Before the snap, MUR Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the LOU44 to the LOU49. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Jack Plummer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
99.8%
JORDAN, Jawhar rush to the left for a gain of 75 yards to the MUR0, TOUCHDOWN LOU, score nullified by penalty, clock 14:48 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY LOU Holding on HUDSON, Bryan enforced 9 yards from the LOU25 to the LOU16 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 19
OWN 16
-3
99.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 13Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
99.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 22
OWN 13
-10
99.8%
Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Gonzalez) to the LOU 20Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+11
99.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 11 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Brock Travelstead punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Michael Fox at the MUR 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 40 yds · 3:110% → 0%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
99.8%
Kywon Morgan run for 11 yds to the MUR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.8%
Kywon Morgan run for 6 yds to the MUR 36Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+13
99.8%
DJ Williams pass complete to Golden Eke for 13 yds to the MUR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
99.8%
DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for 13 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
99.8%
Kywon Morgan run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 40Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-1
99.8%
Parker Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 41 Parker Perry fumbled, recovered by LOU Devin NealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
99.8%
Jack Plummer run for 14 yds to the MUR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
99.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 20 yds to the MUR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
99.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the MUR 19Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
99.8%
Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the MUR 16Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+15
99.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 15 yds to the MUR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 18INT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Cortezz Jones run for 8 yds to the MUR 33Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
99.9%
Isaiah Hill run for 2 yds to the MUR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
99.9%
(06:03) JONES, Cortezz rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the MUR36 (QUINN, T.J.), clock 05:58. PENALTY MUR Holding on KOFOWO, Henry enforced 10 yards from the MUR35 to the MUR25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Eric Phoenix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Eric Phoenix pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 4:05100% → 100%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the MUR 49Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+17
99.9%
Brock Domann pass complete to Allan Houston Iii for 17 yds to the MUR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the MUR 25Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-3
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 3 yards to the MUR 28Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+4
99.9%
Brock Domann pass complete to Allan Houston Iii for 4 yds to the MUR 24Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+2
99.9%
Brock Domann pass complete to Chris Bell for 2 yds to the MUR 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the MUR 17Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+11
99.9%
Brock Domann pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 11 yds to the MUR 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for 6 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Q'Daryius Jennings run for 1 yd to the MUR 36 Q'Daryius Jennings fumbled, recovered by LOU TJ QuinnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
99.9%
Evan Conley run for 19 yds to the MUR 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
99.9%
Keyjuan Brown run for 13 yds to the MUR 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
Kywon Morgan run for a loss of 2 yards to the MUR 23Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Eric Phoenix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+10
100.0%
Eric Phoenix run for 10 yds to the MUR 33Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Orion Phillips punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:38100% → 100%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
99.9%
Keyjuan Brown run for 14 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Keyjuan Brown run for 5 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-2
100.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 43 fumbled, recovered by LOU Harrison BaileySimilar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+6
100.0%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Allan Houston Iii for 6 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds to the MUR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
100.0%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 11 yds to the MUR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
100.0%
Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds to the MUR 34Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
100.0%
Harrison Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+34
100.0%
Harrison Bailey pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 34 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Kylan Galbreath run for no gain to the MUR 25Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Eric Phoenix pass complete to Kylan Galbreath for 4 yds to the MUR 29Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Eric Phoenix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Orion Phillips punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
100.0%
Keyjuan Brown run for 9 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+6
100.0%
Keyjuan Brown run for 6 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
100.0%
Pierce Clarkson pass complete to William Fowles for 7 yds to the MUR 48Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+3
100.0%
Keyjuan Brown run for 3 yds to the MUR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Pierce Clarkson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
100.0%
Keyjuan Brown run for 4 yds to the MUR 41Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+3
100.0%
Pierce Clarkson run for 3 yds to the MUR 38Similar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+1
100.0%
Keyjuan Brown run for 1 yd to the MUR 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Kylan Galbreath run for no gain to the MUR 37Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
100.0%
Kylan Galbreath run for 3 yds to the MUR 40Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Jayden Stinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Orion Phillips punt for 34 yds, downed at the LOU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
100.0%
Kaden Moorman run for 9 yds to the LOU 35Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-2
100.0%
Kaden Moorman run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 33Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
100.0%
Kaden Moorman run for 4 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
100.0%
Kaden Moorman run for 25 yds to the MUR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Mario Agyen run for no gain to the MUR 38Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
100.0%
Brady Allen pass complete to Elijah Downing for 7 yds to the MUR 31Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
100.0%
Kaden Moorman run for 2 yds to the MUR 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:37
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 73 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 2:37
Jawhar Jordan run for 72 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 14:38
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com