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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:53 · Aidan Swanson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:09: Will Shipley 2 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Robert Gunn III Kick) — CLEM win probability +4.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:40: Riley Leonard 44 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick) — DUKE win probability +14.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 4:58: Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans — DUKE win probability +10.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 13:55: Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the CLEM 29 — DUKE win probability +20.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:33: Jaquez Moore 9 Yd Run (Riley Leonard Pass to Jalon Calhoun for Two-Point Conversion) — DUKE win probability +13.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 12:45CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snapGo for it76.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.0%average punt
- Q1 9:19DUKE 4th & 4 at CLEM 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 25.1% before the snapGo for it25.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call25.0%−0.193% to makePunt24.3%−0.8average punt
- Q1 5:11CLEM 4th & 12 at DUKE 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snapGo for it71.6%−0.422% to convertField goalTheir call72.0%68% to makePunt70.4%−1.6average punt
- Q1 4:15DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snapGo for it27.7%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.9%average punt
- Q1 2:53CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 27, down 3Close callPunted · 69.9% before the snapGo for it70.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:19DUKE 4th & 9 at CLEM 25, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snapGo for it31.2%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call31.4%66% to makePunt29.0%−2.5average punt
- Q2 12:21CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 36, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snapGo for it63.6%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.5%average punt
- Q2 7:13DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 39, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snapGo for it31.1%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.4%average punt
- Q2 1:47CLEM 4th & 12 at CLEM 43, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snapGo for it64.8%−1.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.8%average punt
- Q2 0:27DUKE 4th & 7 at CLEM 36, down 1Close callWent for it · 36.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.9%−0.737% to convertField goal36.6%42% to makePunt34.8%−1.8average punt
- Q3 9:01CLEM 4th & 4 at DUKE 4, down 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snapGo for it49.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call48.5%−1.093% to makePunt36.8%−12.7average punt
- Q3 8:14DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 24, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snapGo for it54.0%−1.538% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.5%average punt
- Q3 4:24DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 18, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 57.9% before the snapGo for it59.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.7%−1.5average punt
- Q4 8:15CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 49, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.4%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.8%−0.5average punt
- Q4 5:47DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 30, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it94.5%−1.025% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q4 1:51CLEM 4th & 8 at DUKE 39, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.134% to convertField goal0.7%36% to makePunt0.5%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 3CLEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 10:09CLEM Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.7%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:40DUKE Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.5%97% to makeGo for two49.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 10:33DUKE Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick90.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call90.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:15DUKE Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 1:5578% → 77%
DUKEDrive 2FG11 plays · 57 yds · 3:2623% → 25%
Q1 12:24
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+16
22.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+19
23.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 19 yds to the CLEM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+19
24.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 19 yds to the CLEM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3MISSED FG12 plays · 49 yds · 4:0075% → 72%
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
25.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 9 yds to the CLEM 36Similar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
25.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 18 yds to the DUKE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
25.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5228% → 27%
Q1 4:15
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+2
27.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 54 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 2 yds to the CLEM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1772% → 70%
DUKEDrive 6FG7 plays · 40 yds · 3:1629% → 34%
Q1 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
29.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 9 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+28
30.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 28 yds to the CLEM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-3
32.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the CLEM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7FUMBLE7 plays · 11 yds · 1:4467% → 64%
CLEMDrive 8TD5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5768% → 71%
DUKEDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 16 yds · 2:4731% → 32%
CLEMDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 35 yds · 5:2068% → 67%
Q2 6:33
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+10
31.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 10 yds to the CLEM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
31.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 13 yds to the CLEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
30.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 5 yds to the CLEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
30.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for no gain to the CLEM 45Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-9
31.2%
Cade Klubnik sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 9 yards to the CLEM 36Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
33.5%
Aidan Swanson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FUMBLE14 plays · 53 yds · 1:1534% → 37%
Q2 1:21
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+25
34.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 25 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
36.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 9 yds to the CLEM 44Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
37.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the CLEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
38.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 8 yds to the CLEM 31Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+10
35.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 10 yds to the CLEM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-6
37.4%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 6 yards to the CLEM 32 Jaquez Moore fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Trotter Jr., recovered by CLEM Andrew MukubaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 36 yds · 0:0368% → 69%
DUKEDrive 13TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0036% → 54%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
39.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the CLEM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14MISSED FG10 plays · 71 yds · 3:1750% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4456% → 54%
CLEMDrive 16FUMBLE7 plays · 62 yds · 2:4347% → 50%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
53.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 7 yds to the CLEM 35Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
50.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 8 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+21
49.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 21 yds to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
49.7%
Cade Klubnik run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 10 Cade Klubnik fumbled, recovered by DUKE Jeremiah LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3460% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18FUMBLE13 plays · 48 yds · 4:2945% → 46%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
54.9%
Klubnik, Cade pass complete to Shipley, Will for loss of 2 yards to the CLEMSON38, PENALTY DUKE offside 5 yards to the CLEMSON45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+9
53.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 9 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
54.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for 9 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+12
55.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 12 yds to the DUKE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
53.3%
Mafah, Phil rush for 6 yards to the DUKE9, PENALTY DUKE offside 5 yards to the DUKE10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+55
53.9%
Phil Mafah run for a loss of 11 yards to the CLEM 33 Phil Mafah fumbled, forced by Anthony Nelson, recovered by DUKE Jaylen Stinson , return for 55 yds to the CLEM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD7 plays · 33 yds · 3:2274% → 93%
Q4 13:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+12
75.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 12 yds to the CLEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+7
80.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the CLEM 13Similar
Q4 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
93.2%
Jaquez Moore 9 Yd Run (Riley Leonard Pass to Jalon Calhoun for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 29 yds · 2:0010% → 10%
DUKEDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -16 yds · 2:2895% → 95%
Q4 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-1
95.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22INT4 plays · 14 yds · 0:427% → 7%
DUKEDrive 23TD5 plays · 49 yds · 1:2097% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24DOWNS8 plays · 36 yds · 1:071% → 1%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Beaux Collins for 13 yds to the CLEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 11 yds to the CLEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
99.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 10 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
99.4%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Aaron Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 43 Cade Klubnik fumbled, forced by Aaron Hall, recovered by CLEM Walker Parks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+4
99.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for 4 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25END OF GAME5 plays · 16 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:55
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the CLEM 29
+20.3
TD · Q3 12:40
Riley Leonard 44 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)
+14.1
TD · Q4 10:33
Jaquez Moore 9 Yd Run (Riley Leonard Pass to Jalon Calhoun for Two-Point Conversion)
+13.1