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CMU

Central Michigan 17 at Notre Dame 41

ND
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:22 · Jake Walrath punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+5.3Home team on offense+31.9Score differential+22.6Garbage-time factor+8.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:17: Jase Bauer run for 1 yd for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +2.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:36: Sam Hartman run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +1.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 1:59: Tristan Mattson 23 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +1.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:30: Spencer Shrader 50 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:45: Sam Hartman pass complete to Holden Staes for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:55CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:13ND 4th & 1 at CMU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:35CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:40CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:49ND 4th & 10 at CMU 41, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    96.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:39CMU 4th & 8 at ND 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:15ND 4th & 3 at ND 27, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:07CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:36ND 4th & 10 at ND 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:36CMU 4th & 1 at ND 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%−1.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:59CMU 4th & 5 at ND 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:30ND 4th & 9 at CMU 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:01CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:01ND 4th & 2 at CMU 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:07ND 4th & 3 at CMU 13, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:36CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:22CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 32, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:52ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:22CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:13ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:17ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:17CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:36ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:45ND Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:052% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Myles Bailey for 7 yds to the CMU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
98.4%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the CMU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
98.4%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 34Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
98.2%
Jake Walrath punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
4 plays · 91 yds · 2:0398% → 98%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
98.2%
Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the ND 17Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+3
98.2%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.2%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the ND 25Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+75
98.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 75 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:302% → 3%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.0%
Myles Bailey run for 5 yds to the CMU 40Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
98.0%
BAUER, Jase pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DAVIS, Tyson thrown to the UND34. PENALTY UND Roughing the Passer on BURNHAM, Joshua enforced 15 yards from the CMU40 to the UND45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
98.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 16 yds to the ND 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
98.0%
Marion Lukes run for 9 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+8
98.0%
Jase Bauer run for 8 yds to the ND 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
98.0%
Marion Lukes run for 6 yds to the ND 6Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
97.3%
Myles Bailey run for 6 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0997% → 97%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.4%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 26Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 12 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
97.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 11 yds to the ND 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
97.5%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+10
97.5%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 10 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
97.5%
Audric Estime run for 11 yds to the CMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
97.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+8
97.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the CMU 18Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
97.5%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the CMU 17Similar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+17
97.1%
Audric Estime run for 17 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:333% → 3%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
97.0%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the CMU 25Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-1
97.0%
Marion Lukes run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 24Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
97.1%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
96.9%
Jake Walrath punt for 63 yds, downed at the ND 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:4397% → 98%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
96.8%
Jayden Thomas run for 10 yds to the ND 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
96.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the ND 24Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+76
97.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 76 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:373% → 3%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
97.3%
Jase Bauer sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the CMU 15Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+8
97.4%
Jase Bauer run for 8 yds to the CMU 23Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
97.3%
Jake Walrath punt for 42 yds, downed at the ND 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5198% → 97%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
97.5%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd to the ND 36Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+12
97.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 12 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
97.6%
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the CMU 49Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
97.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 8 yds to the CMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
97.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
97.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
97.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 10
OPP 41
+59
97.2%
Spencer Shrader 59 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:103% → 3%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
96.9%
Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the CMU 43Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+22
96.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 22 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
96.7%
Notre Dame Penalty, Roughing the Passer on MILLS, Rylie enforced (Rylie Mills) to the ND 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-12
96.6%
Jase Bauer sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the ND 32Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 22
OPP 32
+14
96.8%
Myles Bailey run for 14 yds to the ND 18Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
96.8%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
96.6%
Tristan Mattson 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:2497% → 96%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
96.9%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 17Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
96.8%
HARTMAN, Sam pass short up the middle complete for 1 yard to ESTIME, Audric caught at the UND19 and advanced to the UND18 (WHITESIDE, Justin). PENALTY UND Holding on FISHER, Blake enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the UND17 to the UND9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+10
96.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Cam Hart for 10 yds to the ND 19Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+8
96.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 8 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
96.4%
Bryce McFerson punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 3:584% → 7%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+25
96.4%
Marion Lukes run for 25 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
96.3%
Marion Lukes run for 7 yds to the CMU 49Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+1
96.2%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 2
50
+4
96.2%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
96.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Lavario Wiley for 4 yds to the ND 42Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+31
96.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 31 yds to the ND 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
95.8%
BAUER, Jase pass to the left incomplete intended for DAVIS, Tyson thrown to the UND0. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on MICKEY, Jaden enforced 9 yards to the UND2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.4%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the ND 1Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.5%
QB Keeper BAUER, Jase rush up the middle for no gain to the UND1 (KEANAAINA, Aidan). PENALTY UND Offsides enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the UND1 to the UND1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.3%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the ND 1Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.7%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
[NH] Kneel down by HARTMAN, Sam at UND23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 3:1994% → 97%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
94.0%
Audric Estime run for 21 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
94.5%
Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the CMU 45Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+3
94.6%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+39
94.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 39 yds to the CMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
94.6%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the CMU 2Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
94.6%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the CMU 1Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.5%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:294% → 4%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
96.1%
Myles Bailey run for 19 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
95.8%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the CMU 46Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-10
95.7%
BAILEY, Myles rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the UND45 (KISER, Jack;CROSS III, Howard). PENALTY CMU Holding on SERAPIGLIA III, Dominic enforced 10 yards from the CMU46 to the CMU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 18
OWN 36
0
96.2%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 18
OWN 36
+11
96.3%
Jase Bauer run for 11 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
95.7%
Jake Walrath punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3196% → 96%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
96.4%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the ND 22Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
96.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 6 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+62
96.2%
Audric Estime run for 72 yds Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (Holden Staes) to the ND 20Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
96.1%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
96.1%
Bryce McFerson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:375% → 7%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.2%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
95.3%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+7
95.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 7 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
95.2%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
95.0%
QB Keeper BAUER, Jase rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the UND39 (OSAFO-MENSAH, Nana). PENALTY CMU Holding on KLIMCZAK, Cade enforced 10 yards from the UND44 to the CMU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+37
95.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 37 yds to the ND 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
94.6%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
94.6%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the ND 14Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+9
94.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 9 yds to the ND 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.6%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.6%
Myles Bailey run for no gain to the ND 5Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.9%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
93.2%
Tristan Mattson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:2994% → 97%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
94.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 42 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
94.9%
PRICE, Jadarian rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the CMU31 (JONES, Trey;WHITESIDE, Justin). PENALTY UND Holding on COOGAN, Pat enforced 10 yards from the CMU33 to the CMU43 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+11
94.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 11 yds to the CMU 32Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
94.9%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
94.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+50
96.8%
Spencer Shrader 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:594% → 4%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
95.5%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.6%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.8%
Jake Walrath punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:5497% → 98%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
97.1%
Audric Estime run for 12 yds to the CMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
97.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 6 yds to the CMU 42Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
97.2%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 3 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-1
97.1%
Gi'Bran Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 40Similar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+5
96.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 5 yds to the CMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
97.2%
Jadarian Price run for 15 yds to the CMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
97.2%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the CMU 18Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
97.2%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+5
97.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 5 yds to the CMU 13Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
97.9%
Spencer Shrader 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:312% → 2%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
97.7%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the CMU 34Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
97.7%
Myles Bailey run for no gain to the CMU 34Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
97.8%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
97.9%
Jake Walrath punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:5198% → 100%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+22
97.9%
Audric Estime run for 22 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
98.1%
Audric Estime run for 13 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+41
98.1%
Audric Estime run for 41 yds to the CMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.1%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
98.1%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the CMU 4Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Holden Staes for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:231% → 1%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Decorion Temple for 4 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.5%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 32Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the CMU 32Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Jake Walrath punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.5%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
99.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the ND 19Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+12
99.5%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Devyn Ford for 12 yds to the ND 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.5%
Chase Ketterer run for 3 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
99.5%
Skip Velotta run for 5 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
99.6%
Sam Assaf run for 2 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:17
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)
-2.6
FG · Q3 0:30
Spencer Shrader 50 yd FG GOOD
+2.2
TD · Q3 11:36
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com