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Notre Dame 20 at Louisville 33

LOU
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:43 · Brock Travelstead punt for 53 yds, downed at the ND 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Home team on offense+3.4Pregame prior−13.7Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:58: Jordan Faison 36 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +10.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:24: Brock Travelstead 44 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +6.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:45: Jawhar Jordan run for 45 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +22.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:06: Spencer Shrader 54 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +5.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:12: Jawhar Jordan run for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +17.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 4:03ND 4th & 12 at ND 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:18LOU 4th & 11 at ND 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:16ND 4th & 16 at ND 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:43LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:57LOU 4th & 17 at LOU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−2.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:23LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:39ND 4th & 13 at ND 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−4.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:18ND 4th & 6 at LOU 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:24LOU 4th & 1 at ND 27, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%−3.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−11.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:28ND 4th & 3 at ND 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:06ND 4th & 4 at LOU 36, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.5%−2.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:42ND 4th & 11 at ND 35, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:31LOU 4th & 3 at ND 28, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:02LOU 4th & 14 at ND 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−3.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:34ND 4th & 7 at ND 28, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:12LOU 4th & 2 at ND 18, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:05LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:58ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:45LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:12LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:35ND Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3368% → 68%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
31.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 4 yds to the ND 26Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+10
31.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 10 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
32.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 15 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
32.1%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Quincy Riley return for no gain to the LOU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:4433% → 40%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
32.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 6 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
32.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 40Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
33.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
33.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
33.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the ND 45Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+7
34.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 7 yds to the ND 38Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+5
34.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
34.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 13 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
35.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the ND 15Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+8
35.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 8 yds to the ND 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
36.0%
Evan Conley run for 3 yds to the ND 4Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 0
OPP 4
-5
36.3%
Louisville Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the ND 9Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
39.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 9 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4761% → 59%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
38.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 13 yds to the ND 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
39.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ND 33Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
39.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-7
39.7%
Sam Hartman sacked by Ramon Puryear for a loss of 7 yards to the ND 26Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 12
OWN 26
+5
40.9%
Bryce McFerson punt for 47 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 5 yds to the LOU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4141% → 42%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
40.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 4 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+18
41.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 18 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
42.6%
Jack Plummer sacked by Nana Osafo-Mensah for a loss of 8 yards to the LOU 46Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+7
42.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
42.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Kevin ColemanSimilar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
41.8%
Brock Travelstead punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4658% → 55%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
42.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 9 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
41.5%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
42.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Chris TyreeSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
42.9%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the ND 36Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-9
43.0%
Sam Hartman sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 9 yards to the ND 27Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 16
OWN 27
0
44.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2544% → 45%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
44.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the LOU 35Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
45.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
44.7%
Jack Plummer run for no gain to the LOU 35Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
44.5%
Brock Travelstead punt for 53 yds, downed at the ND 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 5:3355% → 63%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
45.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 5 yds to the ND 17Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+5
45.5%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the ND 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
46.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Holden Staes for 7 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+3
45.8%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
46.3%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+13
47.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 13 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
46.2%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
46.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+12
48.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jordan Faison for 12 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
47.5%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+36
36.6%
Jordan Faison 36 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5742% → 40%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
41.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
40.9%
Jack Plummer sacked by JD Bertrand for a loss of 7 yards to the LOU 18Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
40.4%
Brock Travelstead punt for 48 yds, downed at the ND 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FUMBLE
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5261% → 62%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
38.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 8 yds to the ND 42Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+1
37.6%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 43Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-5
37.8%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ND 38Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+3
39.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+5
40.2%
Louisville Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
38.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Holden Staes for 9 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
37.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-2
37.7%
Sam Hartman run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 47 Sam Hartman fumbled, recovered by LOU Jarvis Brownlee Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0746% → 45%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
46.3%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 7
50
+5
46.8%
Maurice Turner run for 5 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-1
46.8%
Evan Conley run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 46Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 3
OPP 46
-5
46.4%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
45.0%
Brock Travelstead punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3658% → 55%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
41.7%
Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-10
40.9%
Sam Hartman sacked by Mason Reiger for a loss of 10 yards to the ND 17Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
43.7%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+12
44.7%
Bryce McFerson punt for 45 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:3149% → 49%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
50
+9
48.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 9 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
49.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the ND 41Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+4
47.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
48.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 6 yds to the ND 31Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
48.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 6 yds to the ND 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+42
49.1%
Brock Travelstead 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
41.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
45.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 14 yds Jamari Thrash fumbled, forced by Cam Hart, recovered by ND Cam HartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1262% → 63%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
38.5%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 44Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+9
40.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 9 yds to the LOU 35Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
39.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Chris TyreeSimilar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
37.1%
Spencer Shrader 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:3939% → 50%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 3 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
38.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
37.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 16 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+18
40.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 18 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
43.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 4
OPP 30
-2
44.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 32Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+5
43.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 5 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+44
49.7%
Brock Travelstead 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5256% → 53%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
44.4%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the ND 31Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
43.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 3 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
43.7%
Gi'Bran Payne run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 32Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
46.9%
Bryce McFerson punt for 36 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 4 yds to the LOU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:3750% → 72%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
49.9%
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for 19 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
72.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 45 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:3937% → 42%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
62.8%
Notre Dame Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the ND 22Similar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+5
65.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+7
66.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 7 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+24
68.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 24 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
62.8%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the LOU 40Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
63.4%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds to the LOU 35Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-1
63.4%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 36Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+54
57.8%
Spencer Shrader 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4264% → 87%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
63.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 14 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
65.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 8 yds to the LOU 47Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
67.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the LOU 48Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+1
67.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
68.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
67.9%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-5
65.3%
Louisville Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LOU 44Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+21
64.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
70.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+2
70.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+7
70.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 7 yds to the ND 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
87.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:1915% → 12%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 11 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
83.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 35Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
87.3%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
88.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Mitchell EvansSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
88.2%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5990% → 95%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
90.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the ND 34Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
90.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+4
90.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
94.9%
Brock Travelstead 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-34
91.9%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Devin Neal return for 34 yds to the ND 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:1896% → 97%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-5
96.0%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (Austin Collins) to the ND 15Similar
Q4 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
-2
95.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 17Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 0
OPP 17
0
96.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the ND 17Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 0
OPP 17
+3
96.2%
Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the ND 14Similar
Q4 5:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
97.4%
Brock Travelstead 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:183% → 2%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
97.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Kameron Wilson and Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 9 yards to the ND 16Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+12
97.6%
Sam Hartman run for 12 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-2
97.6%
Sam Hartman sacked by Mason Reiger for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 26 Sam Hartman fumbled, forced by Mason Reiger, recovered by LOU Ramon Puryear , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26FG
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:1698% → 100%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
98.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the ND 25Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+2
98.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the ND 23Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+5
98.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 5 yds to the ND 18Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+35
99.5%
Brock Travelstead 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:200% → 2%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
99.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 28 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+26
99.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 26 yds to the LOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+10
99.7%
Louisville Penalty, Roughing Passer (10 Yards) to the LOU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jadarian Price for 5 yds to the LOU 6Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
99.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 6 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:182% → 2%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
98.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Gi'Bran Payne for 2 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+17
98.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 17 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
98.1%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Devin Neal return for 4 yds to the LOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 24Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:45
Jawhar Jordan run for 45 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q4 11:12
Jawhar Jordan run for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+17.3
TD · Q2 6:58
Jordan Faison 36 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com