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TNST

Tennessee State 3 at Notre Dame 56

ND
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadTNST aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreTNST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:39 · Deveon Bryant run for 1 yd to the ND 28 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior+39.9Home team on offense+17.8Score differential+0.4Blowout margin+4.4Garbage-time factor+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:17: Jeremiyah Love run for 36 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — TNST win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 2:44: James Lowery 38 yd FG GOOD — TNST win probability +0.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 9:41: Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 24 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:17: Audric Estime run for 5 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:15: Sam Hartman pass complete to Holden Staes for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TNST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 2:44TNST 4th & 5 at ND 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:38TNST 4th & 10 at ND 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:12TNST 4th & 5 at TNST 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:39TNST 4th & 1 at ND 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:53TNST 4th & 18 at ND 18, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:46TNST 4th & 10 at ND 49, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:19ND 4th & 7 at ND 46, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:34TNST 4th & 9 at TNST 36, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:17TNST 4th & 9 at TNST 48, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:00TNST 4th & 6 at TNST 29, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:40ND 4th & 2 at ND 46, up 53
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:31TNST 4th & 5 at TNST 27, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 9:17ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:22ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:41ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:17ND Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:15ND Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:06ND Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:19ND Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:43ND Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:4399% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.4%
Audric Estime run for 9 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-4
99.4%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
99.4%
Sam Hartman run for 9 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.4%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the ND 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+11
99.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 11 yds to the TNST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
99.4%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 1 yard to the TNST 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+7
99.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 7 yds to the TNST 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+5
99.4%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 5 yds to the TNST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.4%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the TNST 36Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
99.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 36 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 2FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 6:331% → 2%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.2%
Jalen Rouse run for 15 yds to the TNST 40 Tennessee State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TNST 18Similar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+2
99.2%
Jalen Rouse run for 2 yds to the TNST 20Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
99.2%
Deveon Bryant pass complete to Jalen Rouse for 7 yds to the TNST 27Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
99.2%
BRYANT, Deveon pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVIS, Da'Shon thrown to the TSU35; QB hurried by LIUFAU, Marist. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on HARPER, Thomas enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the TSU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.1%
Jalen Rouse run for 4 yds to the TNST 41Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
99.1%
Deveon Bryant pass complete to Karate Brenson for 4 yds to the TNST 45Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
99.1%
Deveon Bryant run for 4 yds to the TNST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
99.1%
Jalen Rouse run for 9 yds to the ND 42Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+1
99.1%
Jalen Rouse run for 1 yd to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.1%
Deveon Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.1%
Jordan Gant run for 3 yds to the ND 38Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+13
99.1%
Deveon Bryant pass complete to Chayil Garnett for 13 yds to the ND 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.1%
Deveon Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.1%
Jalen Rouse run for 5 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
99.1%
Deveon Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
98.5%
James Lowery 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 3MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:002% → 2%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.4%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
98.4%
Jalen Rouse run for no gain to the ND 12Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
98.5%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
98.4%
James Lowery 29 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:1698% → 99%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.4%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the ND 20Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
98.4%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
98.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 4 yds to the ND 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+50
98.2%
Audric Estime run for 50 yds to the TNST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
98.3%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the TNST 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+11
98.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jadarian Price for 11 yds to the TNST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
98.3%
Gi'Bran Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the TNST 5Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.5%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 5INT
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:402% → 2%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.4%
Deveon Bryant pass complete to Dayron Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the TNST 22Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
98.3%
Deveon Bryant pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
98.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 3
50
-1
98.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 49Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+27
98.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 27 yds to the TNST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
98.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 24 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
98.8%
Jordan Gant run for 2 yds to the TNST 23Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
98.8%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Jordan Gant for 3 yds to the TNST 26Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
98.8%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
98.7%
Jackson Foster punt for 27 yds, downed at the ND 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:5599% → 99%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
98.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+23
98.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 23 yds to the TNST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
98.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the TNST 22Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+5
98.7%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 5 yds to the TNST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
98.8%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 12 yds to the TNST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.2%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 9MISSED FG
15 plays · 20 yds · 4:121% → 2%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
98.6%
Jordan Gant run for 3 yds to the ND 35Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
98.5%
Deveon Bryant run for 5 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
98.2%
Jordan Gant run for 1 yd to the ND 29Similar
Q2 2:39
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+1
98.2%
Deveon Bryant run for 1 yd to the ND 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
98.1%
Deveon Bryant run for 13 yds to the ND 11 Deveon Bryant fumbled, recovered by TNST Canen Adrian for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
94.6%
Tennessee State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ND 10Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.6%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
96.7%
Jalen Rouse run for 2 yds to the ND 8Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
96.9%
Tennessee State Penalty, False Start (Jalen Rouse) to the ND 13Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-5
98.2%
Draylen Ellis sacked by Jordan Botelho for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 18Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+35
98.2%
James Lowery 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 0:3899% → 100%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Gi'Bran Payne for 3 yds to the ND 23Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+18
99.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 18 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
99.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 18 yds to the TNST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
99.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 13 yds to the TNST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+24
99.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 24 yds to the TNST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Holden Staes for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
[NH] Kneel down by BRYANT, Deveon at TSU23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:140% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Jalen Rouse run for no gain to the TNST 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Jalen Rouse run for 4 yds to the TNST 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+22
99.7%
Deveon Bryant pass complete to Da'Shon Davis for 22 yds to the ND 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
99.7%
Jalen Rouse run for a loss of 2 yards to the TNST 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+2
99.7%
Deveon Bryant run for 2 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Deveon Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Jackson Foster punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:27100% → 100%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.8%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the ND 21Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+1
99.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 1 yd to the ND 22Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+5
99.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 5 yds to the ND 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
99.8%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the ND 33Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+10
99.8%
ANGELI, Steve pass to the left incomplete intended for LOVE, Jeremiyah thrown to the UND31. PENALTY TSU Holding on BEARD III, Monroe enforced 10 yards from the UND33 to the UND43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.8%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
99.8%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 3
50
+1
99.8%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 1 yd to the TNST 49Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-5
99.8%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Pat Coogan) to the ND 46Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
99.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.7%
Tre Boone III run for 3 yds to the TNST 23Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
99.7%
Tre Boone III run for 2 yds to the TNST 25Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+15
99.7%
ELLIS, Draylen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DAVIS, Da'Shon thrown to the TSU45. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on LEWIS, Clarence enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the TSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
99.7%
Tennessee State Penalty, Personal Foul (Romello Tarver) to the TNST 25Similar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.7%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Tre Boone III for 10 yds to the TNST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.7%
Tre Boone III run for 1 yd to the TNST 36Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Jackson Foster punt for 46 yds, downed at the ND 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 6 yds to the ND 24Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+26
99.9%
Audric Estime run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.9%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the TNST 48Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+12
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 12 yds to the TNST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
99.9%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 4 yards to the TNST 40Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+40
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jadarian Price for 40 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 16INT TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Tre Boone III run for 3 yds to the TNST 28Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-33
99.9%
Clarence Lewis 33 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:430% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Draylen Ellis run for 5 yds to the TNST 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Jordan Gant run for 4 yds to the TNST 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Jordan Gant run for 2 yds to the TNST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.9%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Delanie Majors for 11 yds to the TNST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Jordan Gant run for 4 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-3
99.9%
Jordan Gant run for a loss of 3 yards to the TNST 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Jackson Foster punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 4 yds to the ND 17Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+7
99.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 20 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Jadarian Price run for 9 yds to the TNST 47Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 5 yds to the TNST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
100.0%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Gi'Bran Payne for 42 yds for a TD (Zac Yoakam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Deveon Bryant run for 4 yds to the TNST 29Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Tre Boone III run for no gain to the TNST 29Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Deveon Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Jackson Foster punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
100.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 34Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+4
100.0%
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Chase Ketterer for 4 yds to the ND 38Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+8
100.0%
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Davis Sherwood for 8 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Bryce McFerson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dayron Johnson at the TNST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
100.0%
Craig Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the TNST 21Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+1
100.0%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 1 yd to the TNST 22Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+5
100.0%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 5 yds to the TNST 27Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Jackson Foster punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 10 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
100.0%
Skip Velotta run for 9 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
100.0%
Sam Assaf run for 1 yd to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q1 2:44
James Lowery 38 yd FG GOOD
-0.6
TD · Q2 9:41
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 24 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 5:17
Audric Estime run for 5 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com