2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadWOF aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreWOF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:40 · Phil Jurkovec run for 4 yds to the WOF 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:39: Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — WOF win probability +0.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:29: Phil Jurkovec run for 23 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:57: Daniel Carter 1 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:19: Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:22: Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Karter Johnson for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WOF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:40WOF 4th & 20 at WOF 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 12:40PITT 4th & 1 at WOF 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%70% to convertField goal97.9%−0.236% to makePunt97.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:50PITT 4th & 20 at WOF 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.210% to convertField goal97.5%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call97.6%average punt
- Q1 7:25WOF 4th & 4 at WOF 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.7%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q1 7:25PITT 4th & 3 at WOF 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.4%53% to convertField goal97.3%−0.138% to makePunt97.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:12WOF 4th & 20 at WOF 15, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.49% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q2 4:12WOF 4th & 1 at WOF 45, down 21Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:06WOF 4th & 5 at WOF 44, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 7:55WOF 4th & 5 at WOF 44, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:54PITT 4th & 3 at WOF 8, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−0.190% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 13:35WOF 4th & 17 at WOF 29, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:38PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 10, up 38Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:33WOF 4th & 1 at PITT 48, down 38Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:33PITT 4th & 1 at midfield, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WOF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 2:39PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:29PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:57PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:19PITT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:22PITT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:27PITT Touchdown, up 44 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
- Q4 1:13WOF Touchdown, down 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWOFDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 2:202% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-8
98.2%
Bryce Corriston sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 8 yards to the WOF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 3 yds · 3:5098% → 97%
WOFDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:253% → 3%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.4%
Bryce Corriston pass complete to J.T. Smith for 4 yds to the WOF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD9 plays · 57 yds · 4:4697% → 97%
WOFDrive 5FUMBLE4 plays · 24 yds · 1:223% → 4%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
CORRISTON, Bryce pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MATHEWS, Devin thrown to the WOF50. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on DEVONSHIRE, M.J. declined PIT Roughing the Passer on KAMARA, Bangally enforced 15 yards from the WOF25 to the WOF40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.8%
Bryce Corriston pass complete to Alec Holt for no gain to the PITT 46Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
96.5%
Bryce Corriston run for a loss of 5 yards to the WOF 49 Bryce Corriston fumbled, recovered by PITT Bam BrimaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6TD6 plays · 49 yds · 2:4897% → 97%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
96.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to C'Bo Flemister for 13 yds to the WOF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 2:173% → 3%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.1%
CORRISTON, Bryce pass short to the left complete for 4 yards to HOLT, Alec caught at the WOF27 and advanced to the WOF29 (O'BRIEN JR., Phillip), out of bounds. PENALTY PIT Offsides on SCOTT, Jimmy enforced 5 yards from the WOF25 to the WOF30 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-8
97.0%
Bryce Corriston sacked by Samuel Okunlola for a loss of 8 yards to the WOF 22Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-9
97.1%
Bryce Corriston sacked by Bangally Kamara for a loss of 9 yards to the WOF 15Similar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
97.0%
Atkins Roberts punt for 39 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for no gain to the PITT 15 Pittsburgh Penalty, Illegal Block (Javon McIntyre) to the PITT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD6 plays · 62 yds · 3:1597% → 98%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
97.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
50
+12
97.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jake Renda for 12 yds to the WOF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
97.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 28 yds to the WOF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 3:452% → 2%
PITTDrive 10TD5 plays · 66 yds · 2:5399% → 100%
Q2 4:12
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+23
98.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Karter Johnson for 23 yds to the WOF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
98.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 16 yds to the WOF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
98.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 18 yds to the WOF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 1:131% → 1%
PITTDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
99.5%
Kneel down by JURKOVEC, Phil at PIT6 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:28100% → 100%
Q3 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 10 yds to the PITT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Bub Means for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
50
+15
99.5%
JURKOVEC, Phil pass short to the left incomplete intended for FLEMISTER, C'Bo broken up by MARSHALL, Jalen at the WOF45. PENALTY WOF Targeting on SMITH, Chuck enforced 15 yards from the WOF50 to the WOF35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 4 yds to the WOF 31Similar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
99.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to C'Bo Flemister for 22 yds to the WOF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Karter Johnson for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:270% → 0%
PITTDrive 15FG13 plays · 87 yds · 7:01100% → 100%
WOFDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Bryce Corriston pass complete to Alec Holt for 11 yds to the WOF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Bryce Corriston pass complete to Alec Holt for 1 yd to the WOF 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-8
99.9%
Bryce Corriston sacked by Bam Brima for a loss of 8 yards to the WOF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 12:38
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+3
99.9%
Bryce Corriston pass complete to J.T. Smith for 3 yds to the PITT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD17 plays · 80 yds · 9:06100% → 100%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
99.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Zion Fowler-El for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 17Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+7
99.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Montravius Lloyd for 7 yds to the PITT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 8 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+9
100.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 9 yds to the WOF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+39
100.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Jake McConnachie for 39 yds for a TD (Samuel Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 20TD1 play · 75 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
100.0%
Bryce Corriston pass complete to Tyler Parker for 75 yds for a TD (Bridger Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:57
Daniel Carter 1 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)
+1.1
TD · Q2 1:19
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 13:29
Phil Jurkovec run for 23 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
+0.7