2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreCAL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:40 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds, downed at the UCLA 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:43: Dante Moore pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK) — UCLA win probability +9.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 5:21: Dante Moore pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 17 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST down — CAL win probability +15.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:10: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 14 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — CAL win probability +14.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
- FG · Q4 14:56: Mateen Bhaghani 32 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +3.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:35: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 13 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — CAL win probability +7.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 9CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 10:40UCLA 4th & 3 at CAL 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.3%52% to convertField goal74.2%−0.162% to makePunt73.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:25CAL 4th & 4 at UCLA 26, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snapGo for it27.6%48% to convertField goalTheir call27.5%−0.164% to makePunt26.5%−1.1average punt
- Q1 4:05UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snapGo for it70.6%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.7%average punt
- Q1 0:37CAL 4th & 8 at UCLA 19, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.2% before the snapGo for it29.9%−0.332% to convertField goalTheir call30.2%77% to makePunt28.0%−2.2average punt
- Q2 11:57UCLA 4th & 1 at CAL 20, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.4%71% to convertField goal65.0%−1.475% to makePunt60.6%−5.7average punt
- Q2 6:58UCLA 4th & 2 at CAL 5, down 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snapGo for it62.2%51% to convertField goalTheir call61.1%−1.192% to makePunt56.3%−6.0average punt
- Q2 3:45UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snapGo for it55.3%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.2%average punt
- Q2 0:58CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snapGo for it45.6%−1.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%average punt
- Q3 14:08CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 15, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snapGo for it57.7%−3.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.3%average punt
- Q3 10:40CAL 4th & 5 at UCLA 47, up 14Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snapGo for it68.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 6:43UCLA 4th & 1 at CAL 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt28.4%−2.6average punt
- Q3 4:49UCLA 4th & 13 at CAL 36, down 14Close callWent for it · 25.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.4%−0.821% to convertField goal26.2%42% to makePunt25.8%−0.4average punt
- Q3 2:50CAL 4th & 1 at UCLA 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.9%71% to convertField goal75.4%−4.642% to makePunt74.7%−5.3average punt
- Q4 14:56CAL 4th & 4 at UCLA 15, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snapGo for it82.7%46% to convertField goalTheir call82.7%−<0.183% to makePunt72.6%−10.1average punt
- Q4 11:33UCLA 4th & 17 at CAL 46, down 23Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.0%−0.514% to convertField goal3.1%−0.423% to makePunt3.5%average punt
- Q4 3:42CAL 4th & 3 at UCLA 3, up 23Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%44% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%−0.193% to makePunt98.1%−0.9average punt
- Q4 2:34UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 27, down 26Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 5:43UCLA Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.7%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:10CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.5%97% to makeGo for two56.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:35CAL Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUCLADrive 1INT14 plays · 55 yds · 5:5474% → 74%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for 9 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-4
74.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
74.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 6 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
74.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kyle Ford for 16 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+9
74.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 9 yds to the CAL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+5
73.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds to the CAL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
74.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 2 yds to the CAL 20Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
73.7%
Dante Moore pass intercepted, touchback. Craig Woodson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2FG8 plays · 54 yds · 3:3927% → 29%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
73.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 7 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+49
73.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 49 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+6
72.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 6 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1471% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4FG12 plays · 43 yds · 3:2030% → 33%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 19
OWN 29
+21
70.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
50
+15
69.9%
(03:23) MENDOZA, Fernando pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Jeremiah thrown to the UCL25, clock 03:19. PENALTY UCL Pass Interference on KIRKWOOD, Devin enforced 15 yards to the UCL35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
69.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+5
69.4%
UCLA Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5DOWNS11 plays · 52 yds · 3:3968% → 67%
Q2 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+14
68.7%
Dante Moore pass complete to Kyle Ford for 14 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
69.6%
UCLA Penalty, Illegal Snap on CLEMENS, Duke enforced (-5 Yards) to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+13
69.2%
Dante Moore pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 13 yds to the CAL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6INT5 plays · 24 yds · 1:4136% → 38%
Q2 11:19
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+5
63.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 5 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+15
63.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 15 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
62.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 1 yd to the CAL 47Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-15
62.0%
California Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeremiah Hunter) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7MISSED FG8 plays · 45 yds · 3:0767% → 63%
CALDrive 8INT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2940% → 41%
UCLADrive 9TD3 plays · 8 yds · 0:4265% → 74%
UCLADrive 10PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 1:3659% → 57%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
58.7%
Dante Moore pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 17 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-2
58.6%
Dante Moore sacked by Cade Uluave for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 44Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
56.9%
Will Powers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 2:4144% → 48%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
56.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 11 yds to the CAL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
54.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 11 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
52.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12FUMBLE1 play · -8 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13TD4 plays · 11 yds · 0:3753% → 68%
UCLADrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4761% → 61%
Q3 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-3
39.7%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Grayson Murphy for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16INT5 plays · 48 yds · 1:1439% → 39%
CALDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 2:0065% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18DOWNS15 plays · 59 yds · 5:4134% → 26%
Q3 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+19
31.5%
Dante Moore pass complete to Logan Loya for 19 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
30.8%
Dante Moore pass complete to Logan Loya for 11 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-7
29.7%
Dante Moore sacked by Ricky Correia and Xavier Carlton for a loss of 7 yards to the CAL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19FG11 plays · 48 yds · 4:4979% → 87%
CALDrive 20TD4 plays · 25 yds · 1:1389% → 97%
UCLADrive 21DOWNS7 plays · 34 yds · 1:574% → 3%
CALDrive 22FG13 plays · 51 yds · 7:4497% → 100%
Q4 4:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
1.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 1 yd to the UCLA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23END OF GAME14 plays · 51 yds · 3:360% → 0%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to Josiah Norwood for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
0.1%
Dante Moore sacked by David Reese for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 27Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+10
0.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 10 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
0.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to Carson Steele for 19 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+7
0.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to Braden Pegan for 7 yds to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
0.1%
Dante Moore sacked by Xavier Carlton for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 33Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+11
0.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 11 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+8
0.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to Carson Steele for 8 yds to the CAL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
0.1%
Dante Moore sacked by David Reese for a loss of 10 yards to the CAL 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:21
Dante Moore pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 17 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST down
-15.3
TD · Q2 0:10
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 14 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q2 5:43
Dante Moore pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)
+9.2