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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreCOLO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:37 · Luke Bottari pass complete to Luca Caldarella for 16 yds to the COLO 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:17: Jimmy Horn Jr. pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 30 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +4.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:20: Alejandro Mata 47 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +2.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:10: Luke Bottari run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +5.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:31: Cole Becker 31 yd FG GOOD — UTAH win probability +4.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:31: Ryan Staub pass complete to Travis Hunter for 18 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +13.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 15:00COLO 4th & 1 at UTAH 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.6%70% to convertField goal8.4%−0.238% to makePunt8.4%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:03COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.9%average punt
- Q2 11:17UTAH 4th & 3 at COLO 16, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snapGo for it88.3%51% to convertField goalTheir call88.2%−0.281% to makePunt86.4%−2.0average punt
- Q2 1:38UTAH 4th & 4 at COLO 4, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snapGo for it82.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call82.4%−0.393% to makePunt78.9%−3.8average punt
- Q2 0:20COLO 4th & 7 at UTAH 29, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snapGo for it15.8%−0.937% to convertField goalTheir call16.7%58% to makePunt14.2%−2.5average punt
- Q3 13:14UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 41, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snapGo for it81.2%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.8%average punt
- Q3 11:37COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 19, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snapGo for it17.7%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.1%average punt
- Q3 11:37UTAH 4th & 4 at COLO 38, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.1%48% to convertField goal80.9%−1.238% to makePunt80.9%−1.1average punt
- Q3 4:56COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snapGo for it10.6%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.0%average punt
- Q3 0:00UTAH 4th & 3 at COLO 33, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.9%53% to convertField goal89.1%−0.849% to makePunt88.5%−1.4average punt
- Q4 11:31UTAH 4th & 8 at COLO 13, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snapGo for it89.0%−0.530% to convertField goalTheir call89.5%85% to makePunt85.2%−4.3average punt
- Q4 11:23COLO 4th & 4 at UTAH 43, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.2%48% to convertField goal6.1%−1.128% to makePunt6.2%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:03UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.5%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:17COLO Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.8%97% to makeGo for two14.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:10UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.6%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:31COLO Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.3%97% to makeGo for two11.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCOLODrive 1FUMBLE10 plays · 33 yds · 5:476% → 8%
UTAHDrive 2TD9 plays · 58 yds · 5:1093% → 92%
Q1 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
92.6%
GLOVER, Jaylon rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the BUF6 (KENNEDY, Demouy). PENALTY UTE Holding on FANO, Spencer enforced 10 yards from the BUF10 to the BUF20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:008% → 9%
UTAHDrive 4FG10 plays · 60 yds · 4:4692% → 91%
COLODrive 5TD5 plays · 59 yds · 2:509% → 14%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
90.8%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+13
90.7%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Michael Harrison for 13 yds to the UTAH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
90.5%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 10 yds to the UTAH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
85.9%
Jimmy Horn Jr. pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 30 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6FG11 plays · 61 yds · 6:3988% → 88%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
88.4%
Colorado Penalty, Roughing the Passer on MCLENDON II, Derrick enforced (15 Yards) to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
88.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson sacked by LaVonta Bentley for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 24Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
88.3%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Money Parks for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7FG9 plays · 52 yds · 1:1213% → 16%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
87.1%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Travis Hunter for 16 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+11
85.7%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Travis Hunter for 11 yds to the UTAH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
85.3%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Travis Hunter for 16 yds to the UTAH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4285% → 84%
Q3 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
83.7%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 50 yds , Dylan Edwards returns for no gain Colorado Penalty, Personal Foul (Taijh Alston) to the COLO 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3416% → 15%
Q3 13:11
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+5
84.8%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 5 yds to the COLO 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11TD9 plays · 62 yds · 4:2785% → 92%
COLODrive 12PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:149% → 8%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.8%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 1 yd to the COLO 26Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
91.9%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 3 yds to the COLO 30Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.3%
Mark Vassett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the UTAH 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13FG15 plays · 56 yds · 8:2592% → 96%
Q3 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+5
91.8%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 5 yds to the COLO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14TD9 plays · 84 yds · 3:524% → 19%
Q4 11:23
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+33
95.7%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Travis Hunter for 33 yds to the UTAH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
95.1%
STAUB, Ryan pass deep to the left complete for 21 yards to HORN JR., Jimmy caught at the UTE29 and advanced to the UTE28 (BATTLE, Miles). PENALTY BUF Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WASHINGTON, Savion enforced 5 yards from the UTE49 to the BUF46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+6
95.8%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Travis Hunter for 6 yds to the UTAH 48Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+5
95.2%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Travis Hunter for 5 yds to the UTAH 43Similar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+25
95.2%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Michael Harrison for 25 yds to the UTAH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
81.2%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Travis Hunter for 18 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15Uncategorized15 plays · 44 yds · 7:2590% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:31
Ryan Staub pass complete to Travis Hunter for 18 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-13.3
TD · Q3 7:10
Luke Bottari run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
+5.8
TD · Q2 8:17
Jimmy Horn Jr. pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 30 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-4.6