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NAVY

Navy 3 at Notre Dame 42

ND
2023 · Week 1 · Aug 26, 2023 · Aviva Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:45 · Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+1.6Home team on offense+34.8Score differential+30.4Blowout margin+17.1Garbage-time factor+13.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+14.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:26: Audric Estime run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +0.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:03: Jadarian Price run for 19 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +2.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:00: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 35 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +3.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:13: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q3 13:23: Alex Tecza run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 26 Alex Tecza fumbled, forced by Cam Hart, recovered by NAVY Tai Lavatai — ND win probability +4.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 4:30NAVY 4th & 3 at ND 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:15NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:52NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:55NAVY 4th & 4 at ND 19, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.6%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:24NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:16NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 2, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:09ND 4th & 11 at NAVY 24, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:45NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 33, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:45NAVY 4th & 1 at ND 6, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:33NAVY 4th & 13 at ND 13, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:45ND 4th & 1 at ND 36, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:26ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:03ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:00ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:36ND Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:54ND Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 6:0992% → 91%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
91.5%
Audric Estime run for 10 yds to the ND 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
91.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 19 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
91.3%
Audric Estime run for no gain to the ND 48Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
91.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+11
91.1%
Audric Estime run for 11 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
91.0%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 5 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+3
90.9%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 3 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 2
OPP 33
-10
90.6%
Audric Estime run for no gain to the NAVY 33 Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mitchell Evans) to the NAVY 43Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+22
90.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 22 yds to the NAVY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
90.6%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 6 yds to the NAVY 15Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+7
90.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Deion Colzie for 7 yds to the NAVY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
90.2%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the NAVY 1Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.0%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:309% → 10%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.6%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
90.4%
Daba Fofana run for 14 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
90.3%
Daba Fofana run for 11 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
90.0%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the ND 44Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
89.9%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+2
89.8%
Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
89.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Amin HassanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:1790% → 92%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
90.2%
Audric Estime run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line Audric Estime fumbled, recovered by NDSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
50
+9
90.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+9
90.3%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 9 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
90.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
90.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Matt Salerno for 9 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+4
89.8%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 4 yds to the NAVY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
92.1%
Jadarian Price run for 19 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 4:039% → 9%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.2%
Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
91.0%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
91.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
91.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
91.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 4 yds to the NAVY 40 Eli Heidenreich fumbled, recovered by NAVYSimilar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
90.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
90.9%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the NAVY 42Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
91.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 36 yds, downed at the ND 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:3992% → 96%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
91.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 19 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
92.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 11 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
92.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Deion Colzie for 13 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
95.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 35 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6MISSED FG
17 plays · 56 yds · 7:475% → 4%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.1%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
95.0%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 27Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
95.2%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
95.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
94.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the NAVY 43Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
95.0%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
95.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
50
+4
95.0%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+6
95.1%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
95.4%
Brandon Chatman run for 4 yds to the ND 36Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+11
95.4%
Alex Tecza run for 11 yds to the ND 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
95.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-2
95.4%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 22Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+3
95.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the ND 19Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
95.7%
Evan Warren 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 1:3297% → 99%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
97.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 20 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
97.1%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the ND 42Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
97.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Devyn Ford for 9 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 7 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
97.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Gi'Bran Payne for no gain to the NAVY 42Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+13
97.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 13 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
97.4%
Navy Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NAVY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
97.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Gi'Bran PayneSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:235% → 1%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
99.3%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 26 Alex Tecza fumbled, forced by Cam Hart, recovered by NAVY Tai LavataiSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
99.3%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ND 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:3999% → 100%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.3%
Audric Estime run for 11 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.4%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+10
99.4%
Audric Estime run for 10 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
99.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 11 yds to the NAVY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.4%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 4 yds to the NAVY 20Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
99.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 20 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
99.6%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 8Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+3
99.6%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 11Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 5
OWN 11
-9
99.7%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Joshua Burnham for a loss of 9 yards to the NAVY 2Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 14
OWN 2
+11
99.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds , Chris Tyree returns for 11 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.7%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+8
99.7%
Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the NAVY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 4 yds to the NAVY 19Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-5
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Gi'Bran Payne for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 24Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
99.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Chris TyreeSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+42
99.7%
Spencer Shrader 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · -10 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Amin HassanSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
99.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 2 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+3
99.7%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Camari WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-24
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 24 yards to the NAVY 14 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NAVY Daba FofanaSimilar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 32
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.8%
Jadarian Price run for 7 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+6
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
99.8%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 46Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+21
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 21 yds to the NAVY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the NAVY 25Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Deion Colzie for 25 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FG
17 plays · 62 yds · 7:570% → 0%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NAVY 43Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+39
99.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 39 yds to the ND 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
99.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the ND 8Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the ND 8Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
99.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 2 yds to the ND 6Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
99.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the ND 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
99.9%
Xavier Arline sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 10 yards to the ND 14Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
99.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the ND 13Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Cody HowardSimilar
Q4 3:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
100.0%
Evan Warren 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16END OF GAME
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
100.0%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
100.0%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the ND 36Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Audric Estime run for no gain to the ND 36Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+2
100.0%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
100.0%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Rico Flores for 2 yds to the ND 40Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-2
100.0%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 38 Chris Tyree fumbled, recovered by ND Chris TyreeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q3 13:23
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 26 Alex Tecza fumbled, forced by Cam Hart, recovered by NAVY Tai Lavatai
+4.4
TD · Q2 10:00
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 35 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q1 1:03
Jadarian Price run for 19 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com