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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadCOLG aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreCOLG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:01 · Shelby Pruett punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:18: LeQuint Allen run for 3 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — SYR win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:00: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 13 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — SYR win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:41: Jeremiah Wilson 66 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — SYR win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: COLG has the ball).
- FG · Q1 0:54: Brady Denaburg 25 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:36: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 44 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK) — SYR win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 4COLG made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 13:54COLG 4th & 5 at COLG 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 11:28SYR 4th & 16 at SYR 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q1 8:31COLG 4th & 16 at COLG 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 5:42COLG 4th & 10 at COLG 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q1 0:54SYR 4th & 3 at COLG 7, up 20Close callKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.6%46% to convertField goalTheir call98.5%−0.191% to makePunt98.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:18COLG 4th & 6 at COLG 29, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 7:39COLG 4th & 2 at COLG 44, down 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 3:46COLG 4th & 7 at COLG 40, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 9:55COLG 4th & 9 at COLG 26, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 5:01COLG 4th & 8 at COLG 27, down 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 0:00COLG 4th & 2 at COLG 33, down 65Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00SYR 4th & 2 at COLG 29, up 65Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.8%−0.158% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 10:06COLG 4th & 10 at COLG 13, down 65Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 5:31COLG 4th & 5 at SYR 47, down 65Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:05SYR 4th & 3 at COLG 46, up 65Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%52% to convertField goal99.8%−0.123% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 7:18SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:00SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:41SYR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick98.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:36SYR Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:13SYR Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:55SYR Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:48SYR Touchdown, up 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:13SYR Touchdown, up 57 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:34SYR Touchdown, up 64 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCOLGDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:061% → 1%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.7%
Michael Brescia pass complete to Brady Hutchison for 5 yds to the COLG 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 2:2699% → 98%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
98.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 12 yds to the SYR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 5 yds · 2:572% → 2%
Q1 11:28
4TH & 9
OWN 11
+5
98.3%
PRUETT, Shelby punt 36 yards to the COL47, ADAMS, D'Marcus returned 12 yards to the COL35 (HAMLIN, Arthur). PENALTY Before the snap, SYR Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the COL11 to the COL16. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+5
98.3%
Syracuse Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the COLG 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-9
98.3%
Michael Brescia sacked by Marlowe Wax for a loss of 9 yards to the COLG 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4TD4 plays · 38 yds · 1:1398% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:362% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6TD3 plays · 42 yds · 0:4298% → 98%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
98.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 17 yds to the COLG 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
98.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 12 yds to the COLG 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
98.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 13 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 7INT TD4 plays · 5 yds · 1:192% → 1%
COLGDrive 8FUMBLE1 play · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
98.6%
Jaedon Henry run for 17 yds to the COLG 42 Jaedon Henry fumbled, recovered by SYR Alijah ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9FG7 plays · 35 yds · 2:4099% → 99%
Q1 3:34
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+15
98.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Donovan Brown for 15 yds to the COLG 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+4
98.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 4 yds to the COLG 5Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-2
98.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for a loss of 2 yards to the COLG 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
98.6%
Michael Brescia pass complete to Jaedon Henry for a loss of 2 yards to the COLG 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
98.6%
Michael Brescia pass complete to Max Hurleman for 5 yds to the COLG 29Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Shelby Pruett punt for 46 yds, fair catch by D'Marcus Adams at the SYR 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11TD8 plays · 85 yds · 2:4299% → 99%
COLGDrive 12DOWNS8 plays · -5 yds · 3:571% → 1%
Q2 11:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
99.3%
Michael Brescia sacked by Derek McDonald and Denis Jaquez Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the COLG 27Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.4%
Michael Brescia pass complete to Reed Swanson for 9 yds to the COLG 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 2
OWN 44
-24
99.3%
run for a loss of 24 yards to the COLG 20 Shelby Pruett fumbled, recovered by COLG Shelby PruettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13TD2 plays · 20 yds · 0:2699% → 100%
COLGDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q2 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
99.6%
Michael Brescia pass complete to William Parker for 3 yds to the COLG 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15INT15 plays · 70 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q2 3:46
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+14
99.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Donovan Brown for 14 yds to the SYR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 8 yds to the SYR 35Similar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
99.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Donovan Brown for 13 yds to the COLG 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
99.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 8 yds to the COLG 30 Garrett Shrader fumbled, recovered by SYR Garrett ShraderSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Juwaun Price for 9 yds to the COLG 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17TD8 plays · 92 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q3 14:59
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+22
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 22 yds to the SYR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-5
99.7%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Austin McClendon and Danny Norocea for a loss of 5 yards to the SYR 35Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+42
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 42 yds to the COLG 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
99.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Donovan Brown for 10 yds to the COLG 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 4 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 2:000% → 0%
SYRDrive 19TD7 plays · 77 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q3 9:55
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+11
99.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 11 yds to the SYR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+48
99.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Umari Hatcher for 48 yds to the COLG 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 20INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:270% → 0%
SYRDrive 21TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Kendall Long for 25 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:120% → 0%
SYRDrive 23TD10 plays · 60 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q3 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Ike Daniels for 8 yds to the COLG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+11
99.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Kendall Long for 11 yds to the COLG 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+13
99.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Donovan Brown for 13 yds to the COLG 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:340% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25FUMBLE10 plays · 65 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
COLGDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:310% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27FUMBLE7 plays · 35 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 7:46
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+1
100.0%
Braden Davis run for 1 yd to the COLG 23 Braden Davis fumbled, recovered by COLG Ethan Malachi WestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 28DOWNS5 plays · 30 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
100.0%
Syracuse Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the COLG 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-5
100.0%
Zach Osborne run for a loss of 5 yards to the COLG 46 Zach Osborne fumbled, recovered by COLG Zach OsborneSimilar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+7
100.0%
Zach Osborne pass complete to Winston Moore for 7 yds to the SYR 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 29DOWNS5 plays · 6 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 30END OF GAME7 plays · 0 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
100.0%
Jake Stearney pass complete to Winston Moore for 7 yds to the SYR 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 3:41
Jeremiah Wilson 66 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+0.5
TD · Q2 11:36
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 44 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 5:00
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Damien Alford for 13 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
+0.3