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ARIZ

Arizona 59 at Arizona State 23

ASU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:08 · Ian Hershey punt for 44 yds , Jacob Cowing returns for 12 yds to the ARIZ 40 Jacob Cowing fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Jaden Clark Hershey,Ian punt 44 yards to the UA 28 Cowing,Jacob return 12 yards to the UA 43 fumbled by Cowing,Jacob at UA 43 forced by Taylor,Alphonso recovered by UA Clark,Jaden at UA 40, End Of Play.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Home team on offense−11.9Pregame prior−22.0Score differential−6.4Garbage-time factor−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:53: Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK) — ASU win probability +3.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:45: Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +2.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:26: Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +4.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:16: Michael Wiley run for 22 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +2.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:12: Michael Wiley run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +8.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 11:57ARIZ 4th & 3 at ASU 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:08ASU 4th & 13 at ASU 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:17ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:08ARIZ 4th & 10 at ASU 25, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:19ASU 4th & 11 at ARIZ 47, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:55ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 33, up 37
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 8:30ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 39, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:42ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 13, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 7:53ASU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:45ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:26ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:16ARIZ Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:12ARIZ Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:42ARIZ Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:29ARIZ Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:08ARIZ Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:04ASU Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:53ASU Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:54ARIZ Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:0383% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
17.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 13 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
17.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for no gain to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
17.4%
Michael Wiley run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+30
17.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 30 yds to the ASU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
17.4%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
17.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 7 yds to the ASU 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
17.4%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
18.7%
Tyler Loop 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:0419% → 22%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
18.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 31Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
18.9%
Jalin Conyers run for 9 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
18.9%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 12 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
19.0%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+39
19.0%
Jalin Conyers run for 39 yds to the ARIZ 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
19.1%
Jalin Conyers run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.4%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0878% → 78%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
21.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wiley,Michael rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UA 31 (Torrence,Ro) PENALTY UA Holding (Pulido,Raymond) 10 yards from UA 25 to UA 15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
21.8%
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
21.9%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+20
22.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 20 yds to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
21.5%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
21.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 15 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+37
21.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 37 yds to the ASU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
21.1%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
21.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the ASU 3Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
22.4%
PENALTY ASU Roughing The Passer (Green,B.J.) 15 yards from UA 35 to UA 50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 4:3522% → 24%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
22.2%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ASU 9Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+3
22.2%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 12Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+10
22.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Conyers,Jalin rush left for 4 yards loss to the ASU08 (Stukes,Treydan) PENALTY UA Holding (Manoa,Tyler) 10 yards from ASU12 to ASU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
22.3%
PENALTY UA Disconcerting Signals (Manoa,Tyler) 5 yards from ASU22 to ASU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 5
OWN 27
0
22.9%
Jalin Conyers run for no gain to the ASU 27Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-4
22.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST down Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Messiah Swinson) to the ASU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
24.2%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to Troy Omeire for 7 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
24.9%
Jalin Conyers run for 5 yds to the ASU 25Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
24.1%
Ian Hershey punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the ARIZ 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5TD
2 plays · 61 yds · 0:4477% → 81%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+57
23.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 57 yds to the ASU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
19.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6INT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:3020% → 21%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
19.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 8 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
20.2%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Skattebo,Cam) 5 yards from ASU33 to ASU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
20.0%
Jaden Rashada pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+22
19.4%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 7 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST down Arizona Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Manu) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
50
+5
20.7%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 5 yds to the ASU 45Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+16
20.0%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 16 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
20.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 13
OPP 42
0
20.5%
Jaden Rashada pass incomplete to Troy OmeireSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
20.5%
Jaden Rashada pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:4079% → 83%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
20.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 20 yds to the ARIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
19.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
19.8%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+11
20.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
19.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 23 yds to the ASU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
17.1%
Michael Wiley run for 22 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0216% → 15%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
16.2%
Cameron Skattebo run for 11 yds to the ASU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
16.3%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
16.2%
Jaden Rashada pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-5
16.1%
Jaden Rashada sacked by DJ Warnell Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the ASU 28Similar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+12
15.4%
Ian Hershey punt for 44 yds , Jacob Cowing returns for 12 yds to the ARIZ 40 Jacob Cowing fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Jaden Clark Hershey,Ian punt 44 yards to the UA 28 Cowing,Jacob return 12 yards to the UA 43 fumbled by Cowing,Jacob at UA 43 forced by Taylor,Alphonso recovered by UA Clark,Jaden at UA 40, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5683% → 92%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.2%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
17.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+9
17.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 9 yds to the ASU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
16.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 16 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
16.6%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the ASU 27Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+26
16.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 26 yds to the ASU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.9%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Montana Lemonious-CraigSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.7%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5512% → 10%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.6%
Jaden Rashada run for 1 yd to the ASU 26Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
11.5%
Jaden Rashada pass incomplete to Giovanni SandersSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
10.2%
Jaden Rashada pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
10.2%
Josh Carlson punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARIZ 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 0:3593% → 96%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
7.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Michael Wiley for 14 yds to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
6.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 9 yds to the ASU 47Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+26
6.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 26 yds to the ASU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
4.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Michael Wiley for 21 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:114% → 4%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Jaden Rashada pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
3.8%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to Troy Omeire for no gain Troy Omeire fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Jacob Kongaika No Huddle-Shotgun Rashada,Jaden pass complete short left to Omeire,Troy for 0 yards to the ASU25 fumbled by Omeire,Troy at ASU25 forced by Maldonado,Gunner recovered by UA Kongaika,Jacob at ASU25, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2396% → 95%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
4.0%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Montana Lemonious-CraigSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
4.1%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
4.0%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
4.6%
Tyler Loop 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:084% → 4%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
3.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 12 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
3.7%
Jaden Rashada run for 18 yds to the ARIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:523% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
3.2%
Cameron Skattebo run for 7 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
3.5%
Jaden Rashada pass intercepted Gunner Maldonado return for no gain to the ASU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3997% → 98%
Q3 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
2.9%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the ASU 8Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
1.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 8 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:102% → 1%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
1.9%
Kyson Brown run for 12 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
1.9%
Arizona Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jacob Manu) to the ARIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
2.1%
Jalin Conyers run for 5 yds to the ASU 49Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 15
OWN 49
-6
1.9%
Jaden Rashada sacked by Jacob Manu for a loss of 6 yards to the ASU 43Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 21
OWN 43
+10
1.9%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to DeCarlos Brooks for 10 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
1.4%
Jaden Rashada pass incomplete to Troy OmeireSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
1.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the ASU 49Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
1.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 7
50
+50
1.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 50 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:041% → 1%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
1.1%
Cameron Skattebo run for 10 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST down Arizona Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Kevin Green Jr.) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
1.1%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
1.1%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 42Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
1.1%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to Tevin White for 4 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
1.2%
Tevin White run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 6
50
+6
1.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
1.2%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 21 yds to the ARIZ 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
1.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+9
1.2%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 9 yds to the ARIZ 12 for a 1ST down Arizona Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Kevin Green Jr.) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
1.3%
Kyson Brown run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 9Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
1.3%
Jaden Rashada run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.8%
Jalin Conyers run for 1 yd for a TD (J. Conyers Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0999% → 99%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
0.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fifita,Noah rush right for 8 yards gain to the UA 33 (Green,B.J.), out of bounds PENALTY UA Holding (Savaiinaea,Jonah) 10 yards from UA 25 to UA 15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+9
0.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 9 yds to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
0.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
0.9%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+36
0.8%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ASU 45 , Melquan Stovall returns for 36 yds to the ASU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
0.5%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 1 yd to the ASU 46Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
0.5%
Jaden Rashada pass incomplete to Troy OmeireSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+10
0.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 10 yds to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
0.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
0.5%
Jaden Rashada run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+31
1.0%
J. Rashada pass to T. Omeire for 31 yds for a TD,Arizona penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (K. Green Jr.) declined (D. Brooks Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22INT
10 plays · 82 yds · 5:1399% → 100%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
0.7%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 15Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+11
0.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 11 yds to the ARIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
0.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 7 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
0.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 4 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
0.6%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+30
0.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 30 yds to the ASU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
0.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 26 yds to the ASU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.6%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the ASU 5Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.3%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Travion Brown return for no gain to the ASU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Jaden Rashada pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Jaden Rashada pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+6
0.3%
Cameron Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
0.2%
Cameron Skattebo pass incomplete to Jalin ConyersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 4:36100% → 100%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
0.2%
Rayshon Luke run for 3 yds to the ASU 42Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+4
0.2%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the ASU 46Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 17
OPP 46
+18
0.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 18 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+24
0.2%
Michael Wiley run for 24 yds to the ASU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
0.2%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the ASU 1Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.2%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the ASU 1Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
0.1%
George Hart III run for no gain to the ASU 13Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+3
0.1%
Jaden Rashada pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 3 yds to the ASU 16Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+3
0.1%
George Hart III run for 3 yds to the ASU 13Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
0.1%
Josh Carlson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the ARIZ 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
0.2%
Nazar Bombata run for 11 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
0.2%
Kneel down by Arizona at ASU45 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-1
0.2%
Kneel down by Arizona at ASU46 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:12
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q2 13:26
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
-4.1
TD · Q1 7:53
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com