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CAL

California 27 at Stanford 15

STAN
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:47 · Fernando Mendoza run for 3 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Home team on offense−11.5Pregame prior−5.6Score differential−4.5Garbage-time factor−3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:13: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 54 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — CAL win probability +7.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:45: Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — CAL win probability +12.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:25: Tiger Bachmeier 41 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — STAN win probability +12.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:46: Joshua Karty 50 Yd Field Goal — STAN win probability +6.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 10:19: Jeremiah Hunter 8 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CAL win probability +16.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 11CAL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:34CAL 4th & 2 at STAN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:59CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:35STAN 4th & 8 at CAL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:22STAN 4th & 20 at CAL 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:25STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:25CAL 4th & 3 at STAN 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−1.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:14STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:41CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:54STAN 4th & 6 at CAL 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:23CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:34STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:21CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:15STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:47CAL 4th & 1 at STAN 39, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−3.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:47CAL 4th & 1 at STAN 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−2.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−6.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:49CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 25, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:46STAN 4th & 4 at CAL 32, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.3%−1.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−3.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 7 at STAN 31, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−2.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:19STAN 4th & 8 at CAL 45, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−0.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:27STAN 4th & 10 at CAL 35, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 0 of 1CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:03CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:13CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:45CAL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:25STAN Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:19CAL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    87.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:2663% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
36.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
36.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
36.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 16 yds to the STAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
36.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
36.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+13
36.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 13 yds to the STAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
36.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
36.6%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the STAN 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+8
36.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 8 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+1
37.7%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 1 yd to the STAN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0738% → 38%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
38.0%
E.J. Smith run for no gain to the STAN 23Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
38.0%
Bryce Farrell run for 8 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
37.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
38.1%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:2862% → 61%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
38.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 18 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
38.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
38.1%
Fernando Mendoza run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 38Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
38.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+34
39.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 34 yds , returns for no gain to the STAN 43 , returns for no gain to the STAN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2439% → 39%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
39.4%
E.J. Smith run for 12 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
39.6%
E.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the CAL 44Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+1
39.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 1 yd to the CAL 43Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
39.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
39.3%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:3261% → 65%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
39.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the CAL 17Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
39.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+15
39.5%
Stanford Penalty, Personal Foul (Tristan Sinclair) to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+32
38.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 32 yds to the STAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
38.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 11 yds to the STAN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
38.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 11 yds to the STAN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
35.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 9 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 4:4137% → 39%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.6%
Justin Lamson run for 4 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
36.7%
E.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
36.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 5 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
36.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Jackson Harris for 2 yds to the STAN 38Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-10
36.9%
Stanford Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the STAN 34Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
36.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+31
36.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 31 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
38.1%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 19 yds to the CAL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
38.1%
E.J. Smith run for no gain to the CAL 16Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
38.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-10
37.6%
DANIELS, Ashton scrambles to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the CAL5 (ELARMS-ORR, Kaleb), out of bounds. PENALTY STA Holding on PALE, Simione enforced 10 yards from the CAL16 to the CAL26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 20
OPP 26
0
37.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 20
OPP 26
+44
38.6%
Joshua Karty 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:4761% → 68%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 8 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
38.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
39.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
38.9%
MENDOZA, Fernando pass up the middle incomplete intended for ENDRIES, Jack broken up by FRAUSTO-RAMOS, Jshawn at the CAL47. PENALTY CAL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SWINNEY, Bastian enforced 5 yards from the CAL37 to the CAL32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+9
39.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 9 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
38.4%
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CAL 36Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+10
39.8%
MENDOZA, Fernando pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HUNTER, Jeremiah thrown to the STA21. PENALTY STA Holding on MANLEY, Zahran enforced 10 yards from the CAL36 to the CAL46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
31.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 54 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4833% → 32%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 3 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
33.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 3 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
33.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for no gain to the STAN 31 Stanford Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
32.4%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:4468% → 70%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 1 yd to the CAL 26Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
32.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 14 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
31.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 11 yds to the STAN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
31.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
31.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+1
31.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the STAN 42Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+4
32.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 4 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-25
30.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted for a 1ST down Zahran Manley return for 25 yds to the STAN 13 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, Personal Foul (Tristan Sinclair) to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2731% → 29%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
30.6%
Ashton Daniels run for 7 yds to the STAN 26Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-1
31.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 25Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
30.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
29.2%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 49 yds , returns for no gain to the CAL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3369% → 69%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
30.8%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 20Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+11
31.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 11 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-5
30.6%
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CAL 26Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
30.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
30.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12FG
13 plays · 27 yds · 3:4730% → 33%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
30.4%
Caleb Hampton run for 2 yds to the STAN 40Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
30.5%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the STAN 44Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+6
30.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
50
+3
31.3%
E.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
31.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 6 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
31.5%
Justin Lamson run for 2 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
30.7%
Ryan Butler run for 1 yd to the CAL 38Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
30.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
30.4%
DANIELS, Ashton pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BACHMEIER, Tiger thrown to the CAL10. PENALTY STA Holding on MCLAUGHLIN, Connor CAL Pass Interference on LITTLEJOHN, Matthew , Offsetting penalties [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+3
30.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 3 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
32.6%
Joshua Karty 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3169% → 69%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
31.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
32.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 9 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
31.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 yds, downed at the STAN 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
29.8%
[NH] Kneel down by STA at STA7 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2630% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-15
30.3%
Stanford Penalty, Personal Foul (E.J. Smith) to the STAN 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+9
30.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 9 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
29.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
28.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1372% → 70%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
28.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 8 yds to the CAL 37Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
27.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-9
28.0%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Anthony Franklin and Tobin Phillips for a loss of 9 yards to the CAL 28Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
30.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bryce Farrell at the STAN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0630% → 28%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
29.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
29.5%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the STAN 26Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
28.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
27.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:3073% → 88%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
27.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 19 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
26.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-3
26.2%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 45Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+6
26.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
28.0%
Fernando Mendoza run for 3 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
26.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
25.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 2 yds to the STAN 32Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+5
26.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 5 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
27.8%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the STAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
24.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 11 yds to the STAN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
24.1%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:2017% → 31%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
17.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 15 yds to the STAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
18.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 19 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
31.4%
Tiger Bachmeier 41 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3673% → 73%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
26.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the CAL 32Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-7
26.8%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Gaethan Bernadel and Lance Keneley for a loss of 7 yards to the CAL 25Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
27.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Bryce Farrell at the STAN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0330% → 38%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
29.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
29.0%
Ashton Daniels run for 7 yds to the STAN 48Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+14
30.0%
Ashton Daniels run for 14 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
31.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
31.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the CAL 32Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
31.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+50
38.2%
Joshua Karty 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2771% → 91%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
28.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 16 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.6%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
27.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 15 yds to the STAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
25.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 9 yds to the STAN 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-2
25.1%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+3
26.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the STAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
25.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
25.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
26.2%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+21
28.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 21 yds to the STAN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
25.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the STAN 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
25.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 1 yd to the STAN 8Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
8.7%
Jeremiah Hunter 8 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:5214% → 10%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
13.9%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 28 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
15.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
15.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 6 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-4
15.6%
Ashton Daniels sacked by David Reese and Brett Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 45Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+10
14.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 10 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
17.7%
Ashton Daniels run for 7 yds to the CAL 28 Ashton Daniels fumbled, recovered by STAN [NHSG] QB Keeper DANIELS, Ashton rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards, DANIELS, Ashton fumbled at CAL30 forced by WILLIAMS, Nohl, recovered by STA RAINES, Jayson at the CAL28, returned 0 yards to the CAL28, End of Play.Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
18.0%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-2
16.6%
Ashton Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 30Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 5
OPP 30
-5
15.2%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (Luke Baklenko) to the CAL 35Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
9.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24END OF GAME
15 plays · 56 yds · 6:2793% → 98%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
6.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+8
6.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 8 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
5.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
5.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+8
6.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Ashton Stredick for 8 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
3.4%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 4 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
3.1%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 2 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+4
3.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the STAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
3.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the STAN 24Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+19
3.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 19 yds to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
3.0%
[NH] Kneel down by CAL at STA7 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.1%
[NH] Kneel down by CAL at STA9 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:19
Jeremiah Hunter 8 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-16.4
TD · Q3 4:25
Tiger Bachmeier 41 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+12.9
TD · Q3 5:45
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com