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ND

Notre Dame 21 at Duke 14

DUKE
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:19 · Jeremiyah Love run for 34 yds to the DUKE 13 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior−10.4Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 9:17: Spencer Shrader 45 Yd Field Goal — ND win probability +7.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:36: Jordan Waters 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick) — DUKE win probability +14.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q4 9:17: Jordan Moore 3 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Todd Pelino Kick) — DUKE win probability +26.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:38: TEAM pass incomplete — ND win probability +12.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 0:31: Audric Estime 30 Yd Run (Sam Hartman Pass to Rico Flores Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — ND win probability +49.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 12:19ND 4th & 4 at DUKE 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:06DUKE 4th & 10 at ND 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:12ND 4th & 9 at DUKE 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:56ND 4th & 14 at DUKE 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:32DUKE 4th & 19 at DUKE 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:58ND 4th & 6 at DUKE 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:32DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:37ND 4th & 5 at DUKE 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:05DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:37ND 4th & 14 at ND 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00DUKE 4th & 6 at ND 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−5.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:02DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:09ND 4th & 2 at DUKE 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.7%−1.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:17ND 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−5.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:17DUKE 4th & 1 at ND 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%−1.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−6.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:09ND 4th & 12 at ND 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−4.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:42DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:44ND 4th & 3 at DUKE 43, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−3.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−2.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:58ND 4th & 5 at ND 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:35DUKE 4th & 6 at ND 33, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.4 ptsPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−1.4
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−7.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:41ND 4th & 16 at DUKE 47, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:00ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:36DUKE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:17DUKE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−1.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:31ND Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    83.5%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:5161% → 61%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
39.3%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 19Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+28
39.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 28 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
39.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
39.6%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Zeke Correll) to the ND 42Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 15
OWN 42
-2
39.7%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 40Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 17
OWN 40
+13
39.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 13 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+34
40.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 34 yds to the DUKE 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
39.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 7 yds to the DUKE 6Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
38.6%
Audric Estime 6 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:4239% → 39%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+27
39.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 27 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
39.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
39.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
39.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan WatersSimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
39.9%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the ND 33Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+5
39.6%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Moore, Jordan, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Jean-Baptiste, Javontae) 5 yards to the NOTREDAME28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+8
39.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
39.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
40.0%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the ND 20Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
39.7%
Riley Leonard run for no gain to the ND 20Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
39.1%
Todd Pelino 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:4961% → 62%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
38.6%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the ND 22Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
38.6%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Zeke Correll) to the ND 17Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
38.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Holden StaesSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+14
38.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 14 yds to the ND 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
38.3%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
37.9%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 1 yd to the ND 38Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+21
37.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 21 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
37.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
37.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 6 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
37.2%
Audric Estime run for no gain to the DUKE 35Similar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 4
OPP 35
-5
37.8%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Billy Schrauth) to the DUKE 40Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
37.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3838% → 38%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
38.1%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the DUKE 14Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-12
38.0%
Riley Leonard pass intercepted Xavier Watts return for 12 yds to the DUKE 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2764% → 63%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
36.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
36.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the DUKE 9Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-5
36.5%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Rico Flores Jr.) to the DUKE 14Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 11
OPP 14
-3
36.6%
Sam Hartman sacked by Ja'Mion Franklin for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 17Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 14
OPP 17
+35
37.1%
Spencer Shrader 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:1636% → 34%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
35.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
35.8%
Jalon Calhoun run for 3 yds to the DUKE 25Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-12
35.1%
Riley Leonard sacked by Javontae Jean-Baptiste and Marist Liufau for a loss of 12 yards to the DUKE 13Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 19
OWN 13
+7
34.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 53 yds , Chris Tyree returns for 7 yds to the ND 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2764% → 65%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
35.6%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
35.5%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 8 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
35.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the DUKE 48Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
35.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 3 yds to the DUKE 45Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
34.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Holden StaesSimilar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
35.4%
Bryce McFerson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:2035% → 33%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
34.5%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the DUKE 16Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+21
34.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 21 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
34.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-3
34.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Malik Bowen-Sims for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 34Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+5
33.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaquez Moore for 5 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
33.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ND 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:4466% → 67%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+36
33.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 36 yds to the DUKE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
32.4%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the DUKE 23Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
31.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+4
32.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 4 yds to the DUKE 19Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
32.8%
Spencer Shrader 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2333% → 31%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
32.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
32.5%
Riley Leonard run for no gain to the DUKE 20Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
31.4%
Leonard, Riley pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the DUKE13 (Botelho, Jordan;Cross III, Howard), PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Botelho, Jordan) 5 yards to the DUKE25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
31.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
31.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2167% → 66%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
32.6%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 25Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-10
32.7%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Spindler, Rocco) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 19
OWN 15
0
32.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 19
OWN 15
+5
33.5%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 14
OWN 20
+7
33.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 57 yds , Sahmir Hagans returns for 7 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12MISSED FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:3232% → 27%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
32.2%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
32.5%
Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
32.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 45Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
31.6%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the DUKE 45Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+12
30.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 12 yds to the ND 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+21
32.4%
Riley Leonard run for 21 yds to the ND 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
33.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the ND 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
33.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
33.2%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the ND 6Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-1
30.9%
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 7 Riley Leonard fumbled, forced by Howard Cross III, recovered by DUKE Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
27.4%
Todd Pelino 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5430% → 28%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.7%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky Dalmolin, broken up by Javontae Jean-BaptisteSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.6%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
29.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-3
28.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 37 yds , Chris Tyree returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 30 Chris Tyree fumbled, recovered by ND Ramon HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:3771% → 79%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
29.5%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+22
28.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 22 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
27.1%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
27.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+4
27.5%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the DUKE 36Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+7
28.3%
Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the DUKE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
26.2%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the DUKE 25Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
26.1%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
26.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 3
OPP 22
-5
27.9%
Notre Dame Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 27Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
20.9%
Spencer Shrader 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3525% → 42%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.9%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
24.4%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
23.7%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
23.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+34
23.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 34 yds to the ND 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
26.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
26.3%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the ND 25Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
25.0%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+7
24.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the ND 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
24.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 12 yds to the ND 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
26.9%
Moore, Jaquez rush for no gain to the NOTREDAME1, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Hart, Cam) 0 yards to the NOTREDAME1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.8%
Jordan Waters 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1769% → 66%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
31.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Chris Tyree, broken up by Jeremiah LewisSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
31.8%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 2 yds to the ND 26Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-4
32.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Aeneas Peebles and Tre Freeman for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 22Similar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
33.7%
Bryce McFerson punt for 38 yds, downed at the DUKE 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2038% → 34%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
38.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
38.7%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the DUKE 44Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
37.0%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
34.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:5170% → 73%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
29.6%
Audric Estime run for no gain to the ND 19 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (Terry Moore) to the ND 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
28.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
50
+4
26.0%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the DUKE 46Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
25.9%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
26.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
27.3%
Bryce McFerson punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:2235% → 66%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
34.8%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the DUKE 24Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
35.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+26
33.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
50
+33
39.6%
Riley Leonard run for 33 yds to the ND 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
39.5%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the ND 16 for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Botelho) to the ND 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
39.5%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the ND 1Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
39.4%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 3Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.5%
Jordan Moore 3 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Todd Pelino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0343% → 39%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
57.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
56.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the ND 35Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
58.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Holden StaesSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
60.9%
Bryce McFerson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 5:1863% → 71%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
62.9%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+13
63.2%
Jordan Waters run for 13 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
67.2%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the DUKE 49Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+4
67.1%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+10
67.7%
Riley Leonard run for 10 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
69.4%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 38Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+7
70.2%
Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the ND 31Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-2
72.1%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 33Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
71.4%
Riley Leonard punt for 28 yds, downed at the ND 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
15 plays · 95 yds · 2:0437% → 91%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
63.3%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Tobias Merriweather) to the ND 3Similar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+13
64.2%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Flores Jr., Rico, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Pickett, Joshua) 13 yards to the NOTREDAME16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
63.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for no gain to the ND 16Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
66.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+19
68.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 19 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
66.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 24 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
60.7%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Merriweather, Tobias, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Merriweather, Tobias) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 25
OWN 44
+9
67.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 9 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 16
OPP 47
0
65.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Mitchell EvansSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 16
OPP 47
0
68.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Mitchell EvansSimilar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 16
OPP 47
+17
70.8%
Sam Hartman run for 17 yds to the DUKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
58.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
9.2%
Audric Estime 30 Yd Run (Sam Hartman Pass to Rico Flores Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0912% → 12%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
12.0%
Riley Leonard sacked by Howard Cross III for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 26 Riley Leonard fumbled, forced by Howard Cross III, recovered by ND Marist Liufau , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
14.8%
Audric Estime run for 9 yds to the DUKE 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:31
Audric Estime 30 Yd Run (Sam Hartman Pass to Rico Flores Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
-49.6
TD · Q4 9:17
Jordan Moore 3 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Todd Pelino Kick)
+26.1
TD · Q3 3:36
Jordan Waters 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)
+14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com