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ND

Notre Dame 56 at Stanford 23

STAN
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:25 · Justin Lamson run for 3 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior−29.0Home team on offense−20.0Score differential−11.4Garbage-time factor−6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:31: Tiger Bachmeier run for 14 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK) — STAN win probability +2.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:53: Audric Estime run for 6 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +2.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:19: Gi'Bran Payne run for 3 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +4.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:25: Audric Estime 5 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick) — ND win probability +5.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:08: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jordan Faison for 45 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +5.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:59STAN 4th & 9 at ND 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:22STAN 4th & 16 at STAN 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:23STAN 4th & 5 at ND 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:05STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:57STAN 4th & 10 at ND 38, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:57ND 4th & 1 at STAN 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%−1.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:25STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 34, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:17STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 46, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:41STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 45, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:41STAN 4th & 10 at ND 38, down 33
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:13ND 4th & 2 at ND 33, up 33
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:15STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 41, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 5:37ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:31STAN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:56ND Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:53ND Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:19ND Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:25ND Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:08ND Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:12ND Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:41ND Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:16STAN Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 4:015% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 5 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
5.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 4 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+49
5.2%
Justin Lamson run for 49 yds to the ND 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
5.2%
E.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 18
-7
5.2%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Marist Liufau and Javontae Jean-Baptiste for a loss of 7 yards to the ND 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 25
+9
5.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 9 yds to the ND 16Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
6.6%
Joshua Karty 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 39 yds · 1:0794% → 93%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
6.5%
Audric Estime run for 9 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
6.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 5 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+25
6.9%
Sam Hartman run for 25 yds to the STAN 36 Sam Hartman fumbled, recovered by STAN Jshawn Frausto-Ramos [SG] HARTMAN, Sam scrambles to the right for a gain of 25 yards, HARTMAN, Sam fumbled at STA36 forced by FRAUSTO-RAMOS, Jshawn, recovered by STA FRAUSTO-RAMOS, Jshawn at the STA36, returned 0 yards to the STA36, End of Play, clock 09:52.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:307% → 8%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
7.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 2 yds to the STAN 38Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+10
7.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 10 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
7.1%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 46Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 12
OWN 46
-4
7.0%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 4 yards to the STAN 42Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 16
OWN 42
0
6.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
7.8%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:4592% → 92%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
8.0%
Audric Estime run for 12 yds to the ND 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
8.0%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 35Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+26
8.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 26 yds to the STAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
7.7%
Audric Estime run for 39 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:148% → 10%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.9%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 1 yd to the STAN 26Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+53
7.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 53 yds to the ND 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
8.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the ND 20Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+10
8.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 10 yds to the ND 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
8.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
8.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 5 yds to the ND 5Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
8.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
9.7%
Joshua Karty 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6TD
2 plays · 30 yds · 0:3710% → 13%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
10.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 16 yds to the ND 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
12.5%
Tiger Bachmeier run for 14 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3588% → 89%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
11.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jordan Faison for 9 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
11.2%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
12.2%
Audric Estime run for 19 yds to the STAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
11.9%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
11.9%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+12
12.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 12 yds to the STAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
11.6%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the STAN 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+3
11.6%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the STAN 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
11.9%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 4 yds to the STAN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
10.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 15 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5112% → 13%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
12.3%
Ashton Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the STAN 25Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 5 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
12.7%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4387% → 87%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
12.8%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 24Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
13.1%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Che Ojarikre return for no gain to the ND 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2515% → 16%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
15.0%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
14.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
14.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+56
15.5%
Joshua Karty 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:0485% → 88%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
15.4%
Audric Estime run for 16 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
14.7%
Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
14.2%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the STAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
14.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
14.3%
Sam Hartman run for 6 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
14.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the STAN 38Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+10
14.9%
Audric Estime run for 10 yds to the STAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
13.8%
Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the STAN 21Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+15
13.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 15 yds to the STAN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.8%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12INT
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:2814% → 18%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
13.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the STAN 26Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
13.8%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
13.3%
DANIELS, Ashton pass short up the middle incomplete intended for ROUSH, Sam thrown to the STA29; QB hurried by LIUFAU, Marist. PENALTY NOT Roughing the Passer on LIUFAU, Marist enforced 15 yards from the STA26 to the STA41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
14.9%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 11 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
15.4%
Sam Roush run for 1 yd to the ND 47Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
15.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+15
14.8%
DANIELS, Ashton pass deep to the left incomplete intended for AYOMANOR, Elic thrown to the NOT3. PENALTY NOT Pass Interference on HART, Cam enforced 15 yards to the NOT32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
17.8%
Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nana Osafo-Mensah) to the ND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
11 plays · 56 yds · 1:0687% → 92%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
13.1%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
13.3%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 7 yds to the STAN 49Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+16
13.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 16 yds to the STAN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
13.0%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 9 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
12.9%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+12
13.1%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 12 yds to the STAN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
12.9%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+9
12.9%
Sam Hartman run for 9 yds to the STAN 3Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
8.1%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 3 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.3%
[NH] Kneel down by DANIELS, Ashton at STA24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3590% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.0%
Audric Estime run for 9 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
9.8%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
9.5%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
9.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+12
9.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jordan Faison for 12 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
9.4%
Audric Estime run for 16 yds to the STAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
9.4%
Audric Estime run for 13 yds to the STAN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
9.3%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the STAN 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+5
9.3%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
3.7%
Audric Estime 5 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:086% → 7%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
6.1%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Javontae Jean-Baptiste for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 22Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+12
6.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 12 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
6.3%
Justin Lamson run for 3 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
6.4%
Justin Lamson run for 6 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-1
6.7%
Justin Lamson run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 42Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
6.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Jayson Raines for 4 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
6.7%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
0.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jordan Faison for 45 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:271% → 1%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 11 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-13
0.6%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Nana Osafo-Mensah for a loss of 13 yards to the STAN 23Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 23
OWN 23
+12
0.6%
Ashton Daniels run for 12 yds to the STAN 35Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+10
0.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 10 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
0.6%
Justin Lamson run for no gain to the STAN 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 2:2999% → 100%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
0.7%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
0.7%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the STAN 36Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+6
0.7%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the STAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
0.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the STAN 25Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+25
0.4%
Audric Estime run for 25 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20MISSED FG TD
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:310% → 0%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.3%
Justin Lamson run for 3 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
0.3%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
0.3%
Justin Lamson run for 15 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
0.3%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for a loss of 6 yards to the STAN 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+25
0.3%
Justin Lamson pass complete to E.J. Smith for 25 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
0.3%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
0.3%
Justin Lamson run for no gain to the ND 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
0.3%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+60
0.1%
Javontae Jean-Baptiste 60 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:200% → 0%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Ari Patu pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Ari Patu pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+23
0.1%
Ari Patu run for 23 yds to the STAN 48 Ari Patu fumbled, recovered by ND Ramon Henderson [NHSG] QB Keeper PATU, Ari rush up the middle for a gain of 23 yards, PATU, Ari fumbled at STA37 forced by SNEED, Jaylen, recovered by NOT HENDERSON, Ramon at the STA48, returned 0 yards to the STA48, End of Play, clock 12:21.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
0.3%
Steve Angeli pass intercepted Spencer Jorgensen return for 9 yds to the ND 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:580% → 0%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
0.1%
Ari Patu run for 7 yds to the ND 40Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-10
0.1%
SMITH, E.J. rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the NOT38 (BOWEN, Drayk). PENALTY STA Holding on ROGERS, Levi enforced 10 yards from the NOT40 to the STA50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 13
50
+11
0.1%
Ari Patu pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 11 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
0.1%
Justin Lamson run for 3 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
0.1%
Ari Patu pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
0.1%
Ari Patu run for no gain to the ND 36Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+16
0.1%
Ari Patu pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 16 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
0.1%
Ari Patu pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 10 yds to the ND 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
0.2%
Stanford Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ari Patu) to the ND 15Similar
Q4 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
0.2%
Ari Patu run for 7 yds to the ND 8 for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Christian Gray) to the ND 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.2%
Justin Lamson run for 4 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
0.2%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the ND 33Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
0.2%
Gi'Bran Payne run for no gain to the ND 33Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
0.2%
Ben Krimm punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryce Farrell at the STAN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
0.1%
Beau Nelson pass complete to E.J. Smith for 8 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 2
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Beau Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+4
0.1%
Ryan Butler run for 4 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.1%
Beau Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.1%
Beau Nelson run for 6 yds to the STAN 41Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Beau Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Beau Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
0.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 16 yds to the STAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
0.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the STAN 20Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+6
0.1%
Jadarian Price run for 6 yds to the STAN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
0.1%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Xavier Watts) to the STAN 19Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+1
0.1%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the STAN 18Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 18
0
0.1%
Kneel down by ANGELI, Steve at STA19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:08
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jordan Faison for 45 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-5.8
TD · Q3 10:25
Audric Estime 5 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)
-5.6
TD · Q2 0:19
Gi'Bran Payne run for 3 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com