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UCLA

UCLA 38 at USC 20

USC
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:40 · Denis Lynch 25 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Home team on offense−3.8Pregame prior+12.2Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:46: Ethan Garbers pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK) — UCLA win probability +4.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:01: Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 74 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +4.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:45: Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK) — UCLA win probability +12.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:29: Alex Johnson 11 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Glessner Kick) — UCLA win probability +12.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:21: Blake Glessner 35 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +6.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:31USC 4th & 1 at USC 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:36USC 4th & 5 at USC 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:27UCLA 4th & 21 at USC 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:12UCLA 4th & 7 at USC 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:51UCLA 4th & 6 at USC 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:02USC 4th & 10 at USC 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:12UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:40USC 4th & 8 at UCLA 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−8.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:57UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−1.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:33USC 4th & 7 at UCLA 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    19.9%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:51USC 4th & 17 at UCLA 17, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−3.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−9.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:21UCLA 4th & 6 at USC 17, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−9.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:16USC 4th & 2 at USC 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.5%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:58UCLA 4th & 3 at USC 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−1.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:27USC 4th & 14 at UCLA 30, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:15UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:46UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:01USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:45UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:29UCLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:06UCLA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:52USC Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2973% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
72.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 15 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
72.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 8 yds Brenden Rice fumbled, recovered by USC Brenden Rice (14:29) [NHSG] WILLIAMS, Caleb pass short to the left complete for 8 yards to RICE, Brenden caught at the USC44, RICE, Brenden fumbled at USC48 forced by HUMPHREY, John, recovered by USC RICE, Brenden at the USC48, returned 0 yards to the USC48, End of Play, clock 13:58 (After review, play stands as called on the field).Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-1
72.7%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 47Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
72.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 2 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 1
OWN 49
-1
72.5%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:1128% → 31%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
72.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 9 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+13
71.9%
Ethan Garbers run for 13 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
71.6%
TJ Harden run for 4 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+16
71.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 16 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
71.3%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
71.2%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.4%
TJ Harden run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3970% → 69%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
69.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 25Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
68.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:1032% → 33%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
68.5%
TJ Harden run for 12 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
68.0%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
67.7%
Ethan Garbers run for 6 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+6
67.5%
TJ Harden run for 6 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
66.9%
Carson Steele run for 19 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
66.7%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the USC 27Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
66.4%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 32Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 15
OPP 32
0
66.5%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 15
OPP 32
-6
66.8%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Jack Sullivan for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 21
OPP 38
0
67.0%
Will Powers punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 10Similar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
67.0%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3267% → 67%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+6
66.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 6 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+8
66.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds Zachariah Branch fumbled, recovered by UCLA Kenny Churchwell III (03:47) [NHSG] WILLIAMS, Caleb pass short to the left complete for 8 yards to BRANCH, Zachariah caught at the USC15, BRANCH, Zachariah fumbled at USC19 forced by CHURCHWELL III, Kenny, recovered by UCL CHURCHWELL III, Kenny at the USC19, returned 0 yards to the USC19, End of Play, clock 03:40 (Play was confirmed after review).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:5435% → 40%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
65.2%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
65.2%
Ethan Garbers run for 5 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
60.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:3961% → 61%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
61.1%
(02:23) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass short up the middle complete for 4 yards to LLOYD, MarShawn caught at the USC29 and advanced to the USC29 (JOHNSON, Alex), clock 02:15. PENALTY USC Holding on PREGNON, Emmanuel enforced 10 yards from the USC25 to the USC15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
60.8%
Caleb Williams pass intercepted Devin Kirkwood return for no gain to the USC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3741% → 41%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
59.3%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
58.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
58.8%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
59.1%
Will Powers punt for 41 yds, downed at the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
7 plays · 99 yds · 2:0360% → 63%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+14
59.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Duce Robinson for 14 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
59.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 1
OWN 24
0
59.5%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the USC 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
58.8%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
58.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
58.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+74
62.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 74 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10MISSED FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 6:0337% → 43%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
62.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Ryan Cragun for 3 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
62.2%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+6
62.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 6 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
60.8%
TJ Harden run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
60.8%
Keegan Jones run for no gain to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+12
61.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Ryan Cragun for 12 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
59.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 4 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+10
59.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 10 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
58.5%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Jaylin Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+19
58.5%
TJ Harden run for 19 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
57.3%
Keegan Jones run for 4 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
56.8%
Ethan Garbers run for no gain to the USC 17Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
55.4%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+36
56.8%
Blake Glessner 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4458% → 55%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
58.0%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-3
57.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 18Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+2
56.1%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
55.2%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4545% → 44%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.1%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
55.4%
TJ Harden run for 1 yd to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
55.3%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
56.4%
Will Powers punt for 50 yds, downed at the USC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13MISSED FG
15 plays · 78 yds · 3:2756% → 51%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
55.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 15 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
56.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
55.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+14
54.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 14 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
57.1%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+31
56.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 31 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
58.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+13
58.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 13 yds to the UCLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
58.2%
Zachariah Branch run for no gain to the UCLA 6Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
58.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 8Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
57.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
56.1%
Denis Lynch 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
50.7%
(01:37) GARBERS, Ethan pass to the right complete for 13 yards to LOYA, Logan caught at the UCL30 and advanced to the UCL33 (SMITH, Jaylin), out of bounds, clock 01:32. PENALTY UCL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HABERMEHL, Hudson enforced 5 yards from the UCL20 to the UCL15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:3248% → 48%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+5
51.6%
TJ Harden run for 5 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
51.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 7 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-4
50.1%
Ethan Garbers sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
52.3%
Will Powers punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 0:4853% → 58%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
52.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 3 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+11
52.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 11 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
54.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+33
53.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 33 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
57.1%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
57.1%
UCLA Penalty, Offsides (Gabriel Murphy) to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+5
57.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 5 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
57.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-6
57.0%
Caleb Williams sacked by Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 17Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 16
OPP 17
+34
58.2%
Denis Lynch 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.2%
(00:02) [NH] Kneel down by UCL at UCL24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
16 plays · 65 yds · 5:1543% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
56.6%
TJ Harden run for 6 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
55.0%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
55.1%
TJ Harden run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
50
+5
53.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
53.5%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the USC 44Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+13
53.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 13 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
52.4%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
52.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for 9 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
52.6%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
51.0%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
50.8%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+11
52.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 11 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
48.6%
Carson Steele run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 7Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
48.2%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
35.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
23.6%
Alex Johnson 11 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Glessner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 5:3226% → 23%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
26.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 12 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
26.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 6 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-15
26.0%
(08:14) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass deep to the right complete for 16 yards to LANE, Ja'Kobi caught at the UCL13 and advanced to the UCL13 (HUMPHREY, John), out of bounds, clock 08:12. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on LANE, Ja'Kobi enforced 15 yards to the UCL44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 19
OPP 44
+2
24.0%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 17
OPP 42
+10
22.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Duce Robinson for 10 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+24
22.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 24 yds to the UCLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
23.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
22.9%
Caleb Williams sacked by Laiatu Latu for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 12Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
20.7%
Caleb Williams sacked by Laiatu Latu for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 17Similar
Q3 3:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
22.5%
Denis Lynch 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20FG
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:2481% → 91%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
18.6%
TJ Harden run for 4 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+58
18.4%
TJ Harden run for 58 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
15.2%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the USC 21Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
15.0%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+4
15.5%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
8.9%
Blake Glessner 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0514% → 12%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.6%
(01:17) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass short to the right incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Tahj thrown to the USC29, clock 01:12. PENALTY UCL Pass Interference on MEDRANO, Kain enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the USC29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
13.7%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the USC 29Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
12.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Duce Robinson for 5 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+3
12.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Duce Robinson for 3 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+1
11.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 1 yd to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22TD
10 plays · 38 yds · 5:0194% → 99%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
6.4%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
6.4%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+4
6.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 4 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+6
6.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 6 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
5.3%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+1
4.7%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the USC 18Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+4
4.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 4 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
4.1%
TJ Harden run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 15Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
4.0%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+15
0.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:141% → 3%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
0.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 33Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+22
0.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 22 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
0.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
0.3%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
0.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+16
0.3%
(06:02) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Kyron thrown to the UCL29, clock 05:57. PENALTY UCL Pass Interference on KIRKWOOD, Devin enforced at the spot of the foul for 16 yards to the UCL26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
0.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 4 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
0.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-8
0.3%
Caleb Williams sacked by JonJon Vaughns for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+23
0.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 23 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
3.3%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 15 yds · 3:1198% → 99%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
2.0%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+4
1.7%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+9
1.6%
Carson Steele run for 9 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
1.1%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
1.0%
(00:37) Kneel down by UCL at UCL26 (team loss of 2), clock 00:32.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:45
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q3 9:29
Alex Johnson 11 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Glessner Kick)
-12
FG · Q3 1:21
Blake Glessner 35 yd FG GOOD
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com